The NOAA Game – Guess the Anomaly
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 2, 2009
I always like taking a quick look at some visuals, and one site I check in with is the NOAA regional climate maps site. The link to that can be found to the right under “Resources – Climate Maps.”
You have to jump around quite a bit to view all the different maps, so I decided to show them here. All visuals in this post are credited to the NOAA website to which I just referred. The other reason I posted them here is because those visuals update each week under the same link. The historical maps aren’t kept (at least not publicly that I’ve found).
Anyway, also under “Resources – NOAA Data” you will find their temperature anomalies. May hasn’t yet been released. This isn’t considered one of the major temperature measures, but it is nonetheless important, because it is the data that is used in the GISS temperature anomaly release. Hansen and company take the information and adjust it according to their algorithms, which is why GISS differs in the end from NOAA.
As a point of reference, the last four anomalies in the NOAA data are:
I thought it would be a neat little exercise to look at all the maps, and guess the anomaly for May. Let’s see what we’ve got (note that NOAA bolds and underlines the preliminary nature of these maps (probably so that some fool on the internet doesn’t try to use them to figure out actual temperature anomalies). Oh, and I just scrunched all the maps to the same size, so some look a little funny. Just click on them for a better view.:
NOAA doesn’t have the May departure from average for the United States yet. That usually takes a few days. The best I can do is show the April monthly departure, and the last week of May.
Edited: Originally I wrote, “I’m submitting my post here without coming up with a prediction. I’ll look at it closer today and submit my guess for the NOAA May anomaly.” Here is my prediction: 0.3133. We just don’t have any hot spots this month that should drive a high anomaly. We have some warm spots, but also some cool ones. Looking at the charts, I came up with a land anomaly of 0.3010. Of course, not all land regions are covered by these maps, so who knows what’s in-between?) I looked at the ENSO, PDO, and AMO index and came up with a Northern Hemisphere Ocean anomaly of -0.284 and looked at the Southern Oscillation Index (Antarctic wasn’t updated past 2007) and settled on a projected Anomaly of 1.15 in the Southern hemisphere. (I am assuming 6-9 month lags in temps). All that gave me my remarkable answer, which I am sure will be completely wrong.
This blog doesn’t get a ton of discussion. I know some people read it. The stats tell me so. That either means my posts are so brilliant that no further discussion is necessary, or it means that you’re all boring. (There are other alternatives that will be ignored, since it requires some otherwise negative explanation regarding me or the blog.) In any case, feel free to submit your own prediction. A free “atta boy” gets tossed out to the winner.