November 2008 Update on Arctic Temperature – RSS
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 1, 2008
- Anomaly value = 0.452, in degrees Celsius
- Of 358 total anomalies in the data, it ranks 120th
- Of 30 October anomalies, it ranks 10th.
- October’s anomaly is 0.45 degrees cooler than October 2007 and 0.155 degrees cooler than September 2008
Averages and trends
- 12-month average anomaly is 0.514, which – other than the 51.3 average at the end of August 2008 – is the lowest average since the period ending January 2005.
- The slope since inception (January 1979) is 0.27989 degrees Celsius per month, which corresponds to a warming rate per Century of 3.36 degrees. The most horrific global warming figures are extrapolated from the observed warming in the Arctic over the last few decades. And it surely has warmed fairly significantly. However, this is a regional phenomenon. The Antarctic has actually cooled slightly in the last 30 years and nobody seems to really care all that much about that. It is very obvious from the RSS data differentiation by latitude that global temperature changes are a little more complicated than the simplistic “global” notion we so often hear about.
- We can fit a negative trend line going as far back as March 2002. So, while the anomalies are still warm, they have stopped increasing in the last 6 and a half years.
- There is no significant recent streaks of consecutive cooling or warming stretches over previous year.
- Last 60-month slope = -0.0053. While negative, and while recent anomalies haven’t been real high, the trend line has increased because there is a dropping off of some very high anomalies on the front end of the trend line. Given the short line and the widely fluctuating anomalies in this region, the 60-month trend whips around quite a bit. In two months, I expect it to actually swing positive, but then it should flip back to a negative trend line.
- Last 120-month slope = 0.4589. This is a significant 10-year trend line. Since the last 5-years show a negative trend line, this still provides insight into the fact that the recent anomalies have still hovered higher than they were a decade ago. This helps explain the continued decline of ice mass through summer of 2007. Even though the Arctic was starting to cool down from its peak, it was still warm enough to continue increasing the melt. But we can now see, based on the 12-month average being the lowest in a while, that the overall anomalies have come down over the last 3 years, and we saw a higher ice mass at minimim in 2008 than 2007, and we saw a more rapid recovery into the winter. I have included a snapshot of the ice extent as of the end of November, from the IJIS site, below. You may view a current snapshot by clicking the IJIS link under “Resources” on the right of this page.
- Last 180-month slope = 0.4222, the lowest such slope since the period ending February 2003.
- Last 240-month slope = 0.4725, – the value of this trend line has been relatively stable since December 2005.
- Last 300-month slope = 0.3895, – the value of this trend line has been relatively stable since December 2006.