Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Announcing the Winner of the “Guess the NOAA Anomaly” Contest

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 15, 2009

The anomaly has been released for May. The answer is: 0.5225.

Drum roll, please…

Congratulations to Bob Montle, who said:

My guess is +0.53

Not from the actual graphs but because the number seems to come out .5x(something) regardless of what common sense and intuition suggested before the actual posting.

For his efforts, he receives an “atta boy!” Great credit goes out to him for eschewing the urge to review maps and ocean data, like yours truly, and trying to make sense out of the temperature deviations on the maps and the anomalies released from satellites in order to hone in on the much-anticipated NOAA anomaly.

Clearly, he understands this process much better than the average layman, who might think that such indicators might make a difference.

Despite the fact that I was remarkably low in my guess, I will note that I followed up with the following in the comments:

My prediction is based on the observable maps and recent stats. If someone were holding a gun to my head and my life depended on it, I’d actually predict around 0.5, based on (1) the last few months of anomalies, (2) the fact that NOAA always seems high (I’m sure this is pure coincidence), and (3) the land masses missing will probably be assumed to have about a 5 degree Celsius anomaly.

But it really wouldn’t be all that imaginative to just pick an anomaly in line with the last 4 months. This way, if I’m right I look like a genius. If I’m wrong, I can chalk it up to conspiracy theory or something.

Oh, and the GISS anomaly was 55. It makes me laugh.

HadCrut has yet to be released.

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3 Responses to “Announcing the Winner of the “Guess the NOAA Anomaly” Contest”

  1. Mike said

    The global temperature statistics really do have the feal of an old road on the top of a cliff being steadily eroded by the sea. We all know that only time, bodged “repairs” and wishful thinking is stopping the road collapsing into the sea, yet some continue to maintain the pretence that the road isn’t eventually heading downward and keep up the charade of proping up the road with ever more elaborate and contorted supports as the ground falls away.

    The cracks are showing, the sea is getting rougher and there’s an expectant group of onlookers watching ….

  2. Bob montle said

    Ahh – no applause, please – just throw money!

    I’m willing to reveal my secret: I tried to guess how NOAA would come up with their anomaly and did the same. Actual numbers would indicate about .053, but that would be unacceptable. So they look at the past few months and pick a number which shows a s l i g h t cooling, but is still one of the hottest Mays of their records. Voila!

  3. The Diatribe Guy said

    #1 – I love your analogies. Keep them coming. First the Tide-watching AGWers, now a road on a cliff. Good stuff.

    #2 – Well done.

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