Initial Note on GISS Anomaly
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on October 8, 2008
I just noticed the September Anomaly has been released by GISS. The value is 49, which is almost equivalent to both the August 2008 anomaly and the September 2007 anomaly, but at 50.
Updated: I erroneously provided the projection from July month-end, not August month-end. I have corrected that, and have also provided the projections for September that had been put forward since I had a working model, which is March 2008.
It will take me a bit to get my updated charts and analysis up, so I just wanted to throw out the results against the predictive model. The model showed a best estimate range, as projected last month, between 41 and 46. So the current anomaly is .03 degrees Celsius higher than the upper-end of my best estimate. Interestingly, the projection for the September 2008 anomaly based on my model fared better in the previous months, as follows:
March month-end projection: 49 – 51
April month-end projection: 47 – 54
May month-end projection: 45 – 51
June month-end projection: 39 – 44
July month-end projection: 47 – 52
August month-end projection: 41 – 46
I will be trying to incorporate the same adjustments to the GISS model that I made to the NCDC model.
For those playing at home, the projected best estimate anomaly for September for NCDC was 0.4657. Stay tuned.