Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Hey! I found last month’s HadCrut notes!

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on July 17, 2009

As I was catching up on some things that I haven’t been able to get to lately because of all the otehr crap I have going on, I decided I had to actually pay my bills.  As much as I’d like to put that job off longer, I realize that certain things need to take place as they – in Covey-speak – shift into “Quadrant 1.”

Lo and behold, as I sifted through all the things that cost me money, and deliberated about the intelligence of some of our spending decisions, I found a piece of paper with a bunch of notes scribbled on it.   I blurted out something about HadCrut and it was one of those moments where the wife sees excitement in me where none should reasonably exist.  At these moments, she gets this look on her face, as if to pat me on the top of the head and say “Dear boy, is this truly what you’ve become? ”

Bah!  How can one NOT appreciate a bunch of numbers on a page summarizing temperature trending?   Seriously.   No…  really.


Unfortunately, I just don’t have the charts copied and uploaded, so my conundrum was “blog it or toss it?”   I decided that some of you still might appreciate the numbers, even if not pretty.  And I already jotted down the relevant points, so here’s a bunch of facts for those of you as starved for entertainment as I apparently am:

The May anomaly was 0.400 (degrees Celsius).  Or, 40.0 units, where a unit is 0.01 degrees Celsius.

This was 12.0 units above last year and 0.2 units above April’s anomaly.

Of May anomalies, it ranked 5th out of 160 (96th percentile).  Of total anomalies it was 83rd of 1,913 (95th percentile).

Overall slope since 1850 = 0.03668, or 0.440 degrees Celsius per Century (will heretofore use shorthand 0.440/C).

The 12-month average of 37.7 is up from 30.1 since last September, and is the highest average since the period ending December 2007.

Eleven of the last 13 anomalies are higher than the previous year anomalies.

One can fit a negative trend line from March 1997 through current (May 2009).  This period of cooling for 12 years and 3 months last occurred during the period that started December 1960.  That 37 year difference is roughly similar to the oceanic oscillation phase lengths, according to previous analysis I’ve done.  This doesn’t quite hold a candle to the longest cooling period in the data set – 800 months!  This was from April 1866 to May 1935.

The 60-month trend line has a slope of -0.2241 (-2.68/C).  This has been somewhat up and down.

120-month: 0.046383 (0.56/C).  Has trended down since mid-2008 after a brief increase from the previous declining trend.

180-month: 0.098107 (+1.18/C) – lowest slope value since the period ending September 1997.

240-month: 0.139398 (+1.67/C) – loest slope value since the period ending February 2001.

300-month: 0.154665 (+1.86/C) – lowest slope value since the period ending April 2005.

360-month: 0.129744 (+1.56/C) – lowest slope value since the period ending May 1999.


For the heck of it, I also took a look at the longer-term slopes, as follows:

40-year: 0.13193 (+1.58/C)

50-year: 0.11105 (+1.33/C)

60-year: 0.09597 (1.15/C)

70-year: 0.06891 (0.83/C)

80-year: 0.05931 (0.71/C)

90-year = 0.05936 (0.71/C)

100-year: 0.06220 (0.75/C)

From there, it trends down to the 0.44/C in the overall trend length.

Draw your own conclusions.   But do you see 4 degrees Celsisus over the next Century indicated in any of the data?  Even cherry-picking, you can’t find it.

4 Responses to “Hey! I found last month’s HadCrut notes!”

  1. Mike said

    Great analysis. But you missed the key figure:

    Average trend this century (Jan 2001 – latest month) is -1.2C/century.

  2. Luke said

    I used to get my info (particular land-ocean temps) from this address: but that seems to be extinct now. I’ve had a look for an equivalent site but with no luck. Any suggestions?

  3. The Diatribe Guy said

    What exactly are you looking for? The link to the right still works, as does the page hosting the various Land/Ocean measures:

  4. Mike said

    Well Hadcrut3 for August are out and from other temperature readings I thought we were going to be another month of endless wall to wall coverage about global warming. But NO! We have been saved from the BBQ Met Office’s latest ramblings (they predicted a BBQ summer and we got – rain rain rain and more rain!)

    I’m still hoping my personal wager that it will get cooler by Xmas holds true. OK statistically, based on the kind of noise present in global temperatures, its almost as likely to get warm as cool, but … well lets just say I’ve got this gut fealing that (has never been right before) but it says it’s going to be cooler by Xmas and as that’s about as scientific as the global warmers argument I’m sticking with it!

    And the trend remains -1C/century COOLING this century

    And … although the temperature has been rising and in July was 0.499C, unless the AVERAGE (not peak) is even higher at 0.515C for the next 17months then the clowns that censor wikipedia will have to admit that the temperature for the first decade this century was unequivacably cooling.

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