Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

June 2008 Update on Global Temperature – Predicting Future GISS Anomalies

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 10, 2008

Me divining anomalies after a bad case of insomnia

Last month’s GISS anomaly came in at 36.  Based on my predictive model, this was a lower value than expected.  The only model to get it right was the 360-month trend-line model, which had pegged it at 36.5.   This, however, was the lowest predicted anomaly for May.   All the other trend-line models predicted a value anywhere from 41.3 to 50.5, which the average measures in the mid-40s.   Interestingly, the predicted anomalies for May based on the model after March month-end was much more in line.  The average predicted anomalies for May at that point were from 37 to 39.   The reason this is interesting is because that model used fewer weighting points.   Nonetheless, it is one data point, and I am confident that the current version over time is better.

Looking back at the June predictions: as of the end of March, they came in between 47.3 and 50.5.   As of the end of April, they increased a bit with the new model to a range of 51.3 to 52.4.   The new number-crunching using the updated data as of May month-end produces results between 47.4 and 48.5 for the average measures, and a range of 40.2 to 60.5 depending on the methodology used.   Overall, then, the lowest predicted anomaly for June looks to be higher than the May actual anomaly.  We’ll see what happens.

The full details as to the approach can be found in past posts.  If you find it difficult to track down, I’d be happy to post the link.    The full grid of predictions by method and for the next twelve months follows.  Keep in mind, this is the GISS anomaly being projected:

 

 

 

  60-month 120-month 180-month 240-month 300-month
June 50.6 46.4 40.2 32.5 60.5
July 41.1 34.7 43.4 39.8 63.2
August 39.9 44.1 50.9 43.0 51.6
September 41.6 58.9 73.2 40.0 42.3
October 35.5 53.1 56.1 41.5 58.7
November 50.4 44.4 71.3 83.5 54.8
December 42.3 49.6 64.3 49.0 75.2
January 57.4 50.1 56.9 79.3 66.1
February 60.4 52.8 73.0 55.7 88.9
March 46.9 71.2 66.0 50.1 60.7
April 41.3 57.4 52.1 65.9 87.4
May 48.7 53.6 56.3 71.2 70.0

 

  360-month Average Avg Excl Hi/Lo Median
June 54.1 47.4 47.8 48.5  
July 34.1 42.7 39.7 40.4  
August 74.2 50.6 47.4 47.5  
September 47.6 50.6 47.6 45.0  
October 51.7 49.4 50.6 52.4  
November 42.1 57.7 55.2 52.6  
December 45.2 54.3 52.0 49.3  
January 65.6 62.6 61.5 61.5  
February 85.0 69.3 68.5 66.7  
March 50.4 57.6 56.8 55.6  
April 38.1 57.0 54.2 54.8  
May 68.3 61.3 62.1 62.3  

 

 I put it all out there for public consumption so we can laugh and cry together over my successes and failures.   Actually, I wouldn’t consider a 36 value against the predictions all that terrible, but I’d like to see a little better.

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