Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Archive for the ‘Current Events’ Category

No worries from CRU About Climategate

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on July 8, 2010

Gerald Warner sums it up, in Climategate: reinstating Phil Jones is good news – the CRU brand remains toxic. He is referring, of course, to the UK inquiry finding no wrongdoing at CRU.

“Move along now, please… Nothing to see here…” was the predictable burden of Sir Muir Russell’s investigation into Climategate. Are we surprised? Any other conclusion would have made world headlines as a first for the climate change establishment. This is the third Climategate whitewash job and it would be tempting to see it as just as futile as its predecessors. That, however, would be to underrate its value to the sceptic cause, which is considerable.

This is because Russell’s “Not Guilty” verdict has been seized upon as an excuse to reinstate Phil Jones at the University of East Anglia CRU, this time as Director of Research. That is very good news. It spells out to the world that the climate clique looks after its own; that there is no more a culture of accountability and job forfeiture for controversial conduct in AGW circles than there is in parliamentary ones; that it is business as usual for Phil and his merry men. Or, to put it more bluntly, the brand remains toxic.

Apart from Michael “Hockeystick” Mann, there is no name more calculated to provoke cynical smiles in every inhabited quarter of the globe than that of Phil Jones. The dogs in the street in Ulan Bator know that he and his cronies defied FOI requests and asked for e-mails to be deleted and that people only do that if they have something to hide. Every time some UN-compliant government or carbon trading interest group tries to scare the populace witless with scorched-earth predictions of imminent climate disaster and cites research from the East Anglia CRU – of which Phil Jones is Director of Research – it will provoke instant scepticism.

I may take issue with one thing: you can put James Hansen up there with Mann and Jones.

Posted in Climategate, Current Events, News, Phil Jones | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Planetary Skin

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on February 25, 2010

An admitted conspiracy nut on another board posted this link, but it is kind of interesting. I hadn’t heard of this before.

Planetary Skin

The policies and actions that will help move the world to a low-carbon economy and address the large-scale risks associated with climate change are profound and far-reaching. They require many different individuals and groups to take between them a vast array of small and large decisions, every day. Today, those decisions are made with only partial knowledge of the possible options, benefits, costs, and risks. Decision-makers are, in essence, flying blind. Whether acting globally or locally, they lack a trusted decision information infrastructure for mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change.

The skin that covers our bodies provides information from ‘sensors’ distributed throughout the body. Nerve endings in the skin gather sensory information and transmit it through the central nervous system for processing. The body responds with appropriate remedial action to regulate and adapt to change.

Planetary Skin can be thought of as a nervous system, covering the entire planet and providing a research and development platform for open collaboration between the public, private, academic and NGO sectors. It will collect data from space, airborne, maritime, terrestrial and people-based sensor networks and other sources of structured and unstructured data. It will model, predict, analyze and report in a standardized usable format over an open and adaptable cloud platform that is governed as a global public-good.

Planetary Skin Institute will research, develop and prototype an approach to provide near-to-real-time global monitoring of environmental conditions and changes. This will deliver the required decision support capabilities to manage global resources, risks and build environmental markets.

Thoughts?

And, from another article:

Mr Brown and French President Nicholas Sarkozy now are working proposals for a “European monitoring organisation” that will oversee every country’s actions on emissions.

The plan emerged after US President Barack Obama suggested that monitoring could be done using spy satellites.

Mr Brown revealed the plan in the early hours of Saturday morning, shortly before leaving Copenhagen.

He said: “I will work with President Sarkozy for a European organisation that will monitor the transparency that is being achieved not just in Europe and our own countries, but in every country around the world.

He added: “We’re in favour of transparency; we’re in favour of looking at what’s happening not just in our country and our own continent, but around the world.

“I think people deserve for there to be international reporting at the highest standards of what is being done.”

Spy satellites? Ummm….. what?!

Posted in Climate Change, Current Events, Earth, Global Warming, News, Planetary Skin, Politics, Technology | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Osama bin Laden Jumps on the Climate Change Bandwagon

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on January 29, 2010

First, I provide the article, and then I provide a secret conversation that has been lent only to us at Digital Diatribes, as to how this all came about!

CAIRO – Osama bin Laden sought to draw a wider public into his fight against the United States in a new message Friday, dropping his usual talk of religion and holy war and focusing instead on an unexpected topic: global warming.

The al-Qaida leader blamed the United States and other industrialized nations for climate change and said the only way to prevent disaster was to break the American economy, calling on the world to boycott U.S. goods and stop using the dollar.

“The effects of global warming have touched every continent. Drought and deserts are spreading, while from the other floods and hurricanes unseen before the previous decades have now become frequent,” bin Laden said in the audiotape, aired on the Arab TV network Al-Jazeera.

The terror leader noted Washington’s rejection of the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gases and painted the United States as in the thrall of major corporations that he said “are the true criminals against the global climate” and are to blame for the global economic crisis, driving “tens of millions into poverty and unemployment.”

Bin Laden and other al-Qaida leaders have mentioned global warming and struck an anti-globalization tone in previous tapes and videos. But the latest was the first message by bin Laden solely dedicated to the topic. It was also nearly entirely empty of the Islamic militant rhetoric that usually fills his declarations.

The change in rhetoric aims to give al-Qaida’s message an appeal beyond hardcore Islamic militants, said Evan Kohlmann, of globalterroralert.com, a private, U.S.-based terrorism analysis group.

“It’s a bridge issue,” Kohlmann said. “They are looking to appeal to people who don’t necessarily love al-Qaida but who are angry at the U.S. and the West, to galvanize them against the West” and make them more receptive to “alternative solutions like adopting violence for the cause.”

And now, the transcript from a secret conversation. Translated, of course:

[Bin Laden to inner circle]We must hit them hard. We must come out with a statement that will make the infidels quake in their overpriced Caterpillar boots.

Person #1: Osama, we have been working on a statement based on intelligence that tells us there is one thing that is striking fear in the hearts of these pagans. We must strike now, when – as they say in the West – the iron is hot.

Bin Laden: Do not give me sayings of the West, you blasphemer! What other phrase can we use to express the urgency of this matter?

Person #2: There is a great Persian saying, my eminence, about shaving the goat while it is eating the roots of the fallen tree.

Bin Laden: Blessings and thanks to you, my friend for bringing us back in proper focus. Now, Mohammed… what is this message for which we shall strike fear and trembling into the hearts of our sworn enemies?

Person #1: We have been following the infidel Albert Gore and the treacherous UN council labeled the IPCC. It seems as if they have already started the job for us. There is this concept of Climate Change for which they are creating all sorts of fantastical ideas about coming catastrophe.

Bin Laden: Indeed? Could it be that we can sit idly by and simply watch the destruction of the Western heathens without lifting a finger ourselves?

Person #2: Allah be praised if that were to happen, my clerical wonder. However, it is more likely that this is simply a ploy of exaggeration to – as they say in Persia – line their robes with peacock feathers.

Bin Laden: (grunt, and wave of hand) You speak to me of greedy unbelievers? Why do we spend our time with this prattle.

Person #1: Osama, they are being quite effective in causing angst and creating a sense of doom among their own people.

Bin Laden: Hmmm.. I think I understand. To what end might this lead?

Person #2: With Allah’s help, to their own destruction, my liege. You see, the infidels are prepared to engage in punitive taxation to supposedly combat the problem. They are to restrict all manner of energy independence with their own fuel resources. The people, it seems, are quite willing to – as they say in Persia – drown their own camels with the water from their own humps.

Person #1: What? I’ve never heard any such saying, Persia or otherwise!

Person #2: Um… I am quite certain…

Person #1: And the hump is a fat store, you fool! Admit it! You made that up!

Bin Laden: Enough! How is it do you suggest we take advantage of this?

Person #1: A stern statement against the policies of the West, blaming their infidel policies for causing climate change would be most certain to panic these Western swine into self-destruction! Taxes would rain like blood on the land, and carbon credits would starve competition. It would be quite wonderful.

Bin Laden: While I prefer something a bit more… exciting… I can appreciate this as one leg of the stool in our ongoing attack against the West. Please draft a statement, which I will then read and record, and present to the world in my usual dramatic fashion.

Person #2: As you, by Allah, command.

Posted in Climate Change, Current Events, Humor, News, Osama bin Laden | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

State of the Climate… and Weather 12/04/2009

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 4, 2009

OK, so in the past couple months, if I did not have time to do analysis and write it up I didn’t do anything. In order to maintain a little more activity, I’ll try to make sure I get a post in at least a couple times a week, if not more. Hopefully it’s not utter garbage, and I can find a way to captivate the attention of the reader.

I’d insert a sex joke here if this was not a family blog. Since it is, I’ll make fun of people instead. It’s the Christian thing to do…

Let’s start with a snowfall in Houston. This is weather, not climate. I get it. And yet…

Today’s daylong snowfall, the earliest in Houston’s history, is beginning to let up as the storm system that caused it moves eastward. Meanwhile, temperatures have fallen throughout the day and as of 3:30 p.m. were sitting at 35 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Factor in the wind and it felt more like the mid-20s.

The National Weather Service noted that it’s the first time Houston has had two consecutive years of measurable snow.

CLIMATEGATE ALERT: After observing the data and pictures of the Houston “snowfall,” Phil Jones has determined that it is really not snow at all, but instead it is “sublimated wator vapor of alien origin” and that the cooler temperature is a result of “residual ufo engine condensation acting as a propeller coolant.” This is Houston, people. It’s warm there and it’s getting warmer. Snow never happened. Fools.

Let’s move on the the experts, who have actually at least admitted to the fact that there were cooler temperatures in recent years. Rest assured, though, that we can still panic. Thank the good Lord in Heaven that all is not well. Funding and taxes may continue as planned.

Cooler temperatures in North America last year do not mean global warming is easing, government and academic scientists said Friday. Their report comes just days before President Barack Obama heads to Copenhagen, Denmark, to speak at a United Nations conference on climate change.

Rising temperatures over decades have prompted scientific concern, and the last decade has been the hottest in thousands of years, according to climate records. However, the warming eased over North America last year, and groups seeking to deny climate change seized on that in an effort to challenge the idea of overall warming.

North America wasn’t as warm as expected because of cooler water in the North Pacific—a condition called La Nina—but the rest of the world continued to warm, researchers said Friday. The overall warming trend is expected to continue worldwide.

Yeah, um… actually it really didn’t continue to warm worldwide last year. I’m pretty sure I have seen some idiot present some charts somewhere that shows a declining short-term trend line around the different global regions. Let’s see… where might I have seen that? Well, maybe I imagined it. OK, I guess since I read it in the “paper” on the internet, and since it comes form experts and trusted government scientists or something, then I better believe it. We all know they’d never lie to us. Just stop it, people, with your conspiracy theories. Michael Mann will come after you with a hockey stick.

Somebody needs to tell Representative Issa that he’s a nutjob.

“The very integrity of the report that the Obama administration has predicated much of its climate change policy has been called into question and it is unconscionable that this administration and Congress is willing to abdicate responsibility of uncovering the truth to the United Nations,” explained Issa, the ranking member on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Who does this guy think he is, causing all this ruckus and stuff and discrediting our public officials? They know best. In fact, they should decide everything we do and how we do it. They’re smarter, you see.

Well, at least the vaunted and well-respected Mainstream Media isn’t that dumb. Good for them, ignoring a news item on principle. We wouldn’t want to report the news and risk people getting the wrong idea, after all. Heroes, all of them. Especially that guy Keith Obermann. A real truth-teller, that guy.

For the fourteenth straight day, the three broadcast networks have failed to report on the great and growing ClimateGate scandal on their weekday morning or evening news programs. How to explain this?

Perhaps it is that ABC, NBC and CBS have not yet heard of the story, despite two weeks of non-stop reporting on and discussion of ClimateGate in a whole host of media outlets.

Posted in Current Events, Global Warming, News | Tagged: | 6 Comments »

The NOAA and Claims of the Highest August Ocean Temperature

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on September 17, 2009

I was going to write a post on this whole thing, but before I did, I decided to scan some of the otehr blogs. It would appear that I have little to add to this, so I am gooing to link to them instead.

Here’s the basic summary: NOAA announced that we’ve just seen the highest Ocean Surface temperatures in, like, ever! Here’s the link at Watts giving us that story.

Jeff at The Air Vent also provided us with a skeptical take on the announcement. His post has since been updated, to now refer to ICECAP’s Joe D’Aleo, who summarizes the now-discovered issue:

Icecap Note: to enable them to make the case the oceans are warming, NOAA chose to remove satellite input into their global ocean estimation and not make any attempt to operationally use Argo data in the process. This resulted in a jump of 0.2C or more and “a new ocean warmth record” in July. ARGO tells us this is another example of NOAA’s inexplicable decision to corrupt data to support political agendas.

Bob Tisdale now has a guest post on Watts Up With That, showing the incongruence in NOAA’s assessment versus others.

This is so blatant, it’s almost amazing.

Whatever one’s thoughts on climate change, nobody should stand for such shoddy science, changes in methodology, and exaggerated statements of “fact.”

It does nobody any good.

Posted in Climate Change, Current Events, Global Warming, NOAA, Oceans, Science | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Real Cost of Cap and Trade

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on September 16, 2009

There is a lot of stuff flying around for and against the Cap-n-Trade Scheme that dares to lurk as a possibility for enactment. So, what do the internal goverment memos say about it? I’ve heard it won’t really cost anything. And it’s green. If it’s green, it must be good, right? Yeah. We like green. Go into a store now and you’ll find green everything. It’s green because batteries last 10% longer, or because it used 5% less energy. It’s green because it’s made with 10% recycled plastic. We just moved into a new corproate office not long ago, and I’m pleased to let everyone know that it’s green. Ironically, they damn A/C is always on too high, and I’m one of the few who seems to think it’s a waste of energy, even though I’m not really a “greenie” because I don’t buy into global warming.

But I digress.

In a Washington Times article we get the scoop, thanks to the Freedom of Information Act:

Officials at the Treasury Department think cap-and-trade legislation would cost taxpayers hundreds of billion in taxes, according to internal documents circulated within the agency and provided to The Washington Times.

Huh. Go figure. Who’d have thought that this might actually cost us money? Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Cap and Trade, Carbon Taxes, Carbon Trading, Climate Change, Congress, Current Events, Global Warming, News, Politics | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The $100 Billion Carbon Trading Scam (That will be ignored in Copehagen)

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on September 14, 2009

From the UK Times Online:

Carbon-trading market hit as UN suspends clean-energy auditor

The legitimacy of the $100 billion (£60 billion) carbon-trading market has been called into question after the world’s largest auditor of clean-energy projects was suspended by United Nations inspectors.

SGS UK had its accreditation suspended last week after it was unable to prove its staff had properly vetted projects that were then approved for the carbon-trading scheme, or even that they were qualified to do so.

The episode will be embarrassing for European lawmakers in the run-up to the global climate summit in Copenhagen, where they will attempt to lure big polluters such as America and China into a binding agreement to replace the Kyoto protocol. SGS is the second such company to be suspended – Norway’s DNV was penalised last November for similar infractions.

The EU’s carbon-trading system, which puts a price on pollution through carbon permits that can be bought and sold, is the key element in Europe’s fight against climate change.

About a fifth of the $100 billion of credits traded annually come from projects funded under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The heavily criticised programme allows industrialised countries to offset their pollution by buying “certified emission reductions credits” generated by low-car-bon schemes in the developing world. China and India are the biggest generators of the credits: more than 900 projects are now running, producing billions of credits, with thousands more in the pipeline.

Critics say the system is not sufficiently policed and allows western polluters to buy their way out of more costly carbon-cutting measures.

All such schemes must first be approved by organisations such as SGS. DNV was the single biggest auditor until it was suspended last year, when much of its workload was shifted to SGS, which was simply unable to cope.

Simon Shaw, chairman of EEA Fund Management, a backer of emission-reduction projects and an investor in Climate Exchange, the carbon-trading platform, said: “There was obviously a lack of resources. We knew this was coming.”

UN inspectors said they found six irregularities in a recent spot check. The firm has now rectified these, but remains suspended until the UN verifies sufficient changes have been made. SGS could not be reached for comment.

Lawmakers are expected to reform the CDM in Copenhagen in December. A research firm that tracks trends in clean energy and carbon trading has been put up for sale with a £30m-£40m price tag. New Energy Finance was set up in 2004 by Michael Liebre-ich, a former McKinsey consultant who owns a key stake.

Its backers include former Reed Elsevier boss Sir Crispin Davis and Mike Luckwell, a one-time investor in Hit Entertainment. The corporate finance firm Quayle Munro was brought in to advise on options after takeover approaches were received.

Why do I have a suspicion that this won’t give our administration pause in signing off on similarly stupid programs here. After all, it couldn’t possibly happen here, right? And besides, we have to do something!

Posted in Carbon Trading, Current Events, News | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

The Global Warming Solution is… (drum roll please)… Spraying Clouds With Seawater!

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on September 9, 2009

Salt-shaker_large

Yes, it’s true. Making big, white, puffy clouds even bigger, whiter, and puffier is the latest brainchild of the ignoramuses who consider themselves to be elite thinkers. Oh, I’m sorry… is that too judgmental? Excuse me: the proposed solution is the latest theoretical benchmark in the climate change debate. Better? I wouldn’t want to offend anyone.

So, apparently the answer is to spray saltwater into clouds. But don’t let me explain it. Here’s the story:

We’ve Solved It! And it only took until lunch time!

…So how would they fix the global climate threat? How about keeping global temperatures in check by spraying clouds with drops of seawater to help make them bigger and whiter and more reflective of the sun’s rays. That’s the conclusion of a small panel of very acclaimed economists assembled by the Copenhagen Consensus, the Nobel-heavy brain trust assembled every year by Bjorn Lomborg, the iconoclastic author, to tackle the world’s problems. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Carbon Taxes, Climate Change, Current Events, Global Warming, News | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Keeping Watch on the Redoubt Volcano

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on January 30, 2009

No doubt about Redoubt?  Scientists say it's ready to blow.

No doubt about Redoubt? Scientists say it's ready to blow.

While nobody wishes for volcanic eruptions, due to the obvious destructive capabilities they present, they are at the same time awesome events to behold (particularly for those of us not in harm’s way).

Reality is reality, though. I suppose it is always possible that scientists are mistaken about the imminence of a volcanic eruption, but all indications are that the 10,200 Redoubt Volcano, about 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, is on the verge of eruption.

From the story I linked to:

On Nov. 5, geologists noted changed emissions and minor melting near the Redoubt summit and raised the threat level from green to yellow. It jumped to orange – the stage just before eruption – on Sunday in response to a sharp increase in earthquake activity below the volcano.

Alaska’s volcanoes are not like Hawaii’s. “Most of them don’t put out the red river of lava,” said the observatory’s John Power.

Instead, they typically explode and shoot ash 30,000 to 50,000 feet high – more than nine miles – into the jet stream.

From the L.A. Times we get a picture of the last eruption, in 1989.

It would not be a pleasant period in Anchorage if Redoubt were to blow its top, if its previous eruption is any indication.

For five months beginning in December 1989, smoke and ash from the 10,197-foot peak disrupted international air traffic and deposited volcanic dust throughout the Anchorage region.

Now, as this applies to climate, we can already prepare ourselves for the response to probable continued cooling in 2009: “Well, of course it cooled. That volcano over in Alaska erupted. It’s all that Palin gal’s fault, you know.”

Now, far be it from me to suggest that introducing megatons of ash into the air won’t have a cooling impact on the climate. It absolutely does, to one degree or another (catch the pun? Ha! I slay myself…), depending on the amount of ash, its composition, how high and persistent it is in the jet stream, yada yada. So my contention is not that such an event won’t contribute to cooling. My issue will be – as I predict will happen – that this will be a psychologically welcome event by AGW supporters so they have a convenient scapegoat for ALL cooling that ensues for the next year after this eruption.

But that’s conjecture. We shall see. Until then, here’s hoping and praying for the safety of our friends in the great state of Alaska. By the way, I like your guys’ quarter.

Posted in Alaska, Climate Change, Current Events, Earth, Mount Redoubt, News, Science, Volcanos | Tagged: , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Los Angeles Earthquakes and Solar Cycles

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on January 25, 2009

Before I even start this post, I want to make it clear that I am not implying anything in particular about the correlation of earthquakes and solar cycles.  Secondly, I certainly am not making an implication about a specific geographical area’s earthquakes and solar cycles.

However, I read this article about a recent study on L.A. Earthquakes with some interest, and just decided to start poking around some solar cycle information, and I found what seems to be a somewhat interesting correlation.  I thought I’d throw it out here just for kicks.

First, let’s take the pertinent part of the article, as far as the study itself goes:

But the new research by UC Irvine scientists, to be published next week, found that major quakes occurred there roughly every 137 years over the last 700 years. Until now, scientists believed big quakes occurred along the fault roughly every 200 years.

Lisa Grant Ludwig, a principal investigator on the study, first visited the Carrizo Plain about 20 years ago, digging trenches in an area west of the Panorama Hills known as the Bidart Fan.

By looking at the pattern of soils and using radiocarbon dating on charcoal deposits, she found evidence of five large earthquakes dating back to the early 1200s. She found a gap of some 400 years between the 1857 earthquake and the one before, but only about 100 years separating the three preceding quakes.

Back then, the earthquake age estimates were very rough and the samples had to be fairly large, about the size of a jelly bean. Ludwig saved field notes and hundreds of soil samples in glass vials in her garage for more than 15 years, hoping that radiocarbon dating techniques would improve.

Once the technology improved, Ludwig and her colleagues could date samples with much higher precision and analyze charcoal flakes as small as the tip of a pencil.

They went back to her archive, and the redating effort, led by scholar Sinan Akciz, found that the four big earthquakes before the 1857 temblor probably occurred around 1310, 1393, 1585 and 1640.

Because they are looking at only a handful of earthquakes, scientists can’t be sure that the pattern will hold, Ludwig said.

Ludwig’s team has dug some new trenches in the area to supplement the redating project, hoping to find new soil samples that show the increased frequency of large earthquakes.

Results won’t be finalized for a few months, Ludwig said, but preliminary analysis suggests that the time interval between earthquakes may be even shorter, something on the order of 100 years.

My first reaction to this was, “You have 5 data points, totaling 4 time differentials, and two of those differentials are 192 years and 237 years. It’s kind of difficult to get too worked up about a simple average and say that things are overdue.”

But another part of me was intrigued in that we had actual dates. My initial reaction was to go to sunspot counts. Unfortunately, only one of those dates coincides with any remotely good monthly sunspot numbers.

I decided to head to a different source. Landscheidt’s Swinging Sun paper I’ve discussed from time to time.

One chart from this paper caught my attention. I have included it here, with the dates of the earthquakes as provided in the article superimposed on it with the red lines. I eyeballed it, but it’s close enough for jazz:

figure4

Some explanation is in order regarding the chart. I have included the verbiage from the paper regarding that exhibit (Figure 5 in the paper), with a couple explanatory notes to clarify things where necessary.

The plot in Fig. 5, the author of which is Gleissberg (1958), shows the secularly smoothed invervals DM between consecutive maxima in the 11 Year Cycle which also follow the 80 Year Cycle. Minima of DM correspond to maxima of the highest smoothed monthly average of sunspot numbers RM and vice versa. Gleissberg’splot covering the years AD 300 to 1950 is based on data published by Schove (1955) . [Layman’s terms: the shorter the cycle, the higher the magnitude on a monthly average basis.]
Secularly smoothed intervals DM between consecutive maxima in the 11-yr cycle contouring the secular variations in solar activity which are synchronous with relevant distance minima RDM meeting the time integral of torque criterion Cnl. Positive and negative RDM, the polarities of which follow the phases of the 79-yr cycle, are represented by arrows pointing up or down respectively. [Layman’s terms: The relevant Distance Minima means the distance of the center of the sun from the center of mass of the solar system. The chart shows a correlation between the distance of the center of sun from the center of mass of the solar system with cycle length.

The arrows in Fig. 5 represent the positive and negative RDM the dates and polarities of which are given in Fig. 4. [not shown – the up-arrows correspond with positive polarity. Polarity here is not referring to polarity of sunspots, but of the phase in the 79-year cycle.] Few successive RDM showing the same polarity at the short interval of about 20 years like —RDM 458, —RDM 481 or +RDM 816, +RDM 839 were marked at the mean date. The correspondence with peaks and troughs in the Gleissberg data is evident.

Well, I’m just throwing this out there. The earthquakes seem to correspond in their timing at some point after a relative distance minimum corresponding to short cycles with positive phase polarity, but before the next distance minimum corresponding to longer cycles with negative phase polarity.

Since there are only 5 dates presented, this could be coincidence. In addition, while the earthquakes coincided with that criteria, it is not the same as saying that criteria always corresponded with an earthquake.

Nonetheless, I thought it an interesting chart, be it coincidence or something more real than mere coincidence.

The current criteria according to the charts is currently satisfied. We are on the downside of a series of short cycles. The current cycle is longer. If the next cycle would be long as well, then the next few years represents a window where – if past correlation is more than coincidence – could represent a potential earthquake event for Los Angeles. This is far from conclusive, but interesting nonetheless.

We are currently on the area of the polarity phase that also matches the criteria. Based on past events, we would be on the right spot of the chart until 2020-2025.

Here’s hoping that this is pure coincidence.

Posted in California, Current Events, Cycles, Earth, Earthquakes, Landscheidt, Los Angeles, News, Science, Solar cycles, Sun, Sunspots | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »