July 2008 Update on Global Temperatures – UAH

I don’t have a predictive spreadsheet put together yet for the UAH anomalies either, but let’s see how this tracks with the RSS results.

The latest UAH anomaly is -0.114. On the heels of a -0.183 reading for May, this is the steepest 2-month negative anomaly since Sept/Oct 1993. It’s the lowest 3-month anomaly since 1997. The latest reading gives 10 consecutive year-over-year anomalies that are lower than previous year. The last such stretch was in the period beginning May 1999. The negative trend line goes back to July 1997 – exactly 11 years.

The latest 12-month average anomaly = 0.090, which is the lowest 12-month value since the period ending March 2001. It is the coldest June since 1999, and the ninth coldest June of the 30 records.

UAH doesn’t break the regions down quite as finely as RSS. But the general trends in the tropics and the NH vs SH seem to be consistent. I won’t go into detail on any of that as I did on the RSS.

July 2008 Update on Global Temps – RSS

Even though I don’t have a predictive spreadsheet put together yet for the RSS anomalies, I still like to take a quick look at it and put the latest readings in context from a pure data perspective.

The latest RSS anomaly is 0.035. Historically, this is a fairly middle-of-the-road reading. It is the 13th coolest June of the 30 Junes on record. In more recent context, it is another cooler reading compared to the last few years. It is the coolest June since 1999 (-0.091). It now extends to 10 months the year-over-year anomalies that are lower than the previous year’s. The last such consecutive stretch dates back to the period beginning May 1999 and ending February 2000.

Looking at either the last 6, 7, or 8 month average anomalies (the point at which the recent spate of anomalies showed a drop to where they have since remained) provides the same answer as to the last time we have seen a stretch as cool as the current level: the period ending June 1997.

The cooling trend now extends back to May 1997.

It is also interesting to look at some of the regional measures. The tropics are showing their eighth consecutive negative anomaly. The last such stretch was the period beginning December 1999.

The Northern Hemisphere above the tropics still shows a positive anomaly of +0.316. So, from an overall historical perspective, it’s still on the warm side, but from a recent perspective it is cooler. It is the 5th coolest overall such anomaly since January 2005, and it is the second coolest June since 1997.