Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Archive for the ‘Game’ Category

New Game: Predict the Date

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 2, 2009

I clicked on the Ice Area chart a few moments ago. It had actually been a while since I looked at that. The link is to the right (IJIS).

To recap 2009: Ice minimum was again below average, but rebounded over 2008, which had rebounded over 2007. The current value is with the pack of normal values for this time of year – perhaps slightly low, but nothing that is unusual.

As much as two years ago, I essentially predicted exactly what has occurred through simple common sense. With the 2007 La Nina ushering in more of a freeze to see an ice rebound, I said we could reasonably expect 2008 to still melt quite a bit, but not to the extent of 2007, and that we’d probably see a slow cycle over the next few years with an overall rebound in ice. It wasn’t a spectacular prediction, and I didn’t use any fancy models. I just know that there is enough energy that needs to be dissipated before we can see a huge rebound from minimum levels, but the winter in 2007 seemed to be a kind of jumping off point from the rpevious melting trend.

The current El Nino may make things more interesting this year, but I’m maintaining my prediction of even more of a rebound in 2010. And that means that we’ll be getting up into the more average/typical levels of the previous decade.

So, given my thoughts, I decided to solicit predictions:

As of today, when will be the first published article quoting an “expert” predicting an “ice-free north pole” for 2010? And, yes/no – will we still see predictions of a completely melted north pole by 2012 or 2013?

My prediction: April 17, 2010. And yes.

Have at it.

Posted in Arctic, Game | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

The NOAA Game – Guess the Anomaly

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 2, 2009

I always like taking a quick look at some visuals, and one site I check in with is the NOAA regional climate maps site. The link to that can be found to the right under “Resources – Climate Maps.”

You have to jump around quite a bit to view all the different maps, so I decided to show them here. All visuals in this post are credited to the NOAA website to which I just referred. The other reason I posted them here is because those visuals update each week under the same link. The historical maps aren’t kept (at least not publicly that I’ve found).

Anyway, also under “Resources – NOAA Data” you will find their temperature anomalies. May hasn’t yet been released. This isn’t considered one of the major temperature measures, but it is nonetheless important, because it is the data that is used in the GISS temperature anomaly release. Hansen and company take the information and adjust it according to their algorithms, which is why GISS differs in the end from NOAA.

As a point of reference, the last four anomalies in the NOAA data are:

January: 0.5469
February: 0.5049
March: 0.5392
April: 0.5990

I thought it would be a neat little exercise to look at all the maps, and guess the anomaly for May. Let’s see what we’ve got (note that NOAA bolds and underlines the preliminary nature of these maps (probably so that some fool on the internet doesn’t try to use them to figure out actual temperature anomalies). Oh, and I just scrunched all the maps to the same size, so some look a little funny. Just click on them for a better view.:

Argentina

No cry for me Argentina


Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Game, Temperature Maps | Tagged: , , | 18 Comments »