Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Forex Account at 4/30/2010 Close

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on April 30, 2010

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 04/16/2010 settled by End of Day 04/30/2010
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1140.00 closed on 04/23 +12.59
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1150.00 closed on 04/23 +5.19
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1160.00 closed on 04/27 +7.25
o/s xauusd 0.01 buy 1170.00 closed on 04/27 +2.30

New Orders since End of Day 04/16, settled by end of day 04/30 – ALL are GOLD orders (XAUUSD)
Date of entry / Lot size / Buy Price / Date of Settlement / Net Profit
04/19 BUY 0.01 1130.00 04/20 +11.03
04/27 SELL 0.01 1162.00 04/27 +3.00
04/27 BUY 0.01 1150.00 04/27 +10.93
04/27 SELL 0.01 1170.00 04/28 +5.00
04/28 SELL 0.01 1172.00 04/28 +5.50
04/28 BUY 0.01 1170.00 04/30 +2.49

New Orders Since end of day 04/16, still outstanding as of end of day 04/30 – ALL GOLD positions
Date of purchase / Lot size / buy-in price
04/27 SELL 0.01 1164.00
04/30 SELL 0.01 1173.00
04/30 SELL 0.01 1180.00

Current Equity Balance: $3,890.42, which is up 6.15% since 4/16.
Given that as of 10/31/2009 the balance was $2,360.46, my current yield is 64.82% since that date.

Assessment of Risk:
Strategy is still to trade Gold LONG in the long term, but the current run-up has been pretty swift, so I am taking some small short positions. I will not buy any positions above $1,170 since we’re nearing the all-time high. I’d rather wait out a run-up if that is to happen, wait for price to stall, and then buy down on a correction. My rule of thumb once I close out long positions above $1,170 will be to wait it out to see what happens. I’ll buy back in at $1,170 and below, anticipating a bullish position. If price moves past all time highs, I’ll just wait to see where it stalls and then re-establish my buy-in points then. The strategy on the shorts right now is that, even though I’m bullish, I expect retracements to happen and we’re at levels now that I feel pretty comfortable that price will move down past profit targets at some point. When I hit a take-profit target, I move my sell-limit order up a dollar to keep pushing that limit up. I don’t want to go short at too low of a price, and I only consider it near the all-time high. However, this is not critical to the strategy, and if you want to avoid all risk on shorts in a bullish market, there’s nothing wrong with that. This is a judgment call on my part.

I have a few outstanding short positions on gold at lower prices that are holdovers from a previous strategy. I may unload these at a loss on a retrace back down, but we’ll see. I hate losing money… I only have one remaining long positions on the dollar against the Yen, alos a holdover from a previous strategy. I’ve settled the others in the last month, and am a mere 100 pips from settling this last one.

I am still trading without a stop loss. The risk is that prices continue to fall without a rebound, meaning that I am unable to cash in on profits while losing equity.

I am trading position sizes of 0.01 lots at $10 increments from $1120 to $1220 (because the $1180-$1220 points are still outstanding. I will not be re-filling orders at $1180-$1220 once I am able to close current positions, at least not until new highs are established). I have position sizes of 0.02 lots at $10 increments from $970 to $1110. The lone exception is 0.01 lot slated at $1000. There is currently no plan at the moment for below 970, but at this point I’d likely fund the account and continue with 0.01 lots. This is the schedule that currently plans for a price fall to $960. This is a $5 lower safe level than at March month-end, and I will continue to shoot for slowly reducing my risk through banking profits and structuring the trading plan accordingly. As I tweak the structure, it becomes less aggressive, which lowers both reward and risk, but the larger the account gets, the more inclined I am to protect it with very slow and steady reductions to risk. THe plan is to have a $955 target safe zone by May month-end. Preferably, I can get there by taking profits. Short positions hedge against this risk, and at the moment, I am being conservative by not taking any of my outstanding or potential shorts into consideration.

If I see a surge in the price of gold past $1180, I will help myself out by reducing risk by simply not taking any long positions above $1170 once the current longs are closed, which is where a lot of my risk is without a lot of potential reward. If price surges past $1230, then I’ll reset my buy points.

As mentioned, I am currently shorting at higher price levels. This is only a consideration near all-time highs, and while the risk is that price continues to surge, the shorts do act as a hedge by yielding profits when and if price does drop.

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