For those of you wondering where the HadCrut analysis is, thank you for your patience. I wanted to put a quick note out here explaining the delay.
First and foremost, the hours I would normally set aside for this work has been gobbled up by my day job. As many of you know, I am an actuary. What you may not know is that I work for an AIG subsidiary. You may have heard a little about AIG on the news lately… um, yeah…
Let me be clear about one thing… I had NOTHING to do with any of this! OK, seriously, though. Due to issues of compliance and regulations and politics and everything else, I really can’t provide intricate details of what’s going on. Nor can I represent the company publicly in matters of financial stability. I do, however, feel pretty safe in saying that the insurance operations for which I work are on solid footing, and really are separate and distinct from the area of the company that has created the current firestorm. That may be difficult for the average person who has no reason to know how or why this is true, but it is nonetheless very true.
However, perception becomes reality. Thusly, AIG gets hammered in the news, and most people don’t think to dig into all the numbers and figure out whether or not there are differences between insurance and investments and financial services and so on. And who can blame them? But it creates issues and frustration for those of us who are trying to steady the ship. At the moment, I am involved in a lot of analysis trying to determine exactly what the financial impacts to all of this may be to my division. That’s about all I can say about that. But wish me luck.
Secondly, I did manage to spend some spare time updating the HadCrut models and cranking away on the updated numbers, only to find out after it was all done that I had wasted those hours on a faulty assumption that I had built into the estimation process. I have since had to re-tool the whole thing to ensure it is working properly, and I just completed that portion of things tonight (while I was canning tomatoes and paying bills – yes, I was doing all three things at once. This has been my life lately. And have I mentioned that I have seven kids? Sheesh.)
Anyway, I hope to have the HadCrut analysis up this weekend. I apologize for the delay.