Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Forex Account at 04/16/2010 Close

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on April 16, 2010

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 03/31/2010 settled by End of Day 04/16/2010
o/s xauusd 0.02 buy 1110.00 closed on 04/01 +28.38
o/s usdjpy 0.01 buy 93.87 closed on 04/02 +7.61
o/s usdjpy 0.01 buy 94.50 closed on 04/02 +0.74
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1120.00 closed on 04/05 +10.91
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1130.00 closed on 04/07 +19.46
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1140.00 closed on 04/08 +12.62
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1150.00 closed on 04/09 +8.77

New Orders since End of Day 03/31, settled by end of day 04/16 – ALL are GOLD orders (XAUUSD)
Date of entry / Lot size / Buy Price / Date of Settlement / Net Profit
04/09 SELL 0.01 1160 04/12 +2.50
04/13 BUY 0.01 1150 04/14 +10.05

New Orders Since end of day 03/31, still outstanding as of end of day 04/16 – ALL BUY GOLD positions
Date of purchase / Lot size / buy-in price
04/16 0.01 1140.00
04/16 0.01 1150.00

Current Equity Balance: $3,665.08
Given that as of 10/31/2009 the balance was $2,360.46, my current yield is 55.3% since that date.

Assessment of Risk:
Strategy is still to trade Gold LONG only, but I did execute one short trade. Within reach of all-time highs I will plan on looking for some quick profits on shorts, anticipating resistance. However, this is not critical to the strategy. (I have a few outstanding short positions on gold at lower prices and long positions on the dollar. I have one remaining old position against the Yen but these are holdovers from a previous strategy and I’m just riding them out for now, two of these were settled this last period). I am still trading without a stop loss. The risk is that prices continue to fall without a rebound, meaning that I am unable to cash in on profits while losing equity.

[The following is from last month – I don’t have my spreadsheet here at the moment, but I can say that my target continues to drop lower due to continued realized gains]Currently, I am trading position sizes of 0.01 lots at $10 increments from $1120 to $1230, and then I have position sizes of 0.02 lots at $10 increments from $1050 to $1110, then 0.01 lots from 970 to 1040 except at $1020 where it would be 0.02 lots. No plan for below 970 at the moment. These are adjustments I made to reach my safety net goal of being able to absorb a price fall to $965. (This is down from $970 as of 3/15. I want to continue to lower that target value. By the end of April, my target is to be able to absorb a drop to $960. The plan continues to be to slowly reduce that risk either through smaller lots, higher gaps between trades, or more capital. This comes with a slower percentage growth as it relates to capital, but that’s all part of the risk/reward trade-off. Preferably, I can accomplish the “more capital” part by profit taking rather than injection of funds. Short positions will also hedge against this – at the moment, I am not taking any potential shorts into consideration.

I am hoping to see a surge in the price of gold past $1230, because at that point I am going to reduce risk by not taking any positions until a $50 drop in the price, which is where a lot of my risk is without a lot of potential reward. As mentioned, I currently have short positions set for higher price levels. That is entirely speculative at this point, and kind of goes against the the grain of the entire purpose of this strategy, but I may be willing to take that risk. Still pondering that. I reserve the right to jump out of that.

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4 Responses to “Forex Account at 04/16/2010 Close”

  1. MJ said

    I recently came accross your site and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

  2. did you read this at WUWT?
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/25/predictions-of-global-mean-temperatures-ipcc-projections/

    This is the best I have seen, and backs up what Jeff has found.
    .6C warming per century. +/- .1

  3. The Diatribe Guy said

    Thanks for the link, Luke.

    In fact, one of those charts (the wave pattern) is something I have done myself, and have reached the same conclusion.

    I encourage you to check out something I did over a year ago: https://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2009/02/10/deconstructing-the-hadcrut-data/

    Summary of best-fit of sine waves:

    -The shifting of the wave phases over time lead to more fluctuation in the peaks and troughs, which explains why the right hand side of the chart fluctuates more than the left. Since the amplitudes of these waves are 1.5, one can imagine a time centuries from now where there would be astonishing swings in the temperature trends over 50-year periods of time.
    -The projected trough in temperature is expected to be June 2030 according to this chart. Average anomalies at that time would be slightly negative. The last half of next century would warm considerably.
    -All this fluctuation occurs over a linear trend that is less than a haf-degree Celsius per Century.

    I think 0.6 degrees is too high. But that’s not actually all that important, because it’s the phases of the underlying cycles that will cause the largest warm/cold swings in temperature. I am in complete agreement with the analysis that we are heading towards an approximate 2030 trough in global temperatures.

  4. Knowing how to trade in Forex is simply just not enough to be successful. In this largest and the most liquid financial market in the world, you need to have more than the knowledge and skills to be successful. You need to know about the different things involved in Forex to earn huge amounts of money.

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