I suppose I should post something…

So much to do, so little time.  I seem to have somehow misplaced my HadCrut notes in the midst of my life.

 

For giggles, here’s a little “Life Update” that has absolutely nothing to do with climate, although I may add that it’s been very nice here lately, with perfectly warm temperatures that makes one yearn for more.

So, let’s see… 

1) I’ve managed to let my analysis here slide while I continue to forge ahead with my FOREX experimentation.  This is taking anywhere from an hour to 2 hours a day, but lately is looking as if it may bear fruit.  Only time will tell, as the market can turn on you in a hurry.   I’ll update you occasionally.  I’m an honest guy, so I’ll tell you right now that I am down in my account, but not as much as I was 2 weeks ago.  You really shouldn’t trade real money before you know what you’re doing, but it’s tough for me to really take it seriously otherwise.  But I don’t recommend it unless you just truly have some disposable income that you can afford to lose.   I’m still breathing!   I have started  a trading journal online that I’ll point you to some day if my current strategy continues in success.  (Big IF at this point, but we’ll see.)

2) Had to take some family time around the 4th of July.  Hope all had a happy Independence Day.

Here’s Where I’ve Been…

It has been a while. I thank you for your patience. Any of you who grew accustomed to coming here for my updated numbers deserve my sincerest apologies for dropping out of sight. Going forward, please continue to check in occasionally. Perhaps on a bi-weekly or monthly basis. I will not be posting as frequently as in the past for the foreseeable future, but do plan on posting more than I have in the past month or two (which is basically nothing).

I believe I owe it to you to explain why this sudden switch in my habits occurred. I do so knowing in advance that many will see my time spent foolishly. I’m fine with that.

This really started last September. I have posted in the past that I am employed by a particular company that has basically taken about as large as a beating from the press and politicians as imaginable. Much if this well deserved, and much of it not. I am not here to denigrate my employer nor am I here to defend it in all aspects. And, fortunately, I am somewhat insulated by all the goings-on because of the particular entity I work for.

However, while not a lot has personally changed for me on the exterior, a lot has changed in how I see my place in the world. My company is a very solid operation, but nonetheless has its own vulnerabilities, particularly if there is an extended economic downturn. And, personally, I believe that, in the next 5-10 years, the current issues we are experiencing will be child’s play. I am not here to ask anyone to agree with me or subscribe to my political philosophy. But I must share my viewpoint here to better outline why I’ve been up to what I’ve been up to.

With the bailouts in September and October, our system changed. This was not a good thing, in my view. Then, after the abominable (in my view) stimulus package, we threw ourselves over the cliff. I firmly believe that we will see a short-term (1-3 year) bump from this, and then the day will come where China and other stakeholders stop supplying loans to us, and worse yet – calls their existing loans back – and we will be absolutely devastated. We will have two options: default, or print trillions of dollars on top of what we are already printing. In a very short time, the dollar crashes, everything that we import (basically everything) will increase in price – perhaps tenfold or more – and overnight we are at a point of no return.

And you’re saying… what the hell does this have to do with blogging?

Well, I suppose if you do not agree with my stark assessment of the future, you think I’m being silly. That’s OK. In fact, I absolutely hope you are correct. But if I’m right, then it required me to really assess my situation and do everything I can to protect my family. All my free time has been in doing research and trying to figure out who to listen to and who not to, and to really have a plan of action for ourselves. At the same time, my goal is to do things that are prudent under any circumstance.

This post could go on forever with what this all entails, but I won’t bore you with all that. It’s just been very time-consuming, and I feel there is an urgency to this. I expect that, in the short-term, we have an opportunity to prepare for the long-term.

I had to assess many things, and one of those things is “what happens to my family if, worst case, I not only lose my job but can’t find another one?”

This spurred me on to many options. One option is somewhat out of the ordinary. It is the Forex (Foreign Exchange) market. I have spent countless hours researching this market, testing trading strategies, learning to program in the language of the trading platform, and so on. The volume of learning I have done, and have yet to do, is huge. And this, primarily, is where my blogging time went.

Now, it’s fair to ask how this all comes into play. Especially if you are aware – and many surely are – that depending on the estimate, 80% – 95% of all people trading in the market lose money. This isn’t exactly perceived as a low-risk venture to protect the family!

Well, there are different ways to view this. If you simply consider it investing, then a passive investor is nearly sure to lose money. A non-passive investor has about a dozen different pitfalls that will end up in money-loss. I have become convinced over the last three months from my own efforts that the reward here is directly proportional to knowledge, strategy, money management, and experience. We’ll see, though. Now, I’m not necessarily here to convince anyone of anything. But what I can offer is that I am not approaching this as an investment. I am approaching it as a business. The percentage of small businesses that fail are similar to the Forex numbers, and for many of the same reasons. I am willing to struggle through losses to learn, because I’d be investing in a business, anyway.

But this market makes sense to me in these times, because I can envision our traditional investments in stocks and real estate potentially becoming worthless. This is, for me, a diversification of funds, and an alternate method of wealth generation that – if it works out – is the first step towards not being dependent on my job in 3-5 years. Of course, it could fail miserably. And that’s OK. I’m only risking money I can afford to lose, and I won’t be any worse off a few years from now than if I didn’t try. Besides, even if ALL the other reasons for doing this end up not being a concern, the analysis using trends and different indicators is really a lot of fun for a guy like me. I am riveted by the constantly updating charts and data. I can really play the role of geek with that.

I really don’t know if anyone is interested on all this or not. I just felt I owed an explanation. Silly or not, it is what it is. And this will require continued effort on my part, which means I do not anticipate getting back into extensive blogging. Now, if I make millions and quit my job, then that’s another story! (So, if someone has millions to give, if they really, really like my blog, I’m all ears!)

OK, so having posted this, you’ll be happy to know that I have the charts saved and the numbers scribbled for UAH. A post is forthcoming on that update!

What’s Going on?

Yes, loyal climate change and temperature analysis addicts, I am still here.

Let me explain why there has been a lull. I am hoping (really!) to get to some things this week that will update a lot of the stuff I look at before the month ends. So don’t lose hope and keep checking.

Over the last couple weeks, I have been very busy with work, which unfortunately, pays infinitely more bills than this blog does. So, when work obligations increase, blogging must decrease for the sake of food, clothing, and shelter. In addition, it just so happened that there was a confluence of meetings and obligations among the few outside organizations/programs I am involved with, so even my personal time has been quite affected.

And, admittedly, I have filled the remaining time with another endeavor that has involved a huge learning curve, and has successfully driven my wife bonkers.

I am just like the rest of you – seeing my 401(k) drop to a 201(k). And while, under the theory that it will rebound by the time I need to retire in 20-25 years or so, I continue to faithfully contribute to what seems at the moment to be a losing cause, I have decided to not just sit around and do nothing with my money. I have really been taking my time to study some of the other markets, and have opened up a demo account on the foreign exchange markets. Yes, the risks are great. Depending on what you read, anywhere from 75% to 95% of all traders in the market end up losing money. Based on what I have read, the successful traders seem to have the ability to develop and stick with a system, accept bad trades, never get into a gambler’s mentality, and obviously just practice and learn the markets. So, my plan is long term and to use demo accounts to learn the actual trading. In the meantime, I have been learning the trading platform, trying to understand the lingo, getting a full understanding of what the optimal amount to risk at any one time is and just what to look for, etc. This has taken up all my time recently as I try to get a foothold in this market.

I only share this to let you all know (1) why I dropped the stock experiment. That money will go to this. And, quite honestly, right now as risky as the Forex market may be, I don’t really see it as any more risky than the stock market, and (2) just to let you know that, while I’m trying to juggle my priorities, I have not forgotten about you and will be working on some things very soon.

Thanks for continuing to check in.

Patience…

Things are kind of hawire at the moment with my schedule, both at work and away from work. New temperature charts will be forthcoming, and hopefully a couple other things. In the meantime, check out this excellent post by Jeff at “The Air Vent.” He referenced it in a comment, but it is worth another mention here.

In my trend analyses, I just use the data as it is provided. I realize, along with my readers, that there are limitations in the data. But it is what the world sees, so I choose to spend my time looking at the trends in the data set. Guys like Jeff and Steve McIntyre aren’t satisfied with that, and thankfully do us the service of looking into the credibility of the data itself in a multitude of ways. This latest post is another nice tool of putting the data sets into their proper context.

In the meantime, I’ll just point out that UAH data is out, and it dipped from previous month. GISS also is out and dipped below 50 again. Neither NCDC nor HadCrut are out yet (no surprise… they usually lag). Sea Ice is flirting with the second-highest level since 2002. The PDO index actually was warmer than -1.0 anomaly for the first time in seven months, though it’s still -0.87.

My to-do list keeps growing for the blog. Unfortunately, my to-do list is growing in all areas at the moment, so I will get the the analysis as soon as I can.

In the meantime, it’s -20 Fahrenheit tonight. Yay.

The mid-month lull…

For those of you who continue to check in to see if there are any additional updates on the data analysis front, I’m sorry to disappoint.

It would help if I didn’t have about a dozen completely unrelated interests and irons in the fire (seven kids is a big enough iron!) but please be patient.

My quick reports are as follows:
1) NCDC anomaly was recently released and it is very close to the projected anomaly from my model. I post on that and update the future predicted anomalies.
2) Unfortunatley, I still haven’t dug into the HadCrut projection model as I wanted to do, but hopefully I can get to that this week.
3) I still would like to get a projection analysis on RSS temps by region put together
4) I’ve decided to forego additional commentary on my GISS post. The charts are the main deal anyway.
5) A reader sent me a spreadsheet on more solar analysis that I would like to get to this week. Depending on what I see, I may suggest a collaborative post on the subject, but we’ll see.

Completely unrelated to global warming, I need to:
a) do the bills!
b) give my kids a piano lesson…
c) spend some time on my Fantasy Football teams, because I really am sucking this year and I’ve done nothing to upgrade my teams…
d) update my football scores projection model that predicts games against the spreads (purely for entertainment purposes, of course)
e) start working on my next CD…
f) be a Dad…
g) be a husband…
h) take advantage of stock opportunities in this volatile market…

Problem is, there isn’t enough time in a day to pursue all these things. So, occasionally, this global warming thing takes a short breather to allow me to get caught up in some other areas. That’s what is happening now.

There’s also this post I’ve been contemplating: a layperson’s guide to the current mortgage and financial crisis. There’s a lot of misconception out there, and a lot of oversimplification out there on what has happened. Both parties blame each other, then they blame Wall Street greed, then Congress deflects blame elsewhere, regulation (or lack of it) gets blamed, and anyone who suggests that consumers play a part in the whole deal are labeled racist by the very guy who took kickbacks from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The truth is, this is a perfect storm of a confluence of multiple factors, some of which were years in the making and some of which were not. These factors include everything from demographics to relaxing of regulations to Congressional direction to market forces to overindulgence and more. No single factor caused it, and yet every factor played a part. The speed in which everything unraveled was dramatic, but it was a long time coming.

I may or may not ever get to that, but I at least wanted to throw out the general thought. Our politicians have done us no favors whatever in actually giving us a full understanding of this whole mess. They pick their pet issue, such as a relaxation of regulation, and use it to make a case for more regulation, while ignoring the multitude of other factors involved.

Anyway, just wanted to give a little shout out. I’ll see you soon.

Delay in Analysis…

For those of you wondering where the HadCrut analysis is, thank you for your patience. I wanted to put a quick note out here explaining the delay.

First and foremost, the hours I would normally set aside for this work has been gobbled up by my day job. As many of you know, I am an actuary. What you may not know is that I work for an AIG subsidiary. You may have heard a little about AIG on the news lately… um, yeah…

Let me be clear about one thing… I had NOTHING to do with any of this! OK, seriously, though. Due to issues of compliance and regulations and politics and everything else, I really can’t provide intricate details of what’s going on. Nor can I represent the company publicly in matters of financial stability. I do, however, feel pretty safe in saying that the insurance operations for which I work are on solid footing, and really are separate and distinct from the area of the company that has created the current firestorm. That may be difficult for the average person who has no reason to know how or why this is true, but it is nonetheless very true.

However, perception becomes reality. Thusly, AIG gets hammered in the news, and most people don’t think to dig into all the numbers and figure out whether or not there are differences between insurance and investments and financial services and so on. And who can blame them? But it creates issues and frustration for those of us who are trying to steady the ship. At the moment, I am involved in a lot of analysis trying to determine exactly what the financial impacts to all of this may be to my division. That’s about all I can say about that. But wish me luck.

Secondly, I did manage to spend some spare time updating the HadCrut models and cranking away on the updated numbers, only to find out after it was all done that I had wasted those hours on a faulty assumption that I had built into the estimation process. I have since had to re-tool the whole thing to ensure it is working properly, and I just completed that portion of things tonight (while I was canning tomatoes and paying bills – yes, I was doing all three things at once. This has been my life lately. And have I mentioned that I have seven kids? Sheesh.)

Anyway, I hope to have the HadCrut analysis up this weekend. I apologize for the delay.

July 2008 Update on Global Temperature – HadCrut

In the strange world of temperature anomalies, we have the HadCrut data, that can be found here. Column 2 (right next to the date) is the global temperature anomaly. The most recent anomaly is 0.314 (or 31.4 in GISS-equivalent-speak). I still have not yet put a spreadsheet together to fully track this, but it is in progress and I should have it completed for next month. I may even get some predicted anomalies out before then.

Since it’s difficult to compare this directly to other measures due to differences in baseline averages that define the anomalies, it is best to take a look at the data (at this point anyway) against itself.

The June measure of 31.4 is the coolest June since 2000. Similar to GISS, though, it is still warm on an overall historical basis, yielding the 10th highest June anomaly in the data set (159 points). On an overall anomaly basis, it is in the top 7% of all anomalies over the course of the measured period, 1850-current. The 12-month average of 29.7 is the lowest since the period ending April 2001.

One of the interesting things about the HadCrut data is that, unlike GISS and NCDC, the methodology is not publicly available. We get a number, and we’re expected to believe it. I have no particular reason to suggest they are doing one thing or another with their numbers, but this lack of transparency doesn’t lend itself to a high level of trust.

The overall average anomaly over the time period is -17.4. I only mention that to show that the anomaly we see is not representative of the level above or below average, but simply relates to a baseline.

One of the interesting things to me is that the RSS, UAH, and HadCrut anomalies all went up from the previous month. The outlier is once again GISS, except that in this instance, the GISS went down from the previous month. NCDC has yet to be released.

HadCrut is also more consistent with the satellite measures in how long the cooling trend extends back. The furthest back we can fit a negative trend line is the May 1997 – over 11 years.

June 2008 Update on Global Temperature – NCDC Predicted Anomalies

I’ve fallen a tad behind on things lately, but I wanted to provide the updated projected anomalies for hte NCDC anomalies for the record. Depending on the method, the low estimate is 42.0 (utilizing the changing 240-month trends) and a high estimate of 53.6 (using 300-month trends). The averages indicate a point estimate of about 48.

Here is the entire grid, including future month estimates:

60-month

120-month

180-month

240-month

300-month

June	46.1	47.7	48.5	42.0	53.6
July	50.5	42.1	54.1	45.0	49.9
August	46.8	38.5	62.7	44.2	47.7
September	44.4	46.0	72.4	44.0	50.9
October	34.0	45.8	59.0	51.3	52.2
November	51.9	59.9	79.6	70.0	40.7
December	37.2	53.1	67.7	46.0	60.9
January	60.0	58.57	77.6	81.5	69.8
February	54.2	51.77	83.2	61.0	76.0
March	33.2	65.70	57.6	56.2	59.3
April	39.9	55.60	58.6	63.3	71.6
May	46.0	62.60	53.9	61.4	59.0
June	41.2	50.90	52.7	67.0	70.3
July	40.4	45.50	50.5	59.2	68.8
August	38.0	41.75	44.5	55.7	61.0

 

360-month

Average

Avg Excl Hi/Lo

Median

June	49.0	47.8	47.8	48.1
July	48.5	48.3	48.5	49.2
August	50.5	48.4	47.3	47.3
September	45.0	50.4	46.6	45.5
October	42.3	47.4	47.9	48.6
November	43.0	57.5	56.2	55.9
December	39.3	50.7	49.8	49.5
January	61.0	68.1	67.1	65.4
February	55.3	63.6	61.6	58.2
March	42.5	52.4	53.9	56.9
April	49.8	56.5	56.8	57.1
May	49.0	55.3	55.8	56.5
June	42.0	54.0	53.2	51.8
July	41.0	50.9	49.1	48.0
August	30.5	45.2	45.0	43.1

June Update on Global Temperatures – UAH Data

Unlike my spreadsheets with the GISS and NCDC temperatures, I don’t have a model and fancy stuff put together for the UAH, RSS, or HadCrut data yet. I’ll get there…

Still, I do a quick scan of the updated temperature anomalies, and here’s what has transpired in May:

The UAH (University of Alabama – Huntsville) Satellite temperature anomaly is -0.180 (degrees Celsius) globally. All three measures (Northern Hempisphere/Southern Hemisphere/Tropics) were negative for the first time since July 2004. The tropics anomaly has been trending down significantly lately. The May anomaly was -0.579, and this is on the heels of -0.532 in April and -0.489 in March. These are the coldest tropical temps since 1989.

Other interesting data facts on the global temp:
-This was the coldest May since 1992 (-.187)
-This was the coldest single anomaly since January 2000 (-.184)
-With this addditional data point, the current flat/cooling period now extends back to September 1997 – nearly 11 years.
- It is the fourth coldest May in the record (the satellite temps only go back to December of 1978, so there are 30 data points)
- This is the ninth consecutive “year-over-year” anomaly decline (assuming seasonality comes into play at all) at an average decline in those nine months of 0.272 degrees Celsius
- The sun still has no sunspots (OK, not from the UAH data, just an aside)

Check out the chart at Watts Up With That? You tell me if you see a catastrophic warming trend evident over the last 30 years…

Still waiting for the other temperature measures. As always, I’ll be doing significant analysis on GISS and NCDC, and hope to add HadCrut to the list this month so I can compare and contrast all the surface measures. I will then move on to the satellite data.

Predicted Anomalies: Results and Updates

Here were the predicted anomalies from last month, as found in this post.




MONTH    60-Month  120-Mo.    180-Mo.    240-Mo.    300-Mo.    360-Mo.    AVG   AVGX   MED

April 08      38.90      41.34        51.10       45.30       43.70        46.50      44.5    44.2   44.5

 
As I previously wrote, the actual anomaly was 41 for the month of April. I’ve only just started this method, so I can’t make any bold claims about success quite yet, but it’s a nice start.

So, moving on with the same method (I’ve added a couple additional weighting points, which I hope to continue to do moving forward) I have updated my predictions for the next 12 months. Here they are, shown by each individual trending method (n-number of months in the trend) and an average, average excluding high and low, and the median values.

Month	60-month	120-month	180-month	240-month	300-month
May	50.4	43.0	32.3	46.3	35.3
June	65.3	30.8	52.7	34.7	54.5
July	48.7	33.0	45.0	43.5	53.0
August	36.5	46.7	55.2	50.2	53.7
September	31.6	66.9	72.1	43.2	34.5
October	24.0	57.9	45.5	48.2	58.5
November	47.9	58.0	56.2	84.2	46.0
December	29.7	52.4	51.1	62.5	74.1
January	61.6	82.45	51.0	101.5	61.9
February	39.3	36.25	61.8	71.0	68.2
March	41.6	79.05	37.1	50.3	26.3
April	49.1	80.60	28.3	74.6	66.2

 

Month	360-month	Average	Avg Excl Hi/Lo	Median
May	34.0	40.2	39.6	39.1
June	56.5	49.1	49.6	53.6
July	39.6	43.8	44.2	44.3
August	73.8	52.7	51.5	52.0
September	53.1	50.2	49.4	48.2
October	53.2	47.9	51.2	50.7
November	42.0	55.7	52.0	52.0
December	58.1	54.6	56.0	55.2
January	72.9	71.9	69.7	67.4
February	80.4	59.5	60.1	65.0
March	46.2	46.8	43.8	43.9
April	47.0	57.6	59.2	57.6