Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

May 2008 Update on Global Temperature, Part 4 – NCDC Predicted Anomalies

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 29, 2008

So, I ran my little predictive algorithm against the NCDC data, and I thought I’d throw these out so that I can either be publicly humiliated or take credit where due.

The following table predicts future temperature anomalies based on the analysis of how X-month trend line slopes change using the NCDC data.   It uses weighting factors going back 11 years.   Here are the results:

  60-month 120-month 180-month 240-month 300-month
May 41.5 44.8 47.3 52.3 56.0
June 44.5 48.1 50.2 46.0 59.9
July 49.1 42.3 55.4 48.7 56.0
August 45.4 38.8 63.8 47.6 53.0
September 43.0 46.1 73.5 47.2 56.0
October 32.6 46.0 60.1 54.3 57.0
November 50.4 60.1 80.8 72.9 45.5
December 35.6 53.3 68.9 49.0 66.0
January 58.4 58.90 78.9 84.5 75.0
February 52.6 51.95 84.3 64.0 81.5
March 31.1 65.90 58.9 59.6 64.8
April 38.2 55.90 60.0 67.0 77.5

 

  360-month Average Avg Excl Hi/Lo Median
May 50.0 48.6 48.6 48.7
June 52.0 50.1 49.1 49.1
July 50.5 50.3 50.9 49.8
August 52.5 50.2 49.6 50.0
September 47.5 52.2 49.2 47.4
October 44.5 49.1 50.4 50.1
November 46.0 59.3 57.4 55.3
December 41.0 52.3 52.3 51.1
January 63.0 69.8 68.9 69.0
February 57.0 65.2 63.8 60.5
March 44.0 54.0 56.8 59.2
April 52.0 58.4 58.7 58.0

 

So there you go.  I’ll continue to track the results going forward to see how I do, and how far out this model seems to have predictive capability – if any.

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