Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

September 2008 Update on Global Temperature – GISS

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on September 13, 2008

And the beat goes on… GISS released the August anomaly a few days ago, and it came in at a value of 39.  The predicted anomaly was between 48 and 52 as a best estimate, so the actual anomaly came in lower than expected.  Two of the models did produce an estimate that was pretty close:  the 60-month trend model projected an anomaly of 41, and the 300-month trend model projected an anomaly of 40.   Other models drove the overall average estimate upward. 

DATA
The information is found here.

The August anomaly is 39 (in terms of 0.01 degree Celsius).

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF THE SINGLE DATA POINT
*It is 0.11 degrees colder than July 2008
*It is 0.17 degrees colder than August 2007
*It is the coldest August anomaly since 2000
*The furthest back we can go to find an anomaly at least as large is January 1981. There are no anomalies previous to that where the value is at least 39.

RANK
*10th warmest (120th coldest) August anomaly out of 129 data points since 1880
*128th warmest (1,417th coldest) anomaly out of the total 1,544 monthly observations
*More recently, it is the 4th coldest of the last 38 anomalies. The three coldest are all in 2008.

AVERAGES
*The latest 12-month average is now 40.8, wich is the coldest 12-month stretch since the period ending September 2001.

STREAK
*This is the 5th consecutive month with a year-over-year anomaly decline
*12 of the last 13 months show a year-over-year anomaly decline

SLOPES AND CHANGES IN SLOPE
*Overall trend line since inception is presented below. This represents warming of 0.56 degrees per Century
Overall trend of GISS data since inception - 0.56 degrees warming per Century

*Current running negative slope extends back to December 2000, or 93 months (graph below)
*The current cooling trend line added one data point with the new month, and added one data point at the front end versus the July month-end data
Current cooling trend dating back to December 2000

*Current 60-month slope is -0.1842, continuing the increasingly negative 60-month slope measure
*Current slope is the lowest slope since the period ending March 1995
Current 60-month slope based on raw data
The most recent highest slope in the 60-month raw data
Chart showing how the slope has declined over the last few years
Chart showing the varying levels of 60-month slopes over time

*Current running 120-month slope is 0.1443
*This slope value has increased over the last few months after a previous decline. This is due to some higher front-end anomalies dropping off, lowering the front part of the line.
*This increase should continue next month, and then level off for a few months, before starting to decline again.
*The current value is the highest value since the period ending July 2007.
120-month trend level
Graph of recent changing trendlines.  A little blip up recently, but still an overall decline.

*180-month slope is 0.1683, continuing to decrease as time goes on.
*Lowest value since the period ending March 2003
Current 180-month trend
Recent changing slopes of the 180-month trend
Chart of changing 180-month slopes over time.

*240-month slope is currently at 0.15877
*This is the 5th consecutive decrease, but is still in the range of where the value has been since January 2007.
*Looking forward, the slope is anticipated to remain around this level for a few more months
Current 240-month trend on raw anomalies
Changing 240-month trend line over recent history
Chart of changing 240-month trends over time.

*300-month trend is at 0.1556, continuing a decline in slope values recently after a period of increase
*Current slope is the lowest value since the period ending June 2006
Current 300-month trend on raw anomalies
Changing 300-month trend line over recent history
Chart of changing 300-month trends over time.

*Current 360-month trend is 0.1352, which continues a decline which has been occurring for a few years
*The current 30-year slope value is the lowest since the period ending September 2002
Current 360-month trend on raw anomalies
Changing 360-month trend line over recent history
Chart of changing 360-month trends over time.

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