Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

October 2008 Update On Global Temperature – UAH

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on October 6, 2008

UAH has released the September anomaly!   Woo hoo!   Let the fun begin…

DATA
The information is found here.

The September anomaly is 16.1 (in terms of 0.01 degree Celsius – the data in the link is in terms of degrees Celsius.).

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF THE SINGLE DATA POINT
*It is 0.04 degrees cooler than September 2007
*It is 0.168 degrees warmer than August 2008

RANK
*It is the 10th warmest September anomaly (21st coolest) of all Septembers in the data set
*It is the 108th warmest (251st coolest) anomaly in the total of 358 observations
*It is the highest anomaly since November 2007

AVERAGES
*The latest 12-month average is now 4.5, which continues a decline in this measure.
*Due to the high value compared to recent readings, all short-term averages rank as warm compared to the previous year or so.
*10, 11, and 12-month averages are low compared to very recent years. The last time a 12-month average reached current levels was the period ending December 2000.

STREAK
*This is the 13th consecutive year over year decrease in the anomaly reading
*The last such consecutive cooling streak was the period ending February 2000 (which ended a 16-month cooling stretch).
*Other streaks of 13 or more months in the data include: October 1991 – April 1993 (19 consecutive months); October 1988 – October 1989 (13 consecutive months); December 1983 – December 1984 (13 consecutive months). If the next anomaly is lower than previous year, this will be the third longest stretch in this data’s history (which starts December 1978).

SLOPES AND CHANGES IN SLOPE
*Overall trend line since inception is presented below. This represents warming of 1.28 degrees per Century. Of course, the history of this data only goes back to December 1978, which is a steeper warming trend than the longer-term surface data presents.

*Current running negative slope extends back to May 1997, or 136 months (graph below)
*The current cooling trend line added one data point with the new month, but did not extend the initial starting point back any further
*Note on cherry-picking: the entire point of this chart is to see the furthest point backward to find a trend line that has a negative slope. It is well understood that 1998-99 had an El Nino spike, and that we have just recently come of out a La Nina period. The chart itself makes no suggestions about anything other than the fact that there has been no warming for the last 136 months. Please note that I willfully supply numerous charts with other periods that demonstrate a warming trend when a linear trend line is applied. (As an aside, however, I lived through the era where warming was extrapolated back in 1999-2000, which included the El Nino. For some reason, that was fair game. That’s more a point of contention towards the treatment a decade ago than the legitimacy of the caveats of today. We should, in fact, point these things out. Likewise, we should perhaps consider how similar situations were presented in the past, and how they helped shape public opinion and supposed consensus on the issue. OK, I’ll stop now and get back to the data.)

*Current 60-month slope is -0.3683, continuing the decline of 60-month slopes (which, by the way, is past the 1998 El Nino period. Of course, it’s also a much shorter period.)
*The current slope is the lowest since the period ending November 1994.

The most recent peak value:

The trend of slopes:

And the cycle of 60-month trend values:

*Current running 120-month slope is 0.0896
*This slope value has increased for 10 consecutive months. While there is a longer-term decline since March 2002, this is the chart where the 1998 El Nino shows its major impact. The spike in anomalies has been dropping off the front end, which lowers the point of origin of the line, increasing overall slope. We can expect to see this continue for a few more months (check out the chart to get the visual).
*The slope value is the highest since April 2007



*180-month slope is 0.1152, continuing to decrease as time goes on.
*Lowest value since the period ending March 2002

*240-month slope is currently at 0.1505
*This has bounced around in a generally flat pattern for a few months

*300-month trend is at 0.1488
*The same observed pattern in the last few anomalies is seen here as in the 240-month slopes

I’d add some witty repertoire, but you’ll have to excuse the funk I’m in. Starting on Saturday evening, the following travesties all occurred with a span of less than 24 hours: (1) The Wisconsin Badgers snatched defeat out of the hands of victory, after it appeared that they were about to defeat the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall; (2) The Milwaukee Brewers lost on Sunday at Miller Park, ending their season, and (3) The Green Bay Packers lost at Lambeau Field against a team they should have defeated, slipping out of the division lead.

And on top of that, it’s been dark, cold, rainy, and miserable since that all started.

Sad times…

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5 Responses to “October 2008 Update On Global Temperature – UAH”

  1. jmrSudbury said

    The slight rise in the Sept anomoly may be due to us coming out of the La Nina.

    And, if you are interested, RSS just updated their site for Sept: 0.211
    ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_1.txt
    John M Reynolds

  2. Diatribical Idiot said

    Agreed that there could be a La Nina effect showing up here. Thanks for the heads up on the RSS release. Just when I thought my work was done for the day…

  3. Fred said

    Instead of doing linear trends, is there something a little more telling that can be used? A linear trend is clearly not applicable when looking at some of the charts, such as “Latest 120 Month Trend Line Based on Raw Anomaly UAH Data.” That chart begs for something other than linear to understand the trend.

  4. Diatribical Idiot said

    Fred, that is why I present the secnd graph. That graph shows how the 12-month trend changes over time.

    The challenge is that there are so many individual factors that go into temperature, and these things are either random in nature or cyclical in nature (either regular or irregular – even the solar cycle is not constant) that I don’t know that there is an argument to be made for any particular trend curve as being applicable.

    So, given that, I have chosen to present linear trends as something that is generally understood, and then track how those trends change over time. This graph lends itself much more to a linear trend line (though even that will have reversals, so you can only look at segments of the overall chart, which I have also shown above to get a grasp of the overall cycical nature of the trend values).

    I’m not saying there isn’t a better way, but I have yet to figure out what that way is.

  5. […] October 2008 Update On Global Temperature – UAH […]

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