September 2009 Update on the AMO

I’ve looked at the AMO data set to see what it’s been up to lately, and after a brief plunge into negative territory, it’s come back to a level in accordance with the current sine wave path of the cycle. If you recall, there was a period of 77 consecutive months of positive AMO anomalies, with January 2009 finally breaking that string of positives. We then had 5 consecutive negative anomalies. Historically, such a deviation is not necessarily unexpected, as can be easily enough seen from chart observation. However, it was not an expectation for a persistent state, and we’ve now seen the last three anomalies come in at 0.175, 0.282, and most recently 0.205.

While these are positive anomalies, viewing them relative to the red wave line on the chart shows us that they are right around what would normally be expected.

When looking at certain Oceanic oscillations, the cycle is very clear, and the strength of a given anomaly should be placed in the context of the overall wave path. Deviations from the wave are a stronger indication of the unusualness of an anomaly than the actual value of it.

As I’ve noted in my previous write-ups, we’re nearing the peak of the wave. We should expect many more positive AMO anomalies. In fact, we should expect more positive AMO anomalies for the next 20 years (well, sort of – I’ll explain why this is probably shortened artificially in a bit). Since the wave is at its peak, we will soon see continually cooler anomalies for the next 34 years or so. However, the next few years will still be positive, but dropping.

Here’s the chart:

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Data as of 200908

Maybe it’s just me, but this is one of my favorite charts. Admittedly, the change in it is nearly imperceptible on a month-by-month or quarter-by-quarter basis. But one reason I present it occasionally is because I think it really tells a good story.

The story begins with the cyclicality, which is very evident. This, combined with ENSO and PDO (and I’ll keep looking at other indices) show a clear cyclicality in Ocean Temperatures. In my humble opinion, this should raise a red flag with regard to temperature correlations to anyone who even remotely wishes to get to the truth of what drives global temperatures. Making this cyclicality more clear is the fact that the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations do not show this behavior at all. Click on the link related to the Arctic to read more about the PDO and ENSO cycles as well.

The next story is, where are we in the cycle? As I’ve alluded to, we are at the peak of the cycle. That means that the anomaly has, on average, risen continually for over the last 30 years. The most rapid point of acceleration of the wave occurs in the early-mid 1990s. Since then, it’s been increasing at a decreasing rate. In a couple years, it will start decreasing at an increasing rate for the next decade and a half.

The AMO is about a quarter-phase out of sync with the PDO (Again, see link above – click on the word “Arctic”). Thus, the PDO has been decreasing over the last number of years. As we’ve seen in the Temperature Charts we’ve been flat for about 12 years now, and we’ve actually seen decreasing temperatures over the last handful of years. This seems to correspond will with an AMO that is only slightly increasing and a PDO that is cooling off more rapidly.

Antarctic Oscillation

I thought I’d start taking a look at the different Oceanic Oscillations to see if there’s anything at all I can glean from the data.

The first set of data is the AAO Index data which goes back to 1979 here. This could be a mistake, but I pulled in data from this source for the pre-1979 numbers. The reason I say it could be a mistake is because the latter source’s numbers do not match all that well to the former’s. This puts the pre-1979 data in question as it relates to the newer data. And, as the chart results came into view, I think we see that splicing this data probably does more harm than good. With that said, I have kept it in for this view of the data, but may choose to eliminate it in future reviews.

We’ll start here with the raw data, and a fitted line that I will explain:

Antarctic Oscillation Data as of 200908

The current anomaly value is -0.686, which is the fourth consecutive negative anomaly. Previously, there were 11 consecutive positive anomalies.

The line on the chart isn’t actually a linear fit, though it is very close. It is actually a best-fit sine wave. However, there are no short-term waves evident in the data, so the best-fit wave is a long-term wave that completes a 360-degree phase over 12,000 years. Obviously, trying to make a strong case for a 12,000 year cycle is a bit silly based on 60 years of data. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to consider that the earth’s precession of the poles moves along this approximate time period. It’s also worth noting that this same approach on the Arctic Oscillation yielded a sine wave of 9500 years. I make no assertions as to the accuracy of this, I just find it a point of interesting congruence.

So, with a 12,000 year fitted wave, the 60 years essentially has a linear fit associated with it. In the chart, it is clearly an upward trend. However, observe the differene between the pre-1979 and post-1979 areas of the chart.

Two things are apparent: (1) the volatility in the anomaly values is much higher prior to 1979, and (2) the upward trend occurs in the pre-1979 data.

Putting numbers to these observations:
1) The Standard Deviation of observations for the data prior to 1979 is 1.749. The standard deviation for 1979 – current is 0.988. The average positive anomaly prior to 1979 is 0.960. The average positive anomaly 1979-current = 0.746. The average negative anomaly pre-1979 is -1.778. The average negative anomaly for 1979-current is -0.830.

2) The slope from 1948 – 1978 represents warming of 5.26 degrees Celsius per Century. The slope from 1979 – current represents 0.68 degrees warming per Century.

It seems pretty clear that the data prior to 1979 is a different animal than post-1979.

The NOAA and Claims of the Highest August Ocean Temperature

I was going to write a post on this whole thing, but before I did, I decided to scan some of the otehr blogs. It would appear that I have little to add to this, so I am gooing to link to them instead.

Here’s the basic summary: NOAA announced that we’ve just seen the highest Ocean Surface temperatures in, like, ever! Here’s the link at Watts giving us that story.

Jeff at The Air Vent also provided us with a skeptical take on the announcement. His post has since been updated, to now refer to ICECAP’s Joe D’Aleo, who summarizes the now-discovered issue:

Icecap Note: to enable them to make the case the oceans are warming, NOAA chose to remove satellite input into their global ocean estimation and not make any attempt to operationally use Argo data in the process. This resulted in a jump of 0.2C or more and “a new ocean warmth record” in July. ARGO tells us this is another example of NOAA’s inexplicable decision to corrupt data to support political agendas.

Bob Tisdale now has a guest post on Watts Up With That, showing the incongruence in NOAA’s assessment versus others.

This is so blatant, it’s almost amazing.

Whatever one’s thoughts on climate change, nobody should stand for such shoddy science, changes in methodology, and exaggerated statements of “fact.”

It does nobody any good.

The Real Cost of Cap and Trade

There is a lot of stuff flying around for and against the Cap-n-Trade Scheme that dares to lurk as a possibility for enactment. So, what do the internal goverment memos say about it? I’ve heard it won’t really cost anything. And it’s green. If it’s green, it must be good, right? Yeah. We like green. Go into a store now and you’ll find green everything. It’s green because batteries last 10% longer, or because it used 5% less energy. It’s green because it’s made with 10% recycled plastic. We just moved into a new corproate office not long ago, and I’m pleased to let everyone know that it’s green. Ironically, they damn A/C is always on too high, and I’m one of the few who seems to think it’s a waste of energy, even though I’m not really a “greenie” because I don’t buy into global warming.

But I digress.

In a Washington Times article we get the scoop, thanks to the Freedom of Information Act:

Officials at the Treasury Department think cap-and-trade legislation would cost taxpayers hundreds of billion in taxes, according to internal documents circulated within the agency and provided to The Washington Times.

Huh. Go figure. Who’d have thought that this might actually cost us money?

The Global Warming Solution is… (drum roll please)… Spraying Clouds With Seawater!

Yes, it’s true. Making big, white, puffy clouds even bigger, whiter, and puffier is the latest brainchild of the ignoramuses who consider themselves to be elite thinkers. Oh, I’m sorry… is that too judgmental? Excuse me: the proposed solution is the latest theoretical benchmark in the climate change debate. Better? I wouldn’t want to offend anyone.

So, apparently the answer is to spray saltwater into clouds. But don’t let me explain it. Here’s the story:

We’ve Solved It! And it only took until lunch time!

…So how would they fix the global climate threat? How about keeping global temperatures in check by spraying clouds with drops of seawater to help make them bigger and whiter and more reflective of the sun’s rays. That’s the conclusion of a small panel of very acclaimed economists assembled by the Copenhagen Consensus, the Nobel-heavy brain trust assembled every year by Bjorn Lomborg, the iconoclastic author, to tackle the world’s problems.

Update on What’s Going on in the Tropics – RSS

Continuing my series (Antarctica, Arctic) of looks at the more regional breakdown of the RSS Temperature Anomaly Data, I am now moving on to the Tropics.

This is actually a fairly interesting region to observe. This, along with the Antarctic(ish) region was a contributor to the higher July anomaly.

Data Point
The July anomaly was 57.90 units (where 1 unit = 0.01 degrees Celsius). This was a pretty warm anomaly, ranking 14th out of 367 total observations in the data set, and ranking tops as the warmest July on RSS record (31 years of records). The increase over last July was 54.10 units, and the increase over June 2009 was 36.1 units. It would have been a great time for your equatorial vacation if you like running around in a Speed-o (note to readers: I do not wear a Speed-o).

It should be noted that the overall average anomaly in the data set is actually 6.27, and not zero. So, if one considers the overall average to be the point of departure from which an anomaly should be measured, the values are slightly overstated. Not as much as in the Arctic, but overstated nonetheless. This may seem conniving, but I don’t read much into it. Restating all historical anomalies every month to consider the latest average makes it difficult for the casual reviewer to come to grips with trends, and since all values would be changing, some may question whether or not the change is anything more than a readjustment to baseline. No, it probably is best to make only the occasional adjustment if and when the average drifts too far from zero. In this case, I probably would leave the Tropics as is. One could probably argue that the Arctic baseline should be changed and the anomalies adjusted, but it all really only matters if you let the perception of a high number cloud the issue. Unfortunately, too many people – including those who probably know better – will tend to look at the magic number of 100.00, for example, and freak out about the high number.

Streaks
One of the interesting things I noted in the anomaly record was the tendency of this region to have some persistency in relative temperature. Starting with April 2004, we saw a stretch of 9 consecutive months where the anomaly was cooler than previous year. That was followed by a stretch of 9 consecutive months with anomalies warmer than previous year. After that, we had a stretch of 12 consecutive months where the anomaly was cooler than previous year. In the next year, 10 of the 12 months were warmer than previous year. Then, we saw 12 consecutive months of anomalies that were cooler than previous year. We are now in the midst of a stretch of warmer-than-previous-year anomalies, with July being the 10th consecutive such month.

Averages
Thanks to the last couple higher anomalies, the 12-month average is 15.3, which is the highest average since the year ending January 2008. The 12-month average reached a low of -13.1 10 months ago and has steadily increased since then to current level.

Trends:

Overall:

RSS TROPICS Overall Trend Line

Update on Arctic Temperature – RSS July Anomaly

Since the Arctic always seems to be the “hot” discussion point in the discussion of climate change and global warming (does it seem unusual to anyone else that a discussion of a supposed global phenomenon almost always seems to come back to a discussion of melting ice in the Arctic?) I thought I’d provide an update on the Arctic charts. Since I’ve already mentioned the ice, let’s see what that’s up to (from the IJIS data – link on the right):

IJIS Arctic Ice Extent

I posted this on a comment on The Air Vent but I’ll repeat it here:

Anyway, in looking at the IJIS chart (not only above, but the current one) it seems pretty much as expected. I’m going to reference a post I made in early June: http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2009/06/04/quick-hit-post-on-the-arctic-ice/

Where I said this: “As of today, June 4, it is below the 2003 level, but holding in second position. As an aside, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this tail off quite a bit and dip below most of the years again. Looking at 2008 this happened, but not to the extent that it melted in 2007. It can reasonably be expected that the ice just won’t jump by leaps and bounds at maximum melt, while still in an increasing mode. So, 2009 may well dip below normal before it’s said and done, but my own guess is that it will still end up higher than 2008, thus continuing the upward trend.”

Unless we get some serious meltage going on soon, it looks like I’ll be right. Am I proud? Not really. It’s pretty much common sense along with a rudimentary understanding of Physics, energy requirements, and heat transfer. One doesn’t need to be an expert to look at the temperature trends along with 2007 ice levels and develop the idea that there will be a likely slow positive accumulation of ice over time.

So, what do I mean by these temperature trends? I mean, it’s warming in the Arctic, right?

Let’s take a look. All data is directly from the RSS data link that is located on the right, under resources. I suppose if you believe it to be bogus, you can take it up with them…

Misleading Graphs?

As anyone with a blog knows, WordPress (and I’m sure the other blog sites) do a nice job of showing you how people got to your site. Under the “blog stats” area, if activity is generated from a link to your page, it gives you a trackback to the link. This allows the interested blogger to check back and see who posted the link, and in what context.

I’m sure a guy like Anthony Watts has enough of these links pointing to his site that he doesn’t have time to check them out. But since my traffic is a small fraction of his, I often take a few minutes to check out and see what someone found interesting enough to provide a link for. It’s always kind of fun when I see it’s to something like “www.theenvironmentsite.com”.

Occasionally, there will be comments that I’d kind of like to respond to, but not enough that I want to sign up for the site or anything, so I just let it flow out into the ether.

Well, yesterday there was, in fact, a link to an environmental discussion forum. Predictably, some guy was spouting off about “deniers” and how they are being dishonest because it’s now proven beyond any reasonable doubt that there is anthroprogenic global warming.

August 2009 Update on Global Temperature – RSS

Don’t look now, but I’m actually posting a temperature update!

We’re looking at the July anomaly release for Global RSS Data. 

Data Point

The July anomaly was 0.392 (or 39.2 in terms of 0.01 C, which is what I’ll use).  This is an increase of 23.4 units over last year’s anomaly, and an increase of 31.1 units over June’s anomaly.   Perhaps that El Nino that everyone started talking about a while back has had an impact?

Rank

This is the 3rd highest July anomaly in the RSS data, of 31 observations. (90th percentile)

It is the 26th highest anomaly overall in the data set, of 367 observations. (92nd percentile).

It is the 1st most aggravating anomaly for me to observe.  July was miserably cold, with record low highs in Wisconsin.   I’m simply not catching a friggin’ break with the warmer anomalies.   Dear God: If we’re going to be warm, that’s OK.  Please afflict Wisconsin with some of it.  Thanks!

Average

The 12-month average anomaly ending July 2009 was 20.3.  This is now the highest 12-month average since February 2008.

Streaks

After hitting a low with negative anomalies last year, we are now experiencing a streak of 8 consecutive months where the year-over-year anomaly is higher than previous year.

Trends

Overall Trend since inception of RSS data

Recent Non-Warming Trend - over 12 years

Hey! I found last month’s HadCrut notes!

As I was catching up on some things that I haven’t been able to get to lately because of all the otehr crap I have going on, I decided I had to actually pay my bills.  As much as I’d like to put that job off longer, I realize that certain things need to take place as they – in Covey-speak – shift into “Quadrant 1.”

Lo and behold, as I sifted through all the things that cost me money, and deliberated about the intelligence of some of our spending decisions, I found a piece of paper with a bunch of notes scribbled on it.   I blurted out something about HadCrut and it was one of those moments where the wife sees excitement in me where none should reasonably exist.  At these moments, she gets this look on her face, as if to pat me on the top of the head and say “Dear boy, is this truly what you’ve become? ”

Bah!  How can one NOT appreciate a bunch of numbers on a page summarizing temperature trending?   Seriously.   No…  really.