Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Quick hit on the impact of the May HadCrut anomaly

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 29, 2011

Now that I have everything updated for April month-end, I just checked the HadCrut data set and see that they have released the May anomaly of 0.322.

This is actually a slightly lower value than the 12-month average value I had been using for my comments on the impact of future trend lines.

As I was reviewing, I am embarrassed once again to note an error that I uncovered in the process: that my 60-month chart was actually a 50-month chart. When corrected, the current slope on the 60-month chart is actually only 0.0167 at paril month end (nearly flat). This value was properly reflected on the slope charts, but not on the raw data chart. I will edit the post(s) as appropriate to reference that.

Anyway, I am not going to update all the charts, but thought I’d plunk in the new anomaly (caveat: I did not refresh the entire data set, and this will not account for any historical adjustments to the data). Here are the results:

60-month trend line has gone negative: slope = -0.009517. Expect a larger drop in this over the next two months. Equivalent of 0.006 degrees of total cooling over that period.

120-month trend line: Went more deeply negative. Slope = -0.064081. Equates to 0.077 degrees cooling over the last ten years.

180-month trend line: Slope dropped to 0.049704, the equivalent of 0.089 degrees warming over the entire period.

240-month trend line: Slope dropped to 0.138774, the equivalent of 0.333 degrees warming over that 20-year period.

300-month trend line: Slope dropped to 0.129338, the equivalent of 0.388 degrees warming over that 25 year period.

360-month trend line: Slope dropped to 0.134971, the equivalent of 0.486 degrees warming over that 30 year period.

With the new anomaly, the current longest trend line back that demonstrates a negative slope is still 14 years (June 1997 – May 2011).

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7 Responses to “Quick hit on the impact of the May HadCrut anomaly”

  1. Luke said

    The best argument is when the facts speak for themselves. So if the argument is that we have reason to be highly sceptical of AGW then I am happy to rely on these facts.

    I note that ENSO-neutral conditions are to continue through the remainder of 2011.

  2. Luke said

    “With the new anomaly, the current longest trend line back that demonstrates a negative slope is still 14 years (June 1997 – May 2011).”

    Should that be “neutral slope”?

  3. Luke said

    My layman’s reading of the data is that cooling has transpired since your last series of updates.

    • The Diatribe Guy said

      Yes, it has. I have an initial post up today with observations on the latest year’s worth of data. I will be updating with new charts over the next few days.

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