July 2008 Update on Global Temps – RSS
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on July 3, 2008
Even though I don’t have a predictive spreadsheet put together yet for the RSS anomalies, I still like to take a quick look at it and put the latest readings in context from a pure data perspective.
The latest RSS anomaly is 0.035. Historically, this is a fairly middle-of-the-road reading. It is the 13th coolest June of the 30 Junes on record. In more recent context, it is another cooler reading compared to the last few years. It is the coolest June since 1999 (-0.091). It now extends to 10 months the year-over-year anomalies that are lower than the previous year’s. The last such consecutive stretch dates back to the period beginning May 1999 and ending February 2000.
Looking at either the last 6, 7, or 8 month average anomalies (the point at which the recent spate of anomalies showed a drop to where they have since remained) provides the same answer as to the last time we have seen a stretch as cool as the current level: the period ending June 1997.
The cooling trend now extends back to May 1997.
It is also interesting to look at some of the regional measures. The tropics are showing their eighth consecutive negative anomaly. The last such stretch was the period beginning December 1999.
The Northern Hemisphere above the tropics still shows a positive anomaly of +0.316. So, from an overall historical perspective, it’s still on the warm side, but from a recent perspective it is cooler. It is the 5th coolest overall such anomaly since January 2005, and it is the second coolest June since 1997.
The southern hemisphere below the tropics shows its fifth consecutive negative anomaly, the first such stretch since the period beginning July 1997. It is the coldest SH June since 1998 and the eight coolest of the 30 satellite readings.
The North Pole has a +0.384 reading, which is nearly a degree lower from the previous June, but keep in mind that May was over a degree higher than the previous May. The anomalies at the north pole have been consistently positive over the last few years, with only one negative anomaly since January 2005 and two negative anomalies since May 2002. The current anomaly is the 7th coolest since March of 2007 (16 data points) but, interestingly enough, there were only 8 anomalies lower than the current level in the period from May 2002 to March 2007. So there seems to be a larger incidence of lower (but positive) anomalies in the last 16 months than in the 5 years prior. Whether this portends a trend towards future negative anomalies remains to be seen.
The South pole had a largely negative anomaly of -1.488, which is the coldest individual month anomaly since January 1999, nearly 2 degrees colder than June 2007, the coldest June since 1984, and the third coldest June of the 30 Junes on record.