Arctic Temperatures Since the mid-90s – Climate Sanity

I ran across a recent post on Climate Sanity that I thought was an interesting follow-up to my Arctic update using the RSS anomaly data.

To summarize my post: one can plainly see that since 2001, the RSS anomalies have declined on an overall basis, with the rate of decline being steeper the shorter the time frame. Beyond that, the linear best-fit on all longer periods is increasing. My analysis was done on the RSS data from latitude 70-85, which should cover things pretty well (though there is that pesky 5 degrees that isn’t covered). It is based on a best-fit of the anomalies on a month-by-month basis through July 2009. The satellite data goes back to 1979.

Our friends at Climate Sanity have looked at the DMI data by going through a process of extracting data from graphs.

The overall conclusions seem pretty similar if you read the post (linked above in the first line – or click on the link under my blogroll. I have not asked permission to duplicate the post here, so I’ll provide reference links instead.) Fitting linear trends yields overall warming on longer periods, but the highest slope occurs from the mid-90s to current.

Update on Arctic Temperature – RSS July Anomaly

Since the Arctic always seems to be the “hot” discussion point in the discussion of climate change and global warming (does it seem unusual to anyone else that a discussion of a supposed global phenomenon almost always seems to come back to a discussion of melting ice in the Arctic?) I thought I’d provide an update on the Arctic charts. Since I’ve already mentioned the ice, let’s see what that’s up to (from the IJIS data – link on the right):

IJIS Arctic Ice Extent

I posted this on a comment on The Air Vent but I’ll repeat it here:

Anyway, in looking at the IJIS chart (not only above, but the current one) it seems pretty much as expected. I’m going to reference a post I made in early June: http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2009/06/04/quick-hit-post-on-the-arctic-ice/

Where I said this: “As of today, June 4, it is below the 2003 level, but holding in second position. As an aside, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this tail off quite a bit and dip below most of the years again. Looking at 2008 this happened, but not to the extent that it melted in 2007. It can reasonably be expected that the ice just won’t jump by leaps and bounds at maximum melt, while still in an increasing mode. So, 2009 may well dip below normal before it’s said and done, but my own guess is that it will still end up higher than 2008, thus continuing the upward trend.”

Unless we get some serious meltage going on soon, it looks like I’ll be right. Am I proud? Not really. It’s pretty much common sense along with a rudimentary understanding of Physics, energy requirements, and heat transfer. One doesn’t need to be an expert to look at the temperature trends along with 2007 ice levels and develop the idea that there will be a likely slow positive accumulation of ice over time.

So, what do I mean by these temperature trends? I mean, it’s warming in the Arctic, right?

Let’s take a look. All data is directly from the RSS data link that is located on the right, under resources. I suppose if you believe it to be bogus, you can take it up with them…

Quick hit post on the Arctic Ice

Very quick post here: Click the link to the right (IJIS) to check out the latest Arctic ice extent. As of today, June 4, it is below the 2003 level, but holding in second position. As an aside, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this tail off quite a bit and dip below most of the years again. Looking at 2008 this happened, but not to the extent that it melted in 2007. It can reasonably be expected that the ice just won’t jump by leaps and bounds at maximum melt, while still in an increasing mode. So, 2009 may well dip below normal before it’s said and done, but my own guess is that it will still end up higher than 2008, thus continuing the upward trend.

What I wanted to point out, however, is this little jump that occurs on June 1 of each year. Why does that happen?

I was curious, and looked into it a bit, and what I learned was that there is an adjustment that occurs at that point. During the winter, satellite readings of open water accurately decipher it as open water. During the spring melt, however, pools of water can start to form on the ice, and satellites may start to read these pools as open water. This assumption is made in the satellites prior to June 1. As of June 1, an adjustment is made to recognize this pooling of water on the ice, and so the ice extent increases a bit. This happens every year, so we see a little jump on June 1 each year.

What I couldn’t find was the date for the counter adjustment in the late fall/early winter, which I’m assuming has to occur at some point in order for there to be a consistent spring adjustment made. Nor does the chart seem to indicate what that date may be. My guess is it’s December 1 (6 months offset).

I’m uncertain as to why they don’t just always make that same adjustment. If it’s exceptionally warm for a bit, and there is pooling earlier than normal, a pre-June reading will understate ice extent. It seems to me that if the criteria for determining whether or not some water is open ocean or a swimming pool are good, the season shouldn’t matter.

But what do I know? Anyway, just wanted to share that little tidbit.

What Giveth in the Ice Debate? (Southern Hemisphere)

Maybe some of you intelligencia can shed some light on this for me… This post is nothing earth-shattering, not data driven, and is not particularly original. But I’ve been musing. And what I’ve been musing is that, whatever your personaly belief is about Anthropogenic Global Warming, Environmentalism, Stewardship of our Planet, or whatever else, there is also the need for honest assessment of the facts. Sometimes these facts are comfortable to our preconceived notions, and sometimes they are not.

Back to my analogy… the concern on my end is continually throwing stupid policy after stupid policy (tax and regulation, banning light bulbs, carbon trading, banning lamb meat from UK restaurants, and so on) to solve a non-existent problem. With each step we take, it centralizes more authority and control into the hands of a few, it creates inefficiency, and reduces freedoms, rights, and choices. Seriously… 20 years ago, did we ever imagine that we’d live in a country where the sale of incandescent light bulbs would be friggin’ illegal?

Suppose I think that a certain stock that has dropped will rebound. There are conflicting reports as to its outlook, but I’ve decided to ignore the negative ones. I invest in it. It drops again. I still believe in it, and despite the poor earnings and financial results, I continue to think it’s a winner, so I pour more money in. It drops some more. Damn it, it will come back. I know it will. So I pour everything I have into it. When the company declares bankruptcy, only then will I realize that believing in something in the face of contrary facts, and acting on that belief can have dire consequences.

So, this could be applied to a number of things in the climate debate. Some things seem less clear than others. For example, we have a 12-year flat trend line in global temperatures, using RSS data, but within that period, the last 10 years is actually upward sloped, as are the longer-term periods. Reasonable people on both sides can offer facts that support their opinions, while the honest person will acknowledge that the final answer is not clear. Is the current period a true flattening? The start of a reversal? Or simply a lull in the path of more warming to come?

But then there’s the Southern Hemisphere Ice. And it’s simply mind-boggling to me that the data is basically ignored. Not only is it ignored, but when one piece of the Antarctic shelf is cleaving or melting, it makes the news. Absent in the report is the overall picture. I won’t go into all that, especially since anything I could do would pale in comparison to the work that Jeff has done at the Air Vent (link to the right). Here’s one such example, but he has a plethora of work that he has done reconstructing and analyzing the reports that supposedly somehow showed Antarctic warming, despite increasing ice and decreasing temperatures over the last 30 years.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics…

But all one has to do is look at the charts. Click on the chart to get a bigger version. Here they are (all charts come from http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu and are linked on the right of the page):

This chart shows the anomalies. For those of you in Palm Beach, a positive anomaly means more ice than typical (defined as the average from 1979-2000).

I asked my 3rd grader if this chart seems to be going up from left to right or down. He said up. My 3rd grader seems more astute in his observation skills than some scientists who don’t like that answer.

This chart shows the ice area over the last year. Again, there is an anomaly line below. That red part above the flat black line = higher.

I suppose you can quibble about the fact that, at this point this year, the ice level isn’t as high as it was last year.

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to an Ice-Free North Pole

It would appear that the North Pole is not cooperating with the kayakers who want to go straight through from Canada to Russia.  This, according to IJIS:

Despite the hot air emanating from politicians who continue to tell us the ice cap is melting, the current level of ice is at a peak for this time of year based on recent history.

Data only goes back a few years, so I’m not claiming any records. But it’s worth pointing out in the context of the message of the day that the ice cap is melting.

Why can’t we just be honest about things?   A couple years ago, the ice extent most certainly hit a trough.  That was an accurate assessment.  And boy, did we hear about it.   Currently, ice extent is at a peak.   Crickets. I’m finding a lot of lack of integrity enters when it comes to this issue. (That cuts both ways at times. I have my own opinions about things, but let’s confront the data for what it is and not brush it under a rug.)

Theory is great and all, as are people who become experts.  But quite honestly, I trust the data and some simple analysis more than I trust all these complex uber-theoretical models.  They may have some assessment value, but their predictive value has time and time again been worthless.

Fastest Arctic Ice Growth…

Jeff at The Air Vent has done some work and noticed that something interesting has happened in the Arctic. You know how we heard all about that “Fastest ice melt ever” that sent the AGW proponents into a panic a while back? Well, interestingly (but not surprisingly), they seem to have neglected to inform us that the reverse has occurred in recent months.

Check out his post, Arctic Sea Ice Increases at Record Rate.