Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

New Game: Predict the Date

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 2, 2009

I clicked on the Ice Area chart a few moments ago. It had actually been a while since I looked at that. The link is to the right (IJIS).

To recap 2009: Ice minimum was again below average, but rebounded over 2008, which had rebounded over 2007. The current value is with the pack of normal values for this time of year – perhaps slightly low, but nothing that is unusual.

As much as two years ago, I essentially predicted exactly what has occurred through simple common sense. With the 2007 La Nina ushering in more of a freeze to see an ice rebound, I said we could reasonably expect 2008 to still melt quite a bit, but not to the extent of 2007, and that we’d probably see a slow cycle over the next few years with an overall rebound in ice. It wasn’t a spectacular prediction, and I didn’t use any fancy models. I just know that there is enough energy that needs to be dissipated before we can see a huge rebound from minimum levels, but the winter in 2007 seemed to be a kind of jumping off point from the rpevious melting trend.

The current El Nino may make things more interesting this year, but I’m maintaining my prediction of even more of a rebound in 2010. And that means that we’ll be getting up into the more average/typical levels of the previous decade.

So, given my thoughts, I decided to solicit predictions:

As of today, when will be the first published article quoting an “expert” predicting an “ice-free north pole” for 2010? And, yes/no – will we still see predictions of a completely melted north pole by 2012 or 2013?

My prediction: April 17, 2010. And yes.

Have at it.

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One Response to “New Game: Predict the Date”

  1. Mark Baker said

    I’ll go with March 30, 2010

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