Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 12/31/2011]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 4, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 11/30/2011 settled by End of Day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
11/07/2011 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.22875 12/16/2011 1.22191 +5.38
11/30/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 122.416 12/01/2011 121.949 +5.85

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 11/30/2011, settled by end of day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
12/02/2011 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 105.574 12/02/2011 105.051 +6.72
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurusd 1.33584 12/08/2011 1.34206 +6.22
12/12/2011 BUY 0.01 gbpusd 1.55600 12/12/2011 1.56250 +6.50
12/13/2011 BUY 0.01 chfjpy 82.413 12/15/2011 82.887 +6.05
12/13/2011 SELL 0.02 usdjpy 77.989 12/30/2011 77.309 +16.64
12/14/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 1.04049 12/15/2011 1.03390 +6.40
12/15/2011 BUY 0.02 audusd 0.98813 12/15/2011 0.99356 +10.86
12/21/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpusd 1.57331 12/21/2011 1.56687 +6.44
12/22/2011 SELL 0.02 cadjpy 76.219 12/30/2011 75.747 +11.34

New Orders Since end of day 11/30/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
12/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.92497
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.85187
12/13/2011 BUY 0.01 eurjpy 101.742
12/13/2011 SELL 0.01 usdtry 1.8803
12/20/2011 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.29814
12/23/2011 BUY 0.01 eurcad 1.33078
12/27/2011 BUY 0.01 usdjpy 77.859
12/27/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.9129
12/28/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 120.411

Carried Orders Since before end of day 11/30/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103
09/16/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.0215
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99709

Equity Balance @ 12/31/2011: $3,799.09
Current Month Return: -5.06%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +60.95%
Annualized Return: +24.56%
Average monthly return: +1.85%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 11/30/2011: +27.34%
12/1/2011 – 12/31/2011: -5.06%

Overall 2011 Return: +15.47%

Journal Notes:
I will always have losing positions, and I will continue to hold and wait for a change in direction, or maybe at some point decide enough’s enough and I’ll close them. And while I’d love all my positions to make money within a day, week, or month I will evaluate success on cumulative account total, and I simply don’t get too concerned with certain positions that temporarily go the other way, or a month here or there that doesn’t work out.

Could the results just be a random drift with the expectation of an eventual correction? I don’t believe so for a few reasons: (1) my assumption is that retraces that get me into a position are not a 50/50 bet (ultimately) into eventually getting to a winning position; (2) these bets are not equal with respect to time, which means I can take profit as soon as I’m in profit, whereas I do not need to take profit in a losing position at all if I don’t want to. Thus, not all “bets” are equal in nature; (3) practically speaking, losses in these markets will never be infinite. Theoretically, a short could be, but realistically it will not. A long position cannot be. Third, I do reserve the right to ultimately dump a losing trade if I have reason to believe it’s a permanent loser. So, even if (1) and (2) were of no consequence, these limiting factors to the downside immediately render your expected value to be positive.

On the flip side, I do not have infinite capital, so there is the potential for a positive expected value that still results in elimination of my limited capital. I’ve never ignored that possibility. I make no guarantees that this really works at all.

The longer I sustain positive results, the more I do believe in it, but also realize that it takes a long time of consistency to actually prove anything. And some people will never get past the theoretical reasons why they think it won’t/can’t work out. Which is fine. I don’t suggest anybody trade in any way they don’t feel comfortable trading.

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