Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

October 2008 Update on Global Temperature – NCDC

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on October 21, 2008

NCDC released the September anomaly, and it came in at a value of 0.4429. The predicted anomaly was 0.4657.

DATA
The information is found here..

The September anomaly is 0.4429 (in terms of 1 degree Celsius).

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF THE SINGLE DATA POINT
*It is 0.0116 degrees warmer than August 2008
*It is 0.0821 degrees cooler than September 2007
*It is the coolest September anomaly since 2000
*The furthest back we can go to find an anomaly at least as large is December 1987. There are no anomalies previous to that where the value is at least 0.4429.

RANK
*10th warmest (120th coldest) September anomaly out of 129 data points since 1880
*107th warmest (1,439th coldest) anomaly out of the total 1,545 monthly observations
*More recently, it is the 5th coldest of the last 32 anomalies. The four colder anomalies are all since December 2007.

AVERAGES
*The latest 12-month average is now 0.4495, which is the coldest 12-month stretch since the period ending October 2001.

STREAK
*This month was cooler than previous year, after an increase last month (August was lower than previous year as of August month end, but it was adjusted this month and now shows a value above last year)

I will simply present a couple of the updated NCDC charts, and then show the updated projected anomalies from my composite model. I will list the actual projected anomalies through 2009 below that chart.

Overall Trend
Overall Trend

The current period for which we show no warming can be taken back to January 2001

Overall Trend

The 60-month slope values continue a downward trend that has lasted almost 5 years

Overall Trend

The 60-month slopes vary in a cyclical pattern over time, with current values dropping below recent "resistance" lower bound trend lines

Overall Trend

If the model is accurate, we should see negative anomalies in 8 years

 

 

Projections:

October 45.59
November 54.87
December 42.01
January 51.44
February 49.74
March 50.73
April 45.98
May 49.66
June 46.77
July 43.81
August 41.01
September 42.66
October 40.20
November 33.91
December 37.49
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