Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

La Nina Reading of -1.99

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on November 1, 2010

I’ve been off the reservation as far as following climate news over the last few months. Some day I’ll fill you in on everything that’s come my way… maybe 😉

Just curious if anyone’s talking about the -1.99 La Nina reading, which (if I’m reading my numbers correctly) is the lowest number since 1955.

Just another indication to me that my long-term cyclical chart on these indices has merit.

Should make for an interesting winter.

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3 Responses to “La Nina Reading of -1.99”

  1. Bob H. said

    Good to see you back online. I’m looking for a cold wet winter, despite the dry and warm we have had so far. It’s actually been pretty normal weather so far. I’ve been pretty busy as well, and tracking the sunspots would be more interesting if it wasn’t so difficult to find some of the sunspots that get a sunspot number. Oh well, I guess the powers that be need to do that so they can say the sun is coming back to normal…not.

    Hope you had a good Halloween and All Saints Day.

  2. The Diatribe Guy said

    Thanks, Bob. Time is pretty sparse for me these days, but I still like to keep a thousand-foot view of what’s going on.

    I do want to update some charts at some point to prove that I’m not “ducking and running” from some of the higher temp readings from the last few months. Seems pretty clear that this is ENSO driven given the elevated El Nino numbers. The dramatic swing down into La Nina has me expecting a colder winter. We’ve already seen a swing from consistently elevated temps throughout the summer in our neck of the woods (with a lot of rain) to average temps over the last month or so. By January, it will not surprise me at all if we are seeing below-average temps.

    But I guess we’ll just see what happens. I know that climate is more complex than just one index, but on average I think it will be our main driver of temps.

  3. slimething said

    I was reading your earlier posts on the AMO where you thought it may be unlikely for it to reach the 2005-2006 levels. This summer brought some very high AMO readings even exceeding that of 1998. It is now at .283. The AO is off the charts negative currently.

    It appears to me the AMO has quite an influence on Arctic ice conditions, but that is an unqualified statement. There are so many processes ongoing it is difficult to separate them.

    Also, NOAA recently downgraded their La Nina forecast just recently (again) from dropping rapidly after January to flattening and rising. So, although there was one short period of 1.99, it is possible we may have seen the deepest it will get (1.66 this month).

    Another index, SOI, is still very positive for the 90 day period and depending on how much of a lag there will be (5-7 months), we could see a warming spell in January then another crash for February and out like a lion (snow) in March. I’m speaking for my region, Michigan which is dependent on negative AO for temps.

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