Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Forex Account Update as of 7/31/2010

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on July 30, 2010

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 07/15/2010 settled by End of Day 07/31/2010 – ALL are GOLD orders (XAUUSD) unless specified otherwise:
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Net Profit
05/05 SELL 0.01 1165.00 07/27 -3.72
07/13 SELL 0.01 1203.05 07/16 +3.02

New Orders since End of Day 07/15, settled by end of day 07/31 – ALL are GOLD orders (XAUUSD) unless specified otherwise:
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Net Profit
07/19 BUY 0.01 1179.11 07/20 +5.67
07/16 BUY 0.01 1191.02 07/21 +6.05
07/21 BUY 0.01 1191.02 07/22 +6.04
07/16 BUY 0.01 86.47 07/22 +6.55 <<usdjpy
07/23 SELL 0.01 1203.05 07/23 +3.01
07/27 BUY 0.02 1167.32 07/27 +0.72
07/27 BUY 0.01 1.0281 07/27 +5.51 <<usdcad
07/27 BUY 0.01 1168.31 07/29 +0.16
07/28 BUY 0.01 1162.19 07/29 +6.28
07/30 BUY 0.02 1167.32 07/30 +10.76

New Orders Since end of day 07/15, still outstanding as of end of day 07/31 – ALL GOLD positions unless otherwise specified
Date of entry / Lot size / Entry price
07/16 BUY 0.01 1203.05
07/23 BUY 0.01 1191.02
07/27 BUY 0.01 1179.11
07/30 BUY 0.01 86.55 <<usdjpy
07/30 BUY 0.01 1.0281 <<usdcad

Carried Orders Since before end of day 07/15, still outstanding as of end of day 07/31
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/18/09 BUY USDJPY 0.01 95.00
09/02/09 SELL XAUUSD 0.01 956.55
09/02/09 SELL XAUUSD 0.01 963.90
09/02/09 SELL XAUUSD 0.01 972.00
06/24/10 BUY USDJPY 0.01 89.47

Current Equity Balance: $4,478.10, which is up 2.89% since 7/15.
Given that as of 10/31/2009 the balance was $2,360.46, my current yield is 89.71% since that date.

It was a fairly active couple of weeks, mainly in the 1160-1200 range. My short 1165.00 short position was closed, and now all my gold trades except for those old carried positions are long. The account gain has to do with both realized positions and gain from my final short as price fell. Last post I said “I’d like to see it go below 1165, both to dump that short and pick up a few more long positions.” Well, I’d call the moves of the last couple of weeks a success in that area. My biggest issue is that I closed out of some profits too early. I could have done better all around by just waiting for profit targets.

Assessment of Risk:
Strategy is still to trade Gold LONG in the long term, and at the moment all my new entries are long. I will not short any positions until price reaches $1,1203.05, per the strategy I’ve outlined. If price establishes a new all-time high, then my buy-in points adjust accordingly.

I still have the old gold shorts from a previous strategy. In addition, I have occasionally entered some other random positions. These are not part of this strategy, but do add to my account balance. I only enter in areas of support/resistance on currencies that are near all time highs or lows. I have three long positions on the dollar against the Yen, one of which is a holdover from a previous strategy. I also have an outstanding long position on the USDCAD pair.

I am trading BUY position sizes of 0.01 to 0.02 lots (mostly 0.02 now) at increments as previously defined (look at old posts, or I’d be happy to explain in a comment if needed), down to my current $945.25 zero-balance target. I will reduce the zero-balance target area with profits from now on, and I plan on maintaining lot positions at or above current levels going forward. With new high levels in gold being established, just maintaining those target levels pushed lot sizes lower, making the distiance in price to the zero level wider. Thus, I’m not as concerned about pushing those targets lower as aggressively as I had been, but I’ll continue to nudge them ever lower. The exception is, if we see more all-time highs then I will probably increase the zero-balance level, because at that point we’re stretching the distance from high to zero-balance even further. That will impact overall yield a bit more than I’d like.

I have also calculated my “maximum price” level, assuming I continue to enter short positions on an upward surge in price. That price is now over $1500.00. This includes the effect of all old short positions currently held. As my account balance increases, so does the Max Price. So, by reducing my Minimum Price and continuing to increase my Maximum Price, my safe range continues to expand.

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