Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Projected Anomalies for the next 12 months

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on April 28, 2008

As previously discussed, I have developed a new model to project upcoming temperature anomalies. It continues to be a work in progress, but version 1.0 is here.

Now that I have explained the mechanics of the predictive model, let’s take a look at the results.   What I am projecting here are the anticipated temperature anomalies over the next 12-month period.   Theoretically, I could take this out even further, but I’d prefer to see how this performs in the short-term before considering the long term.

 

 

60 month trend line basis:

Using the 60-month trend line model, the projected second differences fall within the reasonable range.   I am projecting a continuing string of positive second differences through August 2008, and then some back-and-forth values after that.   The second-difference values do not approach the max or min, so both tests pass.

 

The resulting predicted anomalies are:

April 2008          38.90
May 2008            46.09
June 2008           60.47
July 2008           46.76
August 2008         32.91
September 2008      27.43
October 2008        16.77
November 2008       40.62
December 2008       27.49
January 2009        62.27
February 2009       39.34
March 2009          37.24

Should these projections come to fruition, it implies a continually steeper cooling trend in the 60-month trend line.  The maximum negative slope value is -0.246 in December 2008.

 

120 month trend line basis:

Both reasonableness tests pass.

 

April 2008          41.34
May 2008            37.50
June 2008           21.15
July 2008           27.35
August 2008         45.85
September 2008      63.20
October 2008        49.55
November 2008       51.10
December 2008       53.05
January 2009        84.65
February 2009       34.10
March 2009          69.70

 

In this scenario, the 120-month trend line will decline for a few months to a minimum value of 0.133, but will then move back up a bit by March 2009 to a value of 0.149.

 

 

 

180 month trend line basis:

Both reasonableness tests pass. 

April 2008          51.10
May 2008            31.30
June 2008           49.80
July 2008           39.80
August 2008         54.00
September 2008      66.90
October 2008        38.70
November 2008       47.30
December 2008       43.60
January 2009        49.50
February 2009       58.40
March 2009          26.70
 

In this scenario, the 180-month trend line will continue to decline throughout the entire period to a minimum value of 0.131 after March 2009.  The current 180-month trend line is 0.203.

 

 

240 month trend line basis:

Both reasonableness tests pass.

 

April 2008          45.30
May 2008            47.00
June 2008           39.00
July 2008           47.00
August 2008         56.00
September 2008      45.70
October 2008        47.00
November 2008       86.00
December 2008       63.00
January 2009       108.00
February 2009       75.30
March 2009          51.00

 

In this scenario, the 240-month trend line stay at about the same slope until December 2008, and it would thin increase over the next few months.   Current slope is 0.162.  Projected slope a year from now is 0.168.

 

 

300 month trend line basis:

Both reasonableness tests pass.

 

April 2008          43.70
May 2008            28.00
June 2008           47.00
July 2008           46.30
August 2008         50.30
September 2008      31.30
October 2008        53.50
November 2008       43.00
December 2008       71.50
January 2009        61.80
February 2009       64.70
March 2009          18.30

 

In this scenario, the 300-month trend line will stay at about the same level through February 2009, but the low March anomaly drops the trend line to 0.156 (current is 0.158).

 

 

360 month trend line basis:

Both reasonableness tests pass.

 

April 2008          46.50
May 2008            35.50
June 2008           58.50
July 2008           42.50
August 2008         77.00
September 2008      54.00
October 2008        53.00
November 2008       43.00
December 2008       62.50
January 2009        79.00
February 2009       87.00
March 2009          50.50

 

In this scenario, the 360-month trend line will decline throughout the period, albeit slowly.  The current slope is 0.142.  The projected slope after March 2009 would be 0.138.

 

 

PREDICTIVE VALUES

 

In addition to each individual trend line being analyzed for its predictive value, other metrics can be evaluated for their predictive value, as well.   Here are the average values (avg), the average excluding high/low (avgx), and the median values (med).

 

MONTH           AVG     AVGX      MED
April 2008      44.5    44.2      44.5
May 2008        37.6    37.6      36.5
June 2008       46.0    48.6      48.4
July 2008       41.6    43.8      44.4
August 2008     52.7    51.5      52.2
September 2008  48.1    48.6      49.9
October 2008    43.1    47.1      48.3
November 2008   51.8    46.1      45.2
December 2008   53.5    55.5      57.8
January 2009    74.2    71.9      70.6
February 2009   59.8    59.4      61.6
March 2009      42.2    41.4      43.9

 

 

Using the average values, the 12-month average anomaly would decline to 42.3 after October 2008, which would be lowest 12-month average since the year ending October 2001.   However, the average would start to increase in the subsequent months.   Should those values occur, the cooling/flat trend would then extend back to January 2001 through March 2009.

 

Using the average excluding high and low produces similar results, with the minimum 12-month average anomaly being 42.7 in November.  The trend would extend back the same as the average.

 

The Median also produces the 12-year average anomaly reaching minimum in November, but the cooling/flat trend line only extends back to February 2001.

 

In all three cases, the projection is for the current extended trend lines to continue to show a shallower slope over the next year.

 

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2 Responses to “Projected Anomalies for the next 12 months”

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