Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

I suppose I should post something…

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on July 7, 2009

So much to do, so little time.  I seem to have somehow misplaced my HadCrut notes in the midst of my life.

 

For giggles, here’s a little “Life Update” that has absolutely nothing to do with climate, although I may add that it’s been very nice here lately, with perfectly warm temperatures that makes one yearn for more.

So, let’s see… 

1) I’ve managed to let my analysis here slide while I continue to forge ahead with my FOREX experimentation.  This is taking anywhere from an hour to 2 hours a day, but lately is looking as if it may bear fruit.  Only time will tell, as the market can turn on you in a hurry.   I’ll update you occasionally.  I’m an honest guy, so I’ll tell you right now that I am down in my account, but not as much as I was 2 weeks ago.  You really shouldn’t trade real money before you know what you’re doing, but it’s tough for me to really take it seriously otherwise.  But I don’t recommend it unless you just truly have some disposable income that you can afford to lose.   I’m still breathing!   I have started  a trading journal online that I’ll point you to some day if my current strategy continues in success.  (Big IF at this point, but we’ll see.)

2) Had to take some family time around the 4th of July.  Hope all had a happy Independence Day.

3) We are re-modeling our home.   Each step, unfortunately, requires multiple steps.  We replaced the counters and sink in the kitchen.  So everything got cleared out of the cupboards.   Unfortunately, the sink didn’t fit back in right and there are other problems, which will now cost me about an extra $400 in plumbing.   Ugh.    We put new carpet in three bedrooms so far, and tore wallpaper down and painted and all that stuff.  Plus, everything needs to be removed from the room (dismantled in many cases) and relocated, only to put it all back in.   Now, we’re in the process of removing wallpaper and painting in the main living area, which is just peachy.   I’m trying to make arrangements for new A/V equipment, as well.  All this really sucks, if I’m being honest.  I hate this kind of work.

4) Work is as busy as ever, and our company is relocating to a newly built headquarters (same town, so at least I don’t have to move).  But this has its own demands that spill into personal time.

5) I’m in a band that plays for a festival once a year, and we’ve been practicing a couple nights a week, which is also cutting into my time that would otherwise be spent analyzing data.  Let’s see…  music or data analysis…   tough call there.

6) We had a 2-month span of baseball everynight of the week, along with swimming lessons, along with ice-skating (indoors – even in Wisconsin we don’t ice skate outside in the summer), various camps, and so on.  Lots of running around.

7) Anyone who followed my personal posts in the past knows that we have a HUGE garden, which of course has now taken up additional time to maintain during the warm weather.

So, I’m afraid the blog is just firmly entrenched in the back seat at the moment.  As I look over my list, I’m wondering how I’ve even managed to fit all that in.   We’re all busy, of course, and I’m not complaining.  Just keeping readers in the loop.  As I said, I will be back.  Just a matter of when.

I’ll try to find my HadCrut analysis in the meantime.  Hopefully it didn’t get tossed out with the wallpaper.   I’ve also got at least one guest post to review that I can hopefully get up soon.

Here’s to an enjoyable summer to all!

Advertisements

6 Responses to “I suppose I should post something…”

  1. John said

    Happy to get any kind of update, life or climate related. Hoping that you have been enjoying the cool summer.

  2. Page48 said

    Always enjoy your blog, whatever the content. Good luck with the re-modeling – it’s always a bi#ch!

  3. joel mcdade said

    Hey I’d like to see your trading journal regardless of whether it “works” or not.

    … because you are a smart and honest guy.

    • The Diatribe Guy said

      Well, if you’re interested, I have it set up here: http://forums.forex-strategies-revealed.com/joe-journal-t12-30.html.

      I’m pretty sure you can access and read the forum even if not a member.

      At this point, my “demo” account is up over 40% in a little over a month with my current strategy of trading. The dollar amounts shown in the journal are my demo account, and not my live account, but I am trading nearly the identical scheme live right now.

      My caveat/warning is that one month is not necessarily indicative of the long-term viability of a strategy. Also, as the last week shows, things can swing wildly in this market.

      It will likely take me up to a couple years of thoroughly trading this strategy to make certain corrections that optimize the profit, but if I can continue to have decent results even if not optimized, it’s pretty cool. But time will tell.

  4. Jeff Id said

    Joe,

    I still read here and have been following your trading system. Does your software allow the collection of say a months worth of high resolution data on a large group of stocks?

    If it did, it might be possible to run a bunch of test methods to optimize results. If I had time for it it might be possible to set up a self learning genetic algorithm to modify rules repeatedly to get the best result on one month of data and then test it on a second month for QC.

    It could be based on your initial premise but alter the buy sell points processing the whole set over and over until the best results are achieved.

  5. The Diatribe Guy said

    Jeff, the trading I’ve been working on for a while is the Currency Exchange Market. I’ve mostly run it on demo accounts, though I risk a small amount of cash on a live account to force me to take it seriously while I try to get my arms around it. Nothing too much, because I totally expect to lose money for a while on it.

    On the Forex platforms, they actually have some decent history that can be downloaded. You can then write programs through the MQL4 language to test different strategies.

    I’ve worked on a few of these strategies, and backtested them against tick-by-tick price movements. One thing that became obvious to me is that the market for a particular currency will change the way it moves or signals its trends. I could develop a strategy that would triple an account in six months, and then blow it completely over the next year.

    95% of the people who trade in this market lose money. As I read more and more about the successful traders, they hammer it in that this needs to be approached as a business, and the 5% that make money are the ones who can make it through a couple years of learning and “investment” and it finally clicks.

    In my Forex journal that I linked to, I had come up with a system that looked promising for a couple months. It was a very simple trend-line system that doubled my account in 40 days. Very powerful when it works. However, the next 3 weeks showed that there are serious stretches of consecutive small losses that sent me into a 40% bear market. So, despite initial promising results and an overall positive growth in my account, I need to change that. I don’t have the stomach for that kind of negative result, even if I make money in the long term. Way too risky. I’d prefer a steady 5% per month growth.

    I have two methods I’m working on at the moment. One takes me back to the math roots, and I have a spreadsheet where I’m analyzing all sorts of stuff looking for optimum probabilities of future moves. This is showing some very nice preliminary possibilities. The other is a piggyback off my other strategy, except in reverse for weaker trend lines. This one I’m less clear on, and I am basing the strategy on what I saw happen over the last couple months under the other strategy I was using.

    Due to time constraints, I’m taking it fairly slow at the moment, but doing a little bit per day.

    As for your specific question, as I mentioned, there is a ton of good data available to backtest with. If this is something you’d like to look into, I’d be more than happy to let you know the details of what I’m looking at and you are more than welcome to see if you can optimize it through other programming methods.

    It’s a pretty addictive market, which is part of the problem. All the advice that says to not over-trade, don’t risk too much on any one trade, be patient, don’t try to get rich quick, don’t risk real money until you know what you’re doing – all very sound advice. I only risk the small amount that I do because I want the losses to hurt a little bit to keep me focused, but i don’t want to risk money that really hurts because then I may feel inclined to do something stupid and “gamble” trying to get it all back.

    And, by the way, I actually am working on an RSS post. I haven’t completely forgotten the blog. This summer’s been tough. Still working on our house, though it’s coming together.

    Hope all is well with you.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: