Here’s Where I’ve Been…
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on April 15, 2009
It has been a while. I thank you for your patience. Any of you who grew accustomed to coming here for my updated numbers deserve my sincerest apologies for dropping out of sight. Going forward, please continue to check in occasionally. Perhaps on a bi-weekly or monthly basis. I will not be posting as frequently as in the past for the foreseeable future, but do plan on posting more than I have in the past month or two (which is basically nothing).
I believe I owe it to you to explain why this sudden switch in my habits occurred. I do so knowing in advance that many will see my time spent foolishly. I’m fine with that.
This really started last September. I have posted in the past that I am employed by a particular company that has basically taken about as large as a beating from the press and politicians as imaginable. Much if this well deserved, and much of it not. I am not here to denigrate my employer nor am I here to defend it in all aspects. And, fortunately, I am somewhat insulated by all the goings-on because of the particular entity I work for.
However, while not a lot has personally changed for me on the exterior, a lot has changed in how I see my place in the world. My company is a very solid operation, but nonetheless has its own vulnerabilities, particularly if there is an extended economic downturn. And, personally, I believe that, in the next 5-10 years, the current issues we are experiencing will be child’s play. I am not here to ask anyone to agree with me or subscribe to my political philosophy. But I must share my viewpoint here to better outline why I’ve been up to what I’ve been up to.
With the bailouts in September and October, our system changed. This was not a good thing, in my view. Then, after the abominable (in my view) stimulus package, we threw ourselves over the cliff. I firmly believe that we will see a short-term (1-3 year) bump from this, and then the day will come where China and other stakeholders stop supplying loans to us, and worse yet – calls their existing loans back – and we will be absolutely devastated. We will have two options: default, or print trillions of dollars on top of what we are already printing. In a very short time, the dollar crashes, everything that we import (basically everything) will increase in price – perhaps tenfold or more – and overnight we are at a point of no return.
And you’re saying… what the hell does this have to do with blogging?
Well, I suppose if you do not agree with my stark assessment of the future, you think I’m being silly. That’s OK. In fact, I absolutely hope you are correct. But if I’m right, then it required me to really assess my situation and do everything I can to protect my family. All my free time has been in doing research and trying to figure out who to listen to and who not to, and to really have a plan of action for ourselves. At the same time, my goal is to do things that are prudent under any circumstance.
This post could go on forever with what this all entails, but I won’t bore you with all that. It’s just been very time-consuming, and I feel there is an urgency to this. I expect that, in the short-term, we have an opportunity to prepare for the long-term.
I had to assess many things, and one of those things is “what happens to my family if, worst case, I not only lose my job but can’t find another one?”
This spurred me on to many options. One option is somewhat out of the ordinary. It is the Forex (Foreign Exchange) market. I have spent countless hours researching this market, testing trading strategies, learning to program in the language of the trading platform, and so on. The volume of learning I have done, and have yet to do, is huge. And this, primarily, is where my blogging time went.
Now, it’s fair to ask how this all comes into play. Especially if you are aware – and many surely are – that depending on the estimate, 80% – 95% of all people trading in the market lose money. This isn’t exactly perceived as a low-risk venture to protect the family!
Well, there are different ways to view this. If you simply consider it investing, then a passive investor is nearly sure to lose money. A non-passive investor has about a dozen different pitfalls that will end up in money-loss. I have become convinced over the last three months from my own efforts that the reward here is directly proportional to knowledge, strategy, money management, and experience. We’ll see, though. Now, I’m not necessarily here to convince anyone of anything. But what I can offer is that I am not approaching this as an investment. I am approaching it as a business. The percentage of small businesses that fail are similar to the Forex numbers, and for many of the same reasons. I am willing to struggle through losses to learn, because I’d be investing in a business, anyway.
But this market makes sense to me in these times, because I can envision our traditional investments in stocks and real estate potentially becoming worthless. This is, for me, a diversification of funds, and an alternate method of wealth generation that – if it works out – is the first step towards not being dependent on my job in 3-5 years. Of course, it could fail miserably. And that’s OK. I’m only risking money I can afford to lose, and I won’t be any worse off a few years from now than if I didn’t try. Besides, even if ALL the other reasons for doing this end up not being a concern, the analysis using trends and different indicators is really a lot of fun for a guy like me. I am riveted by the constantly updating charts and data. I can really play the role of geek with that.
I really don’t know if anyone is interested on all this or not. I just felt I owed an explanation. Silly or not, it is what it is. And this will require continued effort on my part, which means I do not anticipate getting back into extensive blogging. Now, if I make millions and quit my job, then that’s another story! (So, if someone has millions to give, if they really, really like my blog, I’m all ears!)
OK, so having posted this, you’ll be happy to know that I have the charts saved and the numbers scribbled for UAH. A post is forthcoming on that update!