Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

September 2008 Update on Global Temperature – UAH

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on September 11, 2008

A few days ago, UAH released their August anomaly.

DATA
The information is found here.

The August anomaly is -0.10 (in terms of a degree Celsius).

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF THE SINGLE DATA POINT
*It is 0.0547 degrees colder than July 2008
*It is 0.296 degrees colder than August 2007
*It is the coldest August anomaly since 2000
*Warmer anomalies can be found as far back as September 1979 (0.27). The data starts December 1978.

RANK
*19th warmest (12 coldest) August anomaly out of 30 data points since 1979
*223rd warmest (135th coldest) anomaly out of the total 357 monthly observations

SLOPES AND CHANGES IN SLOPE
*Current running negative slope extends back to May 1997 (graph below)

*Overall slope since inception (December 1978) is 0.1072, equivalent to 1.29 degrees per Century. Graph below:

*Current 60-month slope = -0.3560, or a rate of 4.27 degrees cooling per Century. Chart below:

*This is the lowest 60-month slope since the period ending November 1994.
*The peak positive 60-month slope occurred in the period ending March 2004, and has declined since. The peak chart is below:

And the rate of decline since the peak is presented below:

The cyclical variations in 60-month slopes is shown below:

*120-month slope is 0.0816, which has actually increased and is at its highest level since April 2007. This is due to a dramatic fall in front-end period anomalies (as anomalies came down from the El Nino peak in 1997-98).
*180-month slope, at 0.1239 is the lowest since the period ending May 2002, but still positive
*240-month slope, at 0.1483 is the lowest since the period ending January 2007
*300-month slope, at 0.1482 is the lowest since the period ending August 2006

STREAK
*It is the 12th consecutive monthly anomaly that is colder than the previous year’s reading.
*The last 12-month run is the period ending February 2000, which ended a 16 month run.
*Other runs of at least 12 months of cooling: 19 months, ending April 1993; 13 months ending October 1989; 13 months ending December 1984; 12 months ending December 1982.

AVERAGES
*4-month average of -6.50 and the 5-month average of -4.90 are the coldest respective stretches since the period ending June 1997, and is colder than periods as far back as October 1979
*The 12-month anomaly of .0478 is the coldest annual stretch since the period ending December 2000, and is actually colder than the period ending June 1980 (.0499)
*The 60-month average of .2354 is the coldest since the period ending June 2005. There is no earlier period in the data set with a warmer average 5-year period.
*The 120-month average of .2033 is the coolest average since the period ending January 2006. There are no previous 10-year periods with higher averages.

GISS has released their data, and it reflects a similar drop in magnitude. The August anomaly of 39 (in terms of 0.01 degrees Celsius) compares to an anomaly of 56 for August 2007 and an anomaly of 50 for July 2008. I won’t get to that complete analysis today, but for the curious observer, that data is found here.

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2 Responses to “September 2008 Update on Global Temperature – UAH”

  1. John A. Jauregui said

    I just returned from visiting Yellowstone and was struck by the devastation of the 1988 fires, which were preceeded by acute drought and record setting dry lightening. I began to wonder what solar activity occured leading up the 1988 fire storms. Solar cycle 22 started just a couple of years before that summer of drought and dry lightening. Check this out. Relative to other cycles, that solar cycle had 1) a very fast rise time – 2.8 years, 2) a very short cycle length – 9.7 years, 3) a high minimum sun spot number – 12.3, and 4) a high maximum sun spot number – 158.5

    more:

    “Cycle 22 certainly provided us with many highlights. Early in the cycle the smoothed sunspot number (determined by the number of sunspots visible on the sun and used as the traditional measure of the cycle) climbed rapidly; in fact more rapidly than for any previously recorded cycle. This caused many to predict that it would eclipse Cycle 19 (peak sunspot number of 201) as the highest cycle on record. This was not to be as the sunspot number ceased climbing in early 1989 and reached a maximum in July of that year. Whilst not of record amplitude, Cycle 22 still rated as 4th of the recorded cycles and continued the run of recent large solar cycles (Cycles 18, 19 and 21 were all exceptional!). A very notable feature of Cycle 22 was that it had the shortest rise from minimum to maximum of any recorded cycle.”
    Material Prepared by Richard Thompson. © Copyright IPS – Radio and Space Services.

  2. […] September 2008 Update on Global Temperature – UAH […]

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