Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Winter Weather in a Warming Climate

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 20, 2008

Despite warming temps, snow decided to make an unwelcome appearance in Spokane.  The snow has been reprimanded for adding to confusion about the climate.

Despite warming temps, snow decided to make an unwelcome appearance in Spokane. The snow has been reprimanded for adding to confusion about the climate.

I just came in from using the roof rake to clear snow off the roof of my house. It’s the second time this year already I’ve needed to do that. I just checked the weather, and we are expecting between 5 and 7 inches of snow over the next day and a half. This will be followed by extreme cold with dangerous wind-chills.

This is an anecdote. So is the weather in Las Vegas, New Orleans, Houston, and Malibu – all of which have received snow this winter. So is the foot of snow and the ice storms that took out power in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. So is the cold weather and snow expected in New York.

The entire freakin’ country is an anecdote this winter.

It’s an anecdote because, of course, when there is evidence to support that the last 11 years and 8 months of no warming is something that is manifesting itself in certain areas of the globe in wintry weather or cooler summers, it is an anecdote. But when there is a wildfire in California or a week-long heat wave in France or a period of warm temperatures in Russia (we’ll consider Siberia this week an anecdote), it is evidence of global warming.

This is a truth we must all accept.

So, please remember that all the following stories picked from today’s news is anecdotal, and that we really are warming. Really… just accept it.

Winter storm causing havoc.

A winter storm packing snow, freezing rain and biting wind cut power to tens of thousands of customers Friday, disrupted travel and gave schoolchildren from Iowa to New England an early start on their holiday break. “One thing about it, you’re going to have a white Christmas this year,” said Lee Longdyke, as he shoveled a sidewalk in Pontiac, Mich., for the third time Friday morning.

More than 300 flights were canceled at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, and more than 650 at three New York City-area airports. Many remaining flights had hourslong delays.

Runways at Milwaukee’s airport were closed for much of the morning because snowplows could not keep up with “whiteout conditions,” airport spokeswoman Pat Rowe said.

Snowfall affected a large region, but the worst of the ice storm – and resulting power outages – was in a band across northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Power companies reported 60,000 customers in Illinois without service Friday, more than 35,000 in Ohio, and a whopping 180,000 in Indiana, where the area around Fort Wayne was particularly hard-hit.

Northeast also getting hit.

A major winter storm that has created chaos from the Midwest to the Northeast will slam Boston and southern New England with heavy snow tonight. A second storm will follow close behind this weekend, while a blast of arctic air and a third storm will cross the country in the days leading up to Christmas.

Too cold to ski in Aspen.

ASPEN — The snow in Aspen just keeps on coming, but it may be too cold to enjoy it by Saturday.

A winter storm that dumped up to a foot of snow on local ski slopes over the past two days has moved out, but another system is headed for Aspen Friday night. So are plummeting temperatures and a brutal wind chill.

On the heels of the winter storm warning that expired Friday morning, the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for the northwest mountains of Colorado, including Aspen and Snowmass, starting Friday evening. It extends until Saturday evening.

The weather service is predicting 3 to 5 inches of new snow in Aspen on Friday night, with lows of 5 below to 5 above and wind-chill readings of 8 to 18 below.

This nutjob deniermeteorologist isn’t applying rational thought to the global warming crisis. He should have his certifications stripped.

CNN Meteorologist Chad Myers had never bought into the notion that man can alter the climate and the Vegas snowstorm didn’t impact his opinion. Myers, an American Meteorological Society certified meteorologist, explained on CNN’s Dec. 18 “Lou Dobbs Tonight” that the whole idea is arrogant and mankind was in danger of dying from other natural events more so than global warming.

“You know, to think that we could affect weather all that much is pretty arrogant,” Myers said. “Mother Nature is so big, the world is so big, the oceans are so big – I think we’re going to die from a lack of fresh water or we’re going to die from ocean acidification before we die from global warming, for sure.”

Farming diverts ice age. Ice goes on strike and demands reparations.

The common wisdom is that the invention of the steam engine and the advent of the coal-fueled industrial age marked the beginning of human influence on global climate.

But gathering physical evidence, backed by powerful simulations on the world’s most advanced computer climate models, is reshaping that view and lending strong support to the radical idea that human-induced climate change began not 200 years ago, but thousands of years ago with the onset of large-scale agriculture in Asia and extensive deforestation in Europe.

What’s more, according to the same computer simulations, the cumulative effect of thousands of years of human influence on climate is preventing the world from entering a new glacial age, altering a clockwork rhythm of periodic cooling of the planet that extends back more than a million years.

“This challenges the paradigm that things began changing with the Industrial Revolution,” says Stephen Vavrus, a climatologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Center for Climatic Research and the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. “If you think about even a small rate of increase over a long period of time, it becomes important.”

Thank goodness for a voice of reason. Please give a warm welcome to Obama’s new science advisor, a man who speaks the truth, John Holden.

Spokane, your record snowfall is an aberration.

SPOKANE — The winter storm that has paralyzed Spokane set a record for the amount of snow dumped in a 24- hour period, the National Weather Service said Thursday.

The weather service recorded 17 inches of snow at Spokane International Airport in the 24 hours that ended at 4 a.m., 4 inches more than the record of 13 inches set in 1984. Records have been kept since 1881.

More than 3 inches of additional snow had fallen on the city since 4 a.m., the weather service said, driving the total to more than 20 inches.

Phew. I wonder what will all happen tomorrow.

Advertisements

7 Responses to “Winter Weather in a Warming Climate”

  1. Jeff Id said

    Joe,

    Do you know the history of the data from your PDO analysis. Anthony Watts did his post on it which showed the pattern but I had a commenter who stated the longer term history was based on models.

    It’s interesting because I looked at the history of the GISS stations on CA and found that there were very few stations outside the US in the early 1900’s. Global temps couldn’t possibly be accurate back then. PDO is probably a pretty strong effect on GISS and I’m interested in the quality of the historic data.

  2. Jeff Id said

    BTW I should mention, I think it clearly relates to this post.

  3. The Diatribe Guy said

    Jeff, from the data set (linked to on the right) is the source of data from 1900-1981:

    “Data sources for this index are:
    UKMO Historical SST data set for 1900-81”

    UKMO = United Kingdom Meteorological Office. Seas Surface Temps (SST) are done in 5 x 5 degree grids, according to the reading I’ve done on it (which isn’t all that much).

    I know that there are some questions about Ocean readings by British vessels during WWII, where the bucket temps may not have been accurate, but I’m not aware of other issues.

    However, one thing about the UK measurements is that they are somewhat an enigma. While GISS adjustments are questionable, they are publicly available enough so that people like Steve McIntyre, who wishes to spend the necessary time figuring out how it all works, can do it. Not so with the UK measures. So, how accurate the PDO measures are, I don’t know.

    Basically, all the data from these sources, in my opinion, have to be taken with a grain of “Here’s what the data says. What we don’t know is how accurate the data is.”

  4. The Diatribe Guy said

    Oh, and I have recently accumulated all the oceanic index data together. On my to-do list is to chart out all of them, just to see what is going on. Step two is to test correlations on both global temps and regional temps nearest those oceanic areas. Step three is to take these correlations and through the use of different weighting factors, see what the contributions to each index is to temperature.

    Of course, I have a lot of ideas that I’d like to get to. Seven kids, a wife, a stupid dog, and this pesky thing called a job often prevent me from getting to everything I’d like to get to.

  5. Jeff Id said

    That sounds very interesting, correlation to near ocean regional temps. I trust the buckets more than GISS, I have read about this collection method before. There is a measure of engine inlet data from quite a while ago as well, if the buckets are incorporated in PDO I bet the engine inlets are there as well.

    BTW:I found your plots of PDO more interesting than the Watts Up post a while ago. If it doesn’t turn around, I bet we are going to get pretty darn cold. Cold sun, cold water, cold weather.

    Would you mind if I made a post about your PDO trend also? I want to put the graphs up (with links) as well as the Watts post just so people pay a bit more attention to the trend.

  6. The Diatribe Guy said

    You run a great site and do great work. Any time you think a post of mine is helpful to you, you can use the information as you see fit. No need to even ask for permission. Now, if you make millions some day as you become the anti-Gore, just remember some of us little people…

  7. Jeff Id said

    Free carbon credits for Diatribe Guy!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: