Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Temperature Trends for the last 240 months – HadCrut

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 21, 2012

Here are the latest charts for the HadCrut Global Temperature Anomalies, for the 20 year period ending March 2012.

The Data

What is presented here is the trend over the last 240 months, the slope of which has been in very consistent decline over the last eight years. The current slope itself is +.1228. Sp, at this point, the 20-year trend is still positive, even though the last 15 year trend line is slightly negative. This is due to the first five years of the period (1992-97) exhibiting lower anomalies than current averages. That said, the current slope is the lowest value for a 20 year trend line fitted since the period ending June 1998.

Chart below:

20 year Trend - HadCrut

Trend Line over Last 240 months – HadCrut

The next chart is simply a point of comparison. The highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 20-year period ending June 2004.

Recent Peak trend line

Peak 240 Month Trend Line

Finally, I show what has transpired with the slopes over the last number of years with the 20 year trend line. There has been a consistent decline in the slopes of the best-fitted lines. The decline itself is a very close linear fit. There is little indication that this decline will halt in the near term. If I plug the latest 12-month average anomalies into each of the next 6 months, we see this trend line dipping below the 0.10 mark in 6-7 months.

Trend in recent 240-month slopes

Trend in recent 240-month slopes

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