Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Forex Account Update as of 07/15/2010

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on July 15, 2010

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 06/30/2010 settled by End of Day 07/15/2010 – ALL are GOLD orders (XAUUSD) unless specified otherwise:
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Net Profit
06/29 SELL 0.01 1239.88 07/01 +12.23
06/15 SELL 0.01 1226.93 07/01 +12.12
06/04 SELL 0.01 1212.18 07/01 +9.05
05/25 SELL 0.01 1200.05 07/06 +6.03
05/24 SELL 0.01 1188.05 07/09 +0.15

New Orders since End of Day 06/30, settled by end of day 07/15 – ALL are GOLD orders (XAUUSD) unless specified otherwise:
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Net Profit
07/01 BUY 0.01 1203.05 07/02 +3.04
07/06 BUY 0.01 1191.02 07/06 +5.23
07/06 BUY 0.01 1191.02 07/07 +6.05
07/06 BUY 0.01 1203.05 07/08 +3.03
07/07 SELL 0.01 1203.05 07/08 +3.02
07/08 BUY 0.01 1191.02 07/08 +6.05
07/08 BUY 0.01 1203.05 07/09 +3.04
07/12 BUY 0.01 1203.05 07/12 +3.04
07/09 SELL 0.01 1203.05 07/12 +3.01
07/12 BUY 0.01 1203.05 07/13 +3.04
07/13 SELL 0.01 1215.20 07/14 +6.05
07/14 SELL 0.01 1215.20 07/14 +6.05
07/14 BUY 0.01 1203.05 07/14 +3.04
07/15 SELL 0.01 1215.20 07/15 +6.05

New Orders Since end of day 06/30, still outstanding as of end of day 07/15 – ALL GOLD positions unless otherwise specified
Date of entry / Lot size / Entry price
07/13 SELL 0.01 1203.05

Carried Orders Since before end of day 06/30, still outstanding as of end of day 07/15
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/18/09 BUY USDJPY 0.01 95.00
09/02/09 SELL XAUUSD 0.01 956.55
09/02/09 SELL XAUUSD 0.01 963.90
09/02/09 SELL XAUUSD 0.01 972.00
05/05/10 SELL XAUUSD 0.01 1165.00
06/24/10 BUY USDJPY 0.01 89.47

Current Equity Balance: $4,352.26, which is up 8.78% since 6/30.
Given that as of 10/31/2009 the balance was $2,360.46, my current yield is 84.38% since that date.

It was a more active couple of weeks. Gold dropped in price, exercising my short positions, and then traded in a semi-narrow range the rest of the way, and my trading almost took on the feel of scalping by entering and exiting at lower take-profit levels over the course of the couple weeks. The account gain has to do with both realized positions and a dumping of the shorts as price fell, gaining equity. Last week I said “Just need to be patient and wait for a retrace.” I got that retrace. I’d like to see it go below 1165, both to dump that short and pick up a few more long positions.

Assessment of Risk:
Strategy is still to trade Gold LONG in the long term, but as gold sticks around its all-time high, more of m,y activity in the short term has been to sell short. I will not buy any positions until price reaches $1,1203.05, per the strategy I’ve outlined. If price establishes a new all-time high, then my buy-in points adjust accordingly. At the current gold price, I’m in the range where I’m buying and selling, depending on the move price takes. It’s in this spot where there is more trading activity than normal, and price has been in that range most of the last two weeks. I have one remaining short from the previous all-time high, at $1165. When I close that out, I won’t be shorting anymore at levels below 1203.05.

I still have the old gold shorts from a previous strategy. In addition, I only have one remaining long position on the dollar against the Yen, also a holdover from a previous strategy, as well as a new Yen buy order that has nothing to do with this strategy. It just looked like an eventual profit opportunity, though it’s currently counting against equity.

I am trading BUY position sizes of 0.01 to 0.02 lots (mostly 0.02 now) at increments as defined above, down to my current $950 target. I am now at a target just below $948 as my risk target risk point. I’ve just reduced that with realized profits, maintaining the lot size schedule. With new high levels in gold being established, just maintaining those target levels pushed lot sizes lower, making the distiance in price to the zero level wider. Thus, I’m not as concerned about pushing those targets lower as aggressively as I had been, but I’ll continue to nudge them ever lower.

I have also calculated my “maximum price” level, assuming I continue to enter short positions on an upward surge in price. That price is now over $1490.00. This includes the effect of all old short positions currently held. As my account balance increases, so does the Max Price. So, by reducing my Minimum Price and continuing to increase my Maximum Price, my safe range continues to expand.


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