Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

July 2008 Update on Global Temperature – HadCrut

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on July 14, 2008

In the strange world of temperature anomalies, we have the HadCrut data, that can be found here. Column 2 (right next to the date) is the global temperature anomaly. The most recent anomaly is 0.314 (or 31.4 in GISS-equivalent-speak). I still have not yet put a spreadsheet together to fully track this, but it is in progress and I should have it completed for next month. I may even get some predicted anomalies out before then.

Since it’s difficult to compare this directly to other measures due to differences in baseline averages that define the anomalies, it is best to take a look at the data (at this point anyway) against itself.

The June measure of 31.4 is the coolest June since 2000. Similar to GISS, though, it is still warm on an overall historical basis, yielding the 10th highest June anomaly in the data set (159 points). On an overall anomaly basis, it is in the top 7% of all anomalies over the course of the measured period, 1850-current. The 12-month average of 29.7 is the lowest since the period ending April 2001.

One of the interesting things about the HadCrut data is that, unlike GISS and NCDC, the methodology is not publicly available. We get a number, and we’re expected to believe it. I have no particular reason to suggest they are doing one thing or another with their numbers, but this lack of transparency doesn’t lend itself to a high level of trust.

The overall average anomaly over the time period is -17.4. I only mention that to show that the anomaly we see is not representative of the level above or below average, but simply relates to a baseline.

One of the interesting things to me is that the RSS, UAH, and HadCrut anomalies all went up from the previous month. The outlier is once again GISS, except that in this instance, the GISS went down from the previous month. NCDC has yet to be released.

HadCrut is also more consistent with the satellite measures in how long the cooling trend extends back. The furthest back we can fit a negative trend line is the May 1997 – over 11 years.

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5 Responses to “July 2008 Update on Global Temperature – HadCrut”

  1. Garrett said

    I smell a global warmer…

  2. Diatribical Idiot said

    Huh?

  3. R James said

    So what happened to the July figure – they’re a bit late getting it out. There’s no doubt that global warming has taken a break. If this year continues as it is, we’ll have a significant turn downwards on the 11 year trend graphs. It’s then just a waiting game to see which way the trend wants to go. It seems to me that if people are so concerned about what a bit of CO2 might be doing, they should be in a panic over the lack of sunspot activity. The more I evaluate the science, the more I see problems from a likely cooling period.

  4. Diatribical Idiot said

    Actually, the July figure is out, and I have the analysis completed on it, but I left it on my laptop while I engaged in selfish R&R up north!

    I plan on posting regarding that on Monday. It’s pretty much similar to GISS – an uptick from June 2008, and just a hair’s width lower than July 2007. It pretty much left the trends unaffected.

    The sunspot activity is not necessarily unusual in historical context, though it is much lower than recent history. However, the longer the current minimum drags on, and the longer the entire cycle takes to finish, the more concerned one needs to be about the correlations between temperature and activity, and well as the inverse correlation between length of previous cycle and temperature. Both point to a decrease in global temperatures, and will be evident in another year or two, as the influence usually presents itself on a two year lag or so.

  5. R James said

    I just saw the Hadcrut data – must have just come out. I agree with your comments about sunspot activity. I can see historical evidence that indicates a correlation of temperature with a long period of low sunspot activity (eg Maunder period). It seems to me that the evidence and science behind this is infinitely stronger that the CO2/temperature hypotheses. Looking at how the media has reacted to CO2, they should be sitting on the toilet over sunspots.

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