Landscheidt, Part 3
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 3, 2008
It’s been a while since my last excursion into the Lanscheidt paper, :Seinging Sun, 79-Year Cycle, and Climate Change.” You can see the previous entry, Landscheidt, Part 2 here. Better yet, click here, or the link on the left under “Landscheidt” to get to the archive where you can just get all the entries.
I’m going to skip the summary of where I’m at here and just move on. Please refer to the previous entries to get up to speed, if interested.
Phases of zero degrees or 90 degrees indicate a potential for peaks and phases of 180 degrees or 270 degrees can lead to troughs.
The phases here are the segments of the 79 year cycle that are made up of 19.86 years, on average. In the current cycle, the 90-degree phase occurred in 1951. Each point 0, 90, 180, and 270 are represented by the point of minumum distance (referred to in the paper as DM) between the Center of the Sun (CS) and the Center of Mass of the Solar System (CMSS). It is at these points where there is the potential for an increase in sunspot activity (peaks) or troughs in sunspot activity (troughs). Certain criterial need to be met to release these potentials, and that criteria is…
Such potentials are actually released if A L transgresses a definite threshold value.
What exactly is that threshold value? Ha! It’s a surprise! That, and it would take a while to explain it here and it will be better served to wait for the nitty gritty details. But the general idea here is that A L (the time integral of torque discusses previously) has a maximum value at DM. That value provides insight into actualized potentials and corresponding solar activity.
The ensuing interval variations in the secular cycle are verified by records of sunspots and aurorae dating back to the 4th century AD.
Yes, it’s true. Apparently back in the olden days people would look straight at the sun and notice sunspots. And then they would go blind, and send the next person to look at the sun. They got their counts, but it cost them a lot of eyeballs.
OK, that’s not true. But I’d like to know how – before telescopes that filtered these images and stuff – someone actually paid close enough attention to the sun to notice a sunspot. But be that as it may, we have records of activity. Clearly, the instruments we use today are much more capable of picking up small sunspots, so it is widely believed that “tiny tims” often went unnoticed. But I’m digressing for no good reason. Suffice it to say that Landscheidt presents charts and graphs and the like to demonstrate the visual correlation between the different phases in conjunction with qualifying A L measures and overall sunspot activity.
Rare activity-deficient periods like the Maunder Minimum, which according to Eddy et al. are related to changes in the Earth’s climate, solely occur when AL reaches exceptional values meeting a special criterion.
This is the crux of the paper, from a conclusionary aspect. First of all, the Maunder Minimum for those not in the know is the period of time from 1645 to 1715, also known as the Little Ice Age. For a very extended period of time, there was virtually no sunspot activity recorded. Many stories have been passed down through the generations regarding rivers that froze over that have never frozen over since, or the devastation to crops grown in northern latitudes due to constant frosts and shortened growing seasons. In his papers, “The Maunder Minimum” and “The Case of the Missing Sunspots,” Eddy addresses the climate change ramifications of such an extended minimum. I admit to not having read these papers, but I hope to get to those at some point. But Landscheidt’s important point is that the onset of such periods (to lesser or greater extents) have solely occurred when the time integral of torque, AL, reaches certain calculated values along with other criterion. Landsheidt will demonstrate when that criterion has been met in the past and what ensued…
This is confirmed by radiocarbon data going back to the 6th millennium BC.
And he will make a statement about when the next minimum is expected to occur… oh… lookee here!
The next minimum in the 79-year cycle will occur in 1990.
Well, OK. Hopefully this minimum won’t have one of those AL measures meeting one of those exceptional criterions… Oh… waitaminnit…
It will be more pronounced than the minimum in 1811.
The minimum here is referred to elsewhere as the “Dalton Minimum.” It was another period of very cold weather, though not as prolonged or deep as the Maunder Minimum. But make no mistake, there was a high price in lives, crops, and overall livelihood during this time. According to Landscheidt, the measure of AL will be such and the other criterion satisfied so that the period following 1990 will have effects more pronounced than the Dalton Minimum. He does not say anything about the Maunder Minimum, as he does not do calculations that far back.
You may be thinking that we’re out of the woods because it is now 18 years since 1990 and we’re not freezing. That’s an interesting point. There are follow-up Landscheidt papers that I believe address this, but not necessarily this one.
Woo hoo! We’re through the abstract!