Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

November 2008 Update on Global Temperature – UAH

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on November 13, 2008

UAH has released the October anomaly, which I have finally gotten around to taking a look at.

DATA
The information is found here.

The September anomaly is 16.7 (in terms of 0.01 degree Celsius – the data in the link is in terms of degrees Celsius.).

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF THE SINGLE DATA POINT
*It is 0.064 degrees cooler than October 2007
*It is 0.006 degrees warmer than September 2008

RANK
*It is the 10th warmest October anomaly (21st coolest) of all Septembers in the data set
*It is the 106th warmest (254th coolest) anomaly in the total of 359 observations
*It is the highest anomaly since November 2007

AVERAGES
*The latest 12-month average is now 3.9, which continues this measure’s continued decline.
*The last time a 12-month average reached current levels was the period ending December 2000.

STREAK
*This is the 14th consecutive year over year decrease in the anomaly reading
*The last such consecutive cooling streak was the period ending February 2000 (which ended a 16-month cooling stretch).
*There is only one other streak of 14 or more months in the data aside from the current streak and the streak ending February 2000: October 1991 – April 1993 (19 consecutive months).

SLOPES AND CHANGES IN SLOPE
*Overall trend line since inception is presented below. This represents warming of 1.28 degrees per Century. Of course, the history of this data only goes back to December 1978, which is a steeper warming trend than the longer-term surface data presents.

*Current running negative slope extends back to May 1997, or 137 months (graph below)
*The current cooling trend line added one data point with the new month, but did not extend the initial starting point back any further

*Current 60-month slope is -0.3604, about the same as a month ago.

The trend of slopes:

*Current running 120-month slope is 0.0963
*This slope value has increased for 11 consecutive months. While there is a longer-term decline since March 2002, this is the chart where the 1998 El Nino shows its major impact. The spike in anomalies has been dropping off the front end, which lowers the point of origin of the line, increasing overall slope. We can expect to see this continue for a few more months (check out the chart to get the visual).
*The slope value is the highest since March 2007

*180-month slope is 0.1107, continuing to decrease as time goes on.
*Lowest value since the period ending January 2002

*240-month slope is currently at 0.1511
*This has bounced around in a generally flat pattern for a few months

*300-month trend is at 0.1483
*The same observed pattern in the last few anomalies is seen here as in the 240-month slopes

There certainly does seem to be somewhat of an upward tick from earlier in the year, but current temperatures are still tracking below year-ago levels. The current upward trend probably is related to a neutral ENSO value. Unless an El Nino is on the way, or there is more unwinding in average temperature affects from the diminishing La Nina, it appears that this is probably about the level we’re settling into, absent other effects. It will be interesting to see what future months hold if the ENSO effects stay neutral.

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