Announcing the Winner of the “Guess the NOAA Anomaly” Contest
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 15, 2009
The anomaly has been released for May. The answer is: 0.5225.
Drum roll, please…
Congratulations to Bob Montle, who said:
My guess is +0.53
Not from the actual graphs but because the number seems to come out .5x(something) regardless of what common sense and intuition suggested before the actual posting.
For his efforts, he receives an “atta boy!” Great credit goes out to him for eschewing the urge to review maps and ocean data, like yours truly, and trying to make sense out of the temperature deviations on the maps and the anomalies released from satellites in order to hone in on the much-anticipated NOAA anomaly.
Clearly, he understands this process much better than the average layman, who might think that such indicators might make a difference.
Despite the fact that I was remarkably low in my guess, I will note that I followed up with the following in the comments:
My prediction is based on the observable maps and recent stats. If someone were holding a gun to my head and my life depended on it, I’d actually predict around 0.5, based on (1) the last few months of anomalies, (2) the fact that NOAA always seems high (I’m sure this is pure coincidence), and (3) the land masses missing will probably be assumed to have about a 5 degree Celsius anomaly.
But it really wouldn’t be all that imaginative to just pick an anomaly in line with the last 4 months. This way, if I’m right I look like a genius. If I’m wrong, I can chalk it up to conspiracy theory or something.
Oh, and the GISS anomaly was 55. It makes me laugh.
HadCrut has yet to be released.