Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Archive for May, 2008

May 2008 Update on Global Temperature, Part 4 – NCDC Predicted Anomalies

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 29, 2008

So, I ran my little predictive algorithm against the NCDC data, and I thought I’d throw these out so that I can either be publicly humiliated or take credit where due.

The following table predicts future temperature anomalies based on the analysis of how X-month trend line slopes change using the NCDC data.   It uses weighting factors going back 11 years.   Here are the results:

  60-month 120-month 180-month 240-month 300-month
May 41.5 44.8 47.3 52.3 56.0
June 44.5 48.1 50.2 46.0 59.9
July 49.1 42.3 55.4 48.7 56.0
August 45.4 38.8 63.8 47.6 53.0
September 43.0 46.1 73.5 47.2 56.0
October 32.6 46.0 60.1 54.3 57.0
November 50.4 60.1 80.8 72.9 45.5
December 35.6 53.3 68.9 49.0 66.0
January 58.4 58.90 78.9 84.5 75.0
February 52.6 51.95 84.3 64.0 81.5
March 31.1 65.90 58.9 59.6 64.8
April 38.2 55.90 60.0 67.0 77.5

 

  360-month Average Avg Excl Hi/Lo Median
May 50.0 48.6 48.6 48.7
June 52.0 50.1 49.1 49.1
July 50.5 50.3 50.9 49.8
August 52.5 50.2 49.6 50.0
September 47.5 52.2 49.2 47.4
October 44.5 49.1 50.4 50.1
November 46.0 59.3 57.4 55.3
December 41.0 52.3 52.3 51.1
January 63.0 69.8 68.9 69.0
February 57.0 65.2 63.8 60.5
March 44.0 54.0 56.8 59.2
April 52.0 58.4 58.7 58.0

 

So there you go.  I’ll continue to track the results going forward to see how I do, and how far out this model seems to have predictive capability – if any.

Posted in Climate Change, Earth, Global Warming, Temperature Analysis, Weather | Leave a Comment »

May 2008 Update on Global Temperature, Part 3 – NCDC Data

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 28, 2008

Up until now, I have used the GISS data in the analyses I’ve presented.  However, my intentions all along were to analyze all the different temperature measures.   Since I have a life outside of this realm, that will be done as time allows.

In the meantime, I have expanded my model for the GISS Predicted Anomalies.  You can find the update here.

Having crossed that bridge, my next task was moving on to work with a close cousin of the GISS, the NOAA (NCDC) data.  The data set with the monthly anomaly information can be found here.   This data set is a “close cousin” to GISS because they are determined largely the same way.   Both measure temperature averages from surface stations and use much of the same readings.  The difference will be in the final smoothing/estimation algorithms from the raw data.

Not unexpectedly, the results are similar.  The overall slope since 1880 is 0.0426, which is just over a half-degree warming per century.   This is in line with GISS (slightly lower in actual value).   The latest flat/cooling period using NCDC goes back to February 2001, only a one-month difference from GISS, which dated back to March 2001.   These charts are presented below.
Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Cycles, Earth, Global Warming, Science, Temperature Analysis, Weather | Leave a Comment »

Bombs that are good for us

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 28, 2008

Under the category of “there’s no real good reason for me to write about this other than I thought it was ironic” comes this story about new bomb technology.

The irony is that we’re talking about items that are specifically built to blow things and people to kingdom come, but we’re attempting to do so in an environmentally friendly way. From the article:

TNT, RDX and other explosives commonly used in military and industrial applications often generate toxic gases upon detonation that pollute the environment… To make safer, more environmentally friendly explosives, scientists in Germany turned to a recently explored class of materials called tetrazoles… In initial experiments, G2ZT and HBT produced fewer toxic byproducts than common explosives. Still, they did generate some dangerous hydrogen cyanide gas. But mixing these compounds with oxidizers not only avoids making hydrogen cyanide, but also improved performance, Klapötke said.

These compounds have great potential, “especially for large caliber naval and tank guns,” Klapötke added.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Environmentalism, Military, News, Technology | Leave a Comment »

Why Alaska Hates Polar Bears

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 27, 2008

After all… if the Governor of Alaska is suing to pull the newly-tabbed “threatened” Polar Bear off that list and she is the elected representative of that state, then the logical question is “Why do you hate Polar Bears so much?”

Yes, I’m being sarcastic.

A lot has been said about our fuzzy white friends to the north lately. Are they really threatened? Is it true that the population has increased over the last 25 years? Can they really drink a Coke while sliding down a hill? And what ever happened to those unfortunate cubs that floated off into the ocean on a block of ice, like Yukon Cornelius avoiding the abominable snow monster (which, come to think of it, kind of looks like a 4-year-old’s rendition of a Polar Bear).

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Alaska, Animal Stories, Animals, Arctic, Climate Change, Current Events, Global Warming, News, Polar Bears, Politics | Leave a Comment »

Joe Bastardi’s Open Letter to the Pols

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 25, 2008

Joe Bastardi has an opinion. I thought it was well stated, so I thought I’d share.

Please follow the link to the full text of the letter here.

 

Dear _______

The nonsense that is the global warming debate can be likened to a Don King production, where the two main antagonists, well deserved ones at that, are still hours away from the main fight. Instead, we have under-cards that leave us simply wondering if we will ever get to the real deal.

I use the fight game because in boxing in past days, guys went right at it. Jake La Motta and Sugar Ray Robinson once fought each other within a few weeks of a fight. There was no dancing and ducking and big mouthing, just the fight against the guys that deserved to be in the ring.

This is exactly how this should be handled. Mr Obama, can the Al Gore as an advisor on the environment. Mr. McCain, quit succumbing to pressure because you want to look nice or moderate. Both of you, get the people that can give this debate its true merit in front of you. Hillary, if you are elected, the same thing (you got to admit, she is showing some Lady Thatcher or Golda Meir spunk these days). But stop with watching people that aren’t the main event.

Within the first 100 days of office, get the top five SCIENTISTS on both sides of the issue in front of you in the oval office and let them argue it out. No cameras, no press, just you, your closest advisors, and the people that are qualified to do this. Have trusted members of both sides of the aisles, but get the politics out of it.

The polar bear situation should push Americans over the edge. The long term population has increased. In addition, the cold this winter may simply be a preview of what is coming. That we are basically going to make it illegal to get oil, from an area that can perhaps help us get off foreign oil, because of yet another problem that may not exist, should be enough to clear the air and reveal that there are alot of people supporting this position that are not driven by the science, but what may be an almost fanatical madness, and that should resonate with people. Sir or Mam, if you are absolutely convinced, after seeing people who don’t think polar bears are as important as the people you are elected to serve, that argue out the science, then commit the American people on a path that will basically spend their hard-earned money on a problem our chief rivals are probably simply paying lip service too, then I will support you. But if you have doubt, after clearing away the feelings and looking at the facts, then by proceeding you will put yourself in a rush to judgement before the facts are clear that has left many Americans disillusioned about our nation in other matters.

This is not a matter of politics, it is not a matter of feelings. It is a matter of science and facts and educated men squaring off and displaying their knowledge. A non-conclusive answer in this matter is no answer at all, and no mandate to perhaps send us on path that could affect the chance for the very people we should have the most compassion for, to improve their lot.

Yours very truly,

Joe Bastardi

Posted in Campaign Trail, Current Events, Global Warming, News, Politics, Weather | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Current Blog Ranking…

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 23, 2008

Last time I checked, according to www.alexa.com, I was ranked 3,361,298.   As a numbers and trends guy, I just find it fun to keep track of how this changes, and to see if I’m heading in the “right” direction!   And I am!   I just checked, and I am now ranked 3,020,549!

Woo hoo!

Hey…  I realize this isn’t anything to write home about, but it’s still fun to watch.  Here’s to cracking the top 3 million!  Spread the good word.

Update as of 5/27/2008: 3,016,127! I can just taste the promised land…
Update as of 5/28/2008: 3,016,041! Inch by inch…

Posted in Blog Ranking, Blogging | Leave a Comment »

Predicted Anomalies: Results and Updates

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 17, 2008

Here were the predicted anomalies from last month, as found in this post.


MONTH    60-Month  120-Mo.    180-Mo.    240-Mo.    300-Mo.    360-Mo.    AVG   AVGX   MED

April 08      38.90      41.34        51.10       45.30       43.70        46.50      44.5    44.2   44.5

 
As I previously wrote, the actual anomaly was 41 for the month of April. I’ve only just started this method, so I can’t make any bold claims about success quite yet, but it’s a nice start.

So, moving on with the same method (I’ve added a couple additional weighting points, which I hope to continue to do moving forward) I have updated my predictions for the next 12 months. Here they are, shown by each individual trending method (n-number of months in the trend) and an average, average excluding high and low, and the median values.

Month 60-month 120-month 180-month 240-month 300-month
May 50.4 43.0 32.3 46.3 35.3
June 65.3 30.8 52.7 34.7 54.5
July 48.7 33.0 45.0 43.5 53.0
August 36.5 46.7 55.2 50.2 53.7
September 31.6 66.9 72.1 43.2 34.5
October 24.0 57.9 45.5 48.2 58.5
November 47.9 58.0 56.2 84.2 46.0
December 29.7 52.4 51.1 62.5 74.1
January 61.6 82.45 51.0 101.5 61.9
February 39.3 36.25 61.8 71.0 68.2
March 41.6 79.05 37.1 50.3 26.3
April 49.1 80.60 28.3 74.6 66.2

 

Month 360-month Average Avg Excl Hi/Lo Median
May 34.0 40.2 39.6 39.1
June 56.5 49.1 49.6 53.6
July 39.6 43.8 44.2 44.3
August 73.8 52.7 51.5 52.0
September 53.1 50.2 49.4 48.2
October 53.2 47.9 51.2 50.7
November 42.0 55.7 52.0 52.0
December 58.1 54.6 56.0 55.2
January 72.9 71.9 69.7 67.4
February 80.4 59.5 60.1 65.0
March 46.2 46.8 43.8 43.9
April 47.0 57.6 59.2 57.6

 
Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Cycles, Earth, Global Warming, Life, Science, Temperature Analysis, Weather | 1 Comment »

May 2008 Update on Global Temperature, Part 2

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 15, 2008

Here are a few of the charts that paint a better picture of the current trend lines in the data. As one responder notes to me, and correctly so, there is only limited value in looking at linear trends when it comes to temperature. The trends themselves are constantly changing, which is what I have discussed numerous times when explaining my predictive methodology. Given that they are constantly changing, there really is not, in fact, a linear trend. I think it’s most accurate to say that there is a very long-term trend that can be approximated by the overall historical linear trend (although, in truth, that is also not linear. The long-term trends cycle as well. But these centueis-long and millennium-long cycles can be shown fairly well with a linear trend. In fact, if I fit different polynomials, I think the result is worse because even 128 years of data is too small of a segment to get a good read on the overriding underlying long-term curve). Now, on top of that long-term, generally linear trend, we have other cycles that appear. I call them cycles, and not trends, because I do not believe the last 30 years was any long-term trend, just as the 30 years before that was, etc.

This can really be seen fairly clearly from the overall historical chart. I think it is legitimate to say there is a natural increasing temperature, but at a fairly benign rate of 0.56 degrees Celsius per Century. This will not go on into perpetuity, but it is likely to continue forward in our lifetimes. Perhaps the rate is slowing a tad, or increasing a tad, but it will not accelerate or decelerate on a dime. Just my opinion.

The long-term trend is shown below. The R-squared is actually fairly good. In fact, it is even better than the 30-year trend we hear so much about (not shown, that r-squared is around 0.5):
Overall Historical Trend Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Current Events, Cycles, Earth, Global Warming, Science, Temperature Analysis, Weather | 2 Comments »

May 2008 Update on Global Temperature, Part 1

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 14, 2008

GISS has released its data, found here. This post represents my initial data review. I will be following up with updated charts, and updated predicted anomalies.

The April temperature anomaly is 41. This is within the bounds of a reasonable value when compared to the RSS and UAH data, though a little on the higher side. Interestingly, the anomaly for March of 67 was reduced to 60, which is a pretty large adjustment. It would appear that late-reporting data came in significantly more on the cooler side than what was originally estimated. Even with the adjustment, it is a historically high deviation from the satellite data (based on a cursory analysis on my part. I hope to address this more fully at some point in the future).

Let’s take a look at the predicted anomaly based on the model I had put together. You can find that post for a complete discussion of the predicted values. To take a closer look at the methodology, go here.

To summarize: I predicted anomalies based on changes in trend lines and past weighting factors, etc. I tested 60, 120, 180, 240, 300, and 360 month trend line shifts and determined the predicted values based on anticipated future shifts in the trend line. I also presented the average, average excluding high and low, and the median.

The results are pretty good (for this month, anyway). The predicted values were, respectively, 39, 41, 51, 45, 44, 47, 45, 44, and 45. The actual anomaly, as I said, was 41. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Current Events, Earth, Global Warming, Science, Temperature Analysis, Weather | 5 Comments »

Update on my Traffic Ranking… Thanks!

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 11, 2008

I occasionally check out http://www.alexa.com, which measures the traffic of web sites and ranks them. Last time I posted on this, I was ranked around #6.1 million. My goal was to crack the six million mark. Thanks to you readers, searchers, or just random folks who have stumbled onto the site and have no interest in my ramblings whatsoever, my ranking has skyrocketed! I am now listed with a rank of #3,361,298!

Do I dare aim my sights even higher? Top 3 million? I say yes. Keep hope alive. Vote for change. Spread the word. Top 3 million, here I come!

Posted in Blog Ranking, Blogging | 1 Comment »

 
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