Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Predicted Anomalies: Results and Updates

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 17, 2008

Here were the predicted anomalies from last month, as found in this post.


MONTH    60-Month  120-Mo.    180-Mo.    240-Mo.    300-Mo.    360-Mo.    AVG   AVGX   MED

April 08      38.90      41.34        51.10       45.30       43.70        46.50      44.5    44.2   44.5

 
As I previously wrote, the actual anomaly was 41 for the month of April. I’ve only just started this method, so I can’t make any bold claims about success quite yet, but it’s a nice start.

So, moving on with the same method (I’ve added a couple additional weighting points, which I hope to continue to do moving forward) I have updated my predictions for the next 12 months. Here they are, shown by each individual trending method (n-number of months in the trend) and an average, average excluding high and low, and the median values.

Month 60-month 120-month 180-month 240-month 300-month
May 50.4 43.0 32.3 46.3 35.3
June 65.3 30.8 52.7 34.7 54.5
July 48.7 33.0 45.0 43.5 53.0
August 36.5 46.7 55.2 50.2 53.7
September 31.6 66.9 72.1 43.2 34.5
October 24.0 57.9 45.5 48.2 58.5
November 47.9 58.0 56.2 84.2 46.0
December 29.7 52.4 51.1 62.5 74.1
January 61.6 82.45 51.0 101.5 61.9
February 39.3 36.25 61.8 71.0 68.2
March 41.6 79.05 37.1 50.3 26.3
April 49.1 80.60 28.3 74.6 66.2

 

Month 360-month Average Avg Excl Hi/Lo Median
May 34.0 40.2 39.6 39.1
June 56.5 49.1 49.6 53.6
July 39.6 43.8 44.2 44.3
August 73.8 52.7 51.5 52.0
September 53.1 50.2 49.4 48.2
October 53.2 47.9 51.2 50.7
November 42.0 55.7 52.0 52.0
December 58.1 54.6 56.0 55.2
January 72.9 71.9 69.7 67.4
February 80.4 59.5 60.1 65.0
March 46.2 46.8 43.8 43.9
April 47.0 57.6 59.2 57.6

 

It’s a fair question to ask how the May prediction compares to the two-month forward prediction for May shown last month.   Generally, the current prediction is higher, which may seem a little odd since the actual anomaly came in slightly below last month’s average prediction.   The reasons for this, admittedly, are because the model isn’t stable at this point.  I continue to “improve” it by adding additional weighting months that are then used in the calculation of the minimum least squares.   Adding these values not only adds weight to a value previously not there, but also impacts optimal weighting values for other months in the least squares calculation.   As far as I’m concerned, this is an ongoing improvement, and I’m OK with it.

Last month comparative values, respectively for May, were:  46.09; 37.50; 31.30; 47.00; 28.00; 35.50; 37.6; 37.6; 36.5.  Only the 240 and 360 month models had a lower predicted anomaly this time around, and only slightly so.

The long and short of it is, it looks like we can once again anticipate a global temperature anomaly of around 40 if the model holds.  We’ll see what happens.  It’s kind of interesting that, at the moment, the model just anticipates moderate anomalies pretty consistently going forward, but a warm January 2009.  July 2008 looks to be a little cooler than the surrounding months, but not quite as cool as May is expected to be.

 UPDATE 5-28-2008:Thanks to the wonders of modern technology, (and finally getting the “Solver” program added in to Excel) I was now able to extend my weighting factors back to utilize the information from the last 11 years. I picked this period because it corresponds to the average solar cycle. Clearly, not all cycles will be reflected in this period, and not all cycles last an exact period of time. But if I go too far back then it will deplete the credibility of the sample size.

However, since I made this adjustment, the predicted anomalies have changed. I have included them here:

Month 60-month 120-month 180-month 240-month 300-month
May 41.3 46.1 46.7 50.5 45.3
June 53.5 51.3 46.0 39.5 65.0
July 43.8 38.9 48.5 45.7 67.1
August 42.6 46.9 55.7 47.8 55.0
September 44.2 62.2 77.7 44.2 45.1
October 38.3 56.5 60.9 46.0 62.4
November 52.7 47.4 75.0 87.9 58.3
December 45.0 53.4 69.3 52.5 78.3
January 60.8 53.8 62.0 83.5 69.6
February 63.6 56.7 78.6 59.5 92.1
March 50.1 75.2 71.1 54.1 63.5
April 45.2 60.9 57.5 70.3 90.4

 

Month 360-month Average Avg Excl Hi/Lo Median
May 36.5 44.4 44.9 45.7
June 54.5 51.6 51.3 52.4
July 34.5 46.4 44.2 44.7
August 74.2 53.7 51.4 51.4
September 48.0 53.6 49.9 46.6
October 52.5 52.8 54.0 54.5
November 42.9 60.7 58.3 55.5
December 46.0 57.4 55.3 52.9
January 66.5 66.0 64.7 64.3
February 85.0 72.6 71.7 71.1
March 50.0 60.7 59.7 58.8
April 38.5 60.4 58.4 59.2
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One Response to “Predicted Anomalies: Results and Updates”

  1. […] Predicted Anomalies: Results and Updates […]

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