Digital Diatribes

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Archive for the ‘RSS’ Category

Update on What’s Going on in the Tropics – RSS

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on September 8, 2009

Continuing my series (Antarctica, Arctic) of looks at the more regional breakdown of the RSS Temperature Anomaly Data, I am now moving on to the Tropics.

This is actually a fairly interesting region to observe. This, along with the Antarctic(ish) region was a contributor to the higher July anomaly.

Data Point
The July anomaly was 57.90 units (where 1 unit = 0.01 degrees Celsius). This was a pretty warm anomaly, ranking 14th out of 367 total observations in the data set, and ranking tops as the warmest July on RSS record (31 years of records). The increase over last July was 54.10 units, and the increase over June 2009 was 36.1 units. It would have been a great time for your equatorial vacation if you like running around in a Speed-o (note to readers: I do not wear a Speed-o).

It should be noted that the overall average anomaly in the data set is actually 6.27, and not zero. So, if one considers the overall average to be the point of departure from which an anomaly should be measured, the values are slightly overstated. Not as much as in the Arctic, but overstated nonetheless. This may seem conniving, but I don’t read much into it. Restating all historical anomalies every month to consider the latest average makes it difficult for the casual reviewer to come to grips with trends, and since all values would be changing, some may question whether or not the change is anything more than a readjustment to baseline. No, it probably is best to make only the occasional adjustment if and when the average drifts too far from zero. In this case, I probably would leave the Tropics as is. One could probably argue that the Arctic baseline should be changed and the anomalies adjusted, but it all really only matters if you let the perception of a high number cloud the issue. Unfortunately, too many people – including those who probably know better – will tend to look at the magic number of 100.00, for example, and freak out about the high number.

Streaks
One of the interesting things I noted in the anomaly record was the tendency of this region to have some persistency in relative temperature. Starting with April 2004, we saw a stretch of 9 consecutive months where the anomaly was cooler than previous year. That was followed by a stretch of 9 consecutive months with anomalies warmer than previous year. After that, we had a stretch of 12 consecutive months where the anomaly was cooler than previous year. In the next year, 10 of the 12 months were warmer than previous year. Then, we saw 12 consecutive months of anomalies that were cooler than previous year. We are now in the midst of a stretch of warmer-than-previous-year anomalies, with July being the 10th consecutive such month.

Averages
Thanks to the last couple higher anomalies, the 12-month average is 15.3, which is the highest average since the year ending January 2008. The 12-month average reached a low of -13.1 10 months ago and has steadily increased since then to current level.

Trends:

Overall:

rsstropicsoverall200907

RSS TROPICS Overall Trend Line

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Earth, Global Warming, RSS, Temperature Analysis, Tropics | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Comparison of UAH versus RSS – Lucia’s Blackboard

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 11, 2009

I’ve started looking at some of the other blogs I’ve noted over the last few months. I’ve added Jennifer Marohasy’s and Lucia’s Blackboard to the blogroll. More are sure to come, but since I don’t have all the time in the world to give them a good look, I’ll add as I come across sources that look to have value. Value is defined here as “any blog that I feel inclined to visit every now and then.”

It just so happens that as I checked out Lucia’s Blackboard, she had a post up that was very similar to one that I was contemplating once I had updated the UAH trends (to come soon…). There’s no point in me duplicating work, so I’m linking to her post here:

————–

UAH temperature anomalies were officially posted yesterday. I thought you all might like to see a graph of temperature anomalies with uncertainty intervals. I included a trend of 2C/century for references:

UAH vs RSS

UAH vs. RSS

Click here for the rest of her post.

Posted in RSS, Temperature Analysis, UAH | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

June 2009 Update on Global (and Regional) Temperature – RSS

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on June 5, 2009

The RSS Data has been released. I thought I’d take this opportunity to not only look at the global value, but also the northernmost satellite data (Arctic), the equatorial regions (Tropics), and the southern-most readings (near Antarctic – the satellite coverage doesn’t reach all the way to the pole).

Since I’m hitting all the regions, I won’t get present all the backup charts, but I will provide a numerical update on the trends. For each, I’ll simply show the overall trend using all RSS data, and the furthest line back where we can draw a flat or negative trend line.

GLOBAL:
Data Point
The anomaly for the month of May was 0.090 (will be heretofore presented in 0.01 degrees Celsius, or 9.0). This is 11.2 lower than the previous month, April 2009 and 16.8 higher than May 2008.

Ranking: 16th largest anomaly out of 31 May readings (48th percentile) and 177th of 365 total anomalies (51st percentile).

12-month average = 18.2. This increased over last month due to last year’s very low anomaly dropping from the average. Thus, it is the highest average since March 2008.

May was the sixth consecutive month for which the monthly anomaly exceeded the previous year’s anomaly, despite the drop from previous month.

Global Overall Trend Line since 1979:

rssglobaloverall0906

RSS Global Overall Trend

The overall trend dropped from 0.12904 to 0.12802. This represents the units, in 0.01 degrees Celsius, of trending per month. It corresponds to an overall temperature trend of 1.54 degrees per Century.

Flat/Cooling Trend Line:

rssglobalcooling0906

RSS Global Flat/Cooling Trend

The length has now increased another month on the back end, and also on the front end. The flat line now extends back to February 1997, making its length 12 years and 4 months.

There is no other period in the RSS data set where cooling occurred over a 12-year, 4-month period. The data set, however, only extends back to 1979.

As an aside, I like to take a look at some posts on boards where my information is posted. Last month, someone posted the link where I pointed out that we have now gone past 12 years without a warming trend. A responder glibly replied something along the lines of “How embarrassing for that author. RSS and UAH post the decadal trends in their data.” He pointed out the positive decadal trends.

What is embarrassing is the complete lack of comprehension in the difference in what is being presented. It would have taken that person all of 10 seconds to see my longer-term trends where I state the per-century trend in temperature according to the slope. The fact that I presented a recent, isolated period of no trending doesn’t in any way conflict with a longer-term decadal trend. I never cease to be amazed at the lack of understanding people have – or at least seem to have – on such basic statistical presentations.

What’s Happening with the various trend lines?
60-month: -0.307510 (-3.69 degrees per Century). Looks to decline to the steepest negative value since the mid-80’s soon.

120-month: +0.058601 (0.70 degrees warming per Century). Now back to the level seen in June 2008, and expected to go negative by year end.

180-month: 0.077408 (0.93/C). Lowest slope since the period ending September 1995. This could go as low as 0.05 by the end of the year.

240-month: 0.151595 (1.82/C). This is a steeper slope, but is now at its lowest point since July 2001.

300-month: 0.163786 (1.97/C). This is the lowest since August 2003. The 25-year slope is the steepest of the measures.

360-month: 0.126892 (1.52/C). Lowest of the 6 observed data points.

What does it all mean? Well, we have cooled recently. But those things can happen. The 12+ falt period is getting long enough to become statistically relevant, but looking at the RSS data set just doesn’t give us a large enough data set to compare likelihood. Longer term periods definitely show that we have warmed over a lengthier period of time – that’s not really in dispute. However, any claims of acceleration in warming are simply false, as can be shown by the fact that ALL trend line measures are declining. If warming were accelerating, we would see slopes increasing.

ANTARCTIC(ish)

rssantarcticoverall0906

RSS Near-Antarctic Overall Trend

Only one chart is provided, since the overall data set is also the longest cooling period. The chart, however, pretty much shows a flat line. And even though we have this lengthy cooling trend, it jumps back and forth depending on your starting point whether the trend is warming or cooling – which pretty much means it’s a flat line.

Starting at the beginning with January 1979, it’s a negative trend. Here are all the reversals that take place (starting points to current): April 1981 (+); October 1982 (-); November 1982 (+), May 1989 (-), February 1990 (+), April 1990 (-), June 1990 (+), July 1990 (-), August 1990 (+), October 1990 (-), January 1991 (+), June 1996 (-), August 1996 (+), January 2000 (-). All starting points since then show a negative slope.

The May anomaly was 30.9, which was 86.8 higher than last month, but 7.5 lower than last year.

Rank: 10th of 31 Mays (67th percentile) and 87th of 365 total, 76th percentile.

No major streaks. 9 of the last 12 anomalies have been less than prior year.

The 60-month trend is quite steeply negative (-0.297491). All the other trend measures are either slightly negative or slightly positive (from -0.0113 to + 0.0343). The 300 month value of 0.0269, however, represents a peak value in the data set for any 25-year period of time. In its history, the low was -0.042.

ARCTIC

rssarcticoverall0906

RSS Arctic Overall Trend

The May anomaly was 44.6. This is lower than last month by 14.3 and lower than last year by 87.1 (hundredths of a degree Celsius, remember).

The May anomaly ranked 14th of 31 Mays (54th percentile) and 126th of 365 total (65th percentile).

The 12-month average anomaly is 47.3. It’s still high, but coming down. This is the lowest 12-month average since the period ending January 2005.

The Arctic has most certainly trended up fairly high over time (overall slope is 0.27081, or 3.25 degrees warming per Century), but the recent trend has been downward:

rssarcticcooling0906

RSS Arctic Flat/Cooling Trend

Currently, we can fit a flat/negative trend line back to May 2001.

Other Trends:
The current 60-month trend line is very negative (-0.42606, -5.11/C). Obviously, this fluctuates a lot, but it is currently the lowest since January 2000.

120-month: The 10-year trend is still very positive (+0.25886, 3.11/C), but is at its lowest level since the period ending December 2004 and is trending down.

180-month: the 15 year trend is even higher (0.30129, 3.62/C) but has also trended down, and is at its lowest value since August 1998.

240-month: The 20-year slope is the steepest positive slope (0.43829, 5.26/C). Despite its high slope, it’s actually trending down and is at its lowest value since the period ending October 2005.

300-month: The 25 year slope (0.386403, 4.64/C) is a slight tick up from last month, which had otherwise been its lowest slope value since the period ending January 2007.

360-month: The 30-year vlaue of 0.262441 is a data set low (6 observations).

TROPICS:

rsstropicsoverall0906

RSS Tropics Overall Trend

May anomaly = 8.4. This is down 9.6 from last month and up 42.9 from last year.

It ransk 13th of 31 Mays (58th percentile) and 163rd of 365 total (55th percentile).

The 12-month average of 7.9 is the highest since February 2008.

It is the eight consecutive month with current anomalis greater than previous year.

rsstropicscooling0906

RSS Tropics Flat/Cooling Trend

The tropics show a flat/cooling trend back to March 1996.

Other trends:

60-month: The short-term trend line is very negative (-0.719114, -8.63/C). The steepest negative trend line occurred the period ending September 2008 (-0.814854) and had been the steepest negative trend line since the period ending June 2002.

120-month: +0.076548 (+0.92/C) is the lowest value since the period ending December 2007.

180-month: +0.029744 (+0.36/C) is the lowest value since the period ending September 1994.

240-month: +0.127287 (1.53/C) is the lowest value in the data set, the first data point being December 1998.

300-month: +0.158974 (1.91/C) is the lowest slope value since the period ending January 2005.

360-month: +0.117065 (1.40/C) is the lowest of the 6 observed data points.

Posted in Antarctica, Arctic, Climate Change, Earth, Global Warming, RSS, Science, Temperature Analysis, Tropics | Tagged: , , , , | 10 Comments »

No Warming Trend for Over 12 Years – May 2009 Update on current temps – RSS

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 19, 2009

Yes, it’s true. We’re now at 12+ years and running with a flat trend line. We’ve discussed the viability of statistics like these before. Let me reiterate, because two things will happen with this: (1) pro-AGW theorists will immediately discredit the trend line as “too short” to be statistically viable, and some will actually bizarrely claim that the trend line isn’t factual and they can “prove it” through, for example, an ARMA analysis. (2) Those skeptical of AGW will proclaim warming to be dead.

Addressing the first point, the trend line is what it is. It is certainly within the bounds of good statistics to talk about how there can certainly be flat periods like this within an overall warming trend. Where the argument usually breaks down, though, is that those who point this out consider this an argument for continued warming. It is not. It is an argument for some probability of continued warming, and some probability of a flat line, and some probability of a reversal. These probabilities change over time for both the near term and the long term. The AGW proponents rightfully look at month-to-month changes as not dramatically changing the probability of the long term trends, but they often do so in ways that make you scratch your head. The trend line is a best-fit line. That’s all it is. The r-squared is low. Yep. That means that you could probably tilt the line up or down, without too much difference in the error term. It’s a valid point. What is implied is that the way you’d tip the line is up. But it could go either way. In this debate, I find a lot of valid points being made that are then applied dishonestly to come to a conclusion that is not in line with all the facts. Quite simply, the longer the trend goes where there is no warming, the higher the probability that we are wrong about runaway global warming. But it doesn’t completely eliminate the possibility.

As for the argument that warming has stopped, that’s in the eye of the beholder. Again, there can, in all probability be periods of a lull within a larger trend. Also, a best fit trend line only shows the trend over a particular period of time. In fact, while the 12-year trend is negative, the 10-year trend is positive. That’s because there was a little dip in anomalies between the 10-12 year mark in history that drives the front of the line down. The 10-year line is sure to decrease and go negative by the end of the year (unless anomalies shift upward considerably), but things like that can happen. So, we have a situation where we can say that the trend is negative over the last 12 years, but someone can accurately counter that the trend line is positive over the last 10 years.

There is always an argument about cherry-picking, and which trend is best. AGW proponents used to say that you needed at least 10-15 years of data. That used to be safe, but they never say that anymore. To be fair, though, I usually hear the 30-year period tossed out as the magic number. As best I can tell, there’s no good reason for that other than it has the feel of a long enough time period to matter, it currently gives an answer that supports their conclusion, and people have a tendency to think that only things that happen within the course of their own memory are relevant. However, my own analysis and research has led me to understand that the major Ocean cycles last anywhere from 60 to 100 years, and that these cycles surely help drive global temps. So it seems to me that anything short of 60 years is insufficient to discern the actual temperature trend, that 100 years is better, and more is even better. There will always be some issue with how out of whack the starting point of your trend is with the end point with regard to where we are in the various ocena cycles. Nobody seems to concern themselves with that, but I’ve shown the potential difference on that with the application of sine waves to the temperature anomalies. As far as I’m concerned, going back further is better.

Unfortunately, surface temps are the only measures we have that go back over 100 years. These data are rightly questioned for accuracy. Others have taken up that issue, so I have chosen simply to use the data as it is, simply with the caveat of “let the consumer beware.” The long term trend certainly appears to be up anywhere from 0.4 to 0.5 degrees Celsisus per Century over the full term. But when one accounts for the waves in the data, it has not accelerated as we have been told.

The satellite data have questions as well, but not nearly as many as the surface data. The issue here is that we only have 30 years to work with. So, that all said, I now get to showing you the updated RSS data.

Edit: It was noted that I failed to provide the link to the RSS data used in this post. My apologies. The link can be found to the right. Click on “RSS Data.” I often assume followers of this blog know that my sources are listed on the side of the page, but I often get linked to and those who are new to the site may not take the time to look at all the different links, or understand which links relate to a given post. I’ll try to remember to either put links in my posts, or direct people more clearly to the proper link. As an aside, I am often a bit confused about statements along the lines of “what makes Joe some kind of authority?” What confuses me is that my posts are not really anything more than data crunching that is presented for all to see. As an actuary, I do have some authority as it relates to helping people understand the statistical significance of what’s being presented, but I claim no particular authority on climatology. But the data isn’t an argument about climatology. It is a presentation of actual trends. My sources can be checked, and anyone else can duplicate exactly what I’m doing, check my accuracy, and correct as necessary. Questions of authority when presenting trend lines, in my opinion, simply show an unwillingness to absorb the information that’s being presented. Conclusions about the data can certainly differ, drawing upon other knowledge. But to just dismiss the trend because it’s “The Diatribe Guy” is pretty weak.

RSS Overall

Overall slope RSS. Over 30 years with a trend at about 1.5 degrees C per Century.

RSS Flat

Here is that 12 year + 2 month flat/cooling trend I mentioned.

Current: The current anomaly for April is 0.2020 (in degrees Celsius).

Rank: The current anomaly ranks 11th out of 31 April anomalies (64th percentile); it ranks 102nd of 364 total anomalies (71st percentile).

Averages: The twelve month average = 16.8, which is the highest such average since the period ending April 2008. The most recent minimum average of 7.9 occurred last October.

Consecutive streak:This is the 6th consecutive anomaly higher than the previous year.

You may be looking at the increasing averages and consecutive streaks and asking, “Hey, Joe. How can the flat/cooling period actually have gone further back to March 1997 when we see higher anomalies over the last few months from prior year?” Good question. Thanks for asking. The recent anomalies are higher than prior year, and while that certainly will affect the trend line as far as it goes, the entire period is affected by the relative level of all periods within the data set. So, there is some positive anomaly that would drive the overall slope of the line higher, or move the period forward. Theoretically, that could be a lower anomaly that the previous year’s if the prior year values were very high. Lower from prior year or not, if the current value is still much higher than most anomalies, and in particular the front-end anomalies, then you will see an impact on the potential length of the line. What we see here is that a year ago we had some much lower anomalies than in recent years. The current values are a little above average compared to history (see ranks) and the trend line continues to lengthen. I took a quick look at the 10-year line, for example, to see what the next anomaly would need to be just to keep the slope the same next month. The anomaly would need to double. So, we could see a higher anomaly next month and still see a decrease in slope. It’s all in the math.

Trends: I won’t say too much about these. I’ve blabbed enough already. Presented here are the raw slopes for 60 month, 240 month, and 300 month periods. I presented the cycle of slope values for 120 month slopes, and presented a peak recent historical slope for the 180 month period. here they are:
Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Cycles, Earth, Global Warming, RSS, Science, Temperature Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , | 15 Comments »

Follow Up to the RSS Temperature Data

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on February 9, 2009

I had some confusion about the results of the RSS anomaly data as it regarded the Continental U.S. The anomaly was a significant increase from December, and was an overall positive 0.358. This was on the heels of some very cold weather throughout much of the U.S. In some places it was a record cold January. I was surprised to see a positive anomaly.

I sent a missive to RSS in hopes of some explanation, as follows:

Dear sirs,

I have a layman’s interest in reviewing the data you release each month, particularly on the TLT data, since that most corresponds with land and surface temperature measures.

I have my own opinions about global warming, but primarily I just enjoy seeing the data and presenting the information for lay readers like myself, on a blog entitled https://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com.

The information I last used was from this source:
ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_2.txt

Thank you for your service in this regard. Occasionally, someone not fully versed in the ins and outs of this technology gets a little confused by the numbers. I do keep an eye on the NOAA climate maps, which I understand are unofficial, throughout the month. That, along with simple knowledge of weather throughout the month in the United States, has me a bit confused by the anomaly for the Continental U.S. for the month of January.

I live in the Midwest, and the entire region was below normal for nearly the entire month of January. I know that the East and Southeast also had its share of below normal temps. Tracking the NOAA maps showed a lot of purple and blue on a weekly basis over wide swaths of the U.S.

NOAA is based on surface station data. So, can you please explain to me in simple terms what drove the significantly higher anomaly in January over December for the Continental U.S.? Is it a difference between the surface and the lower tropospheric measure? Did heat in the West offset the cold in the East?

Any information you can provide would be useful, and if I may, I would like to pass the information on to my readers.

Any help you can offer is greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Joe Tritz

I received a timely response from Marty Brewer, pointing me to a very cool image file. It shows that the Eastern U.S. was indeed cold, but the Western U.S. was quite warm. Interestingly, the area over the Pacific is warm, even though there are negative anomalies for both the PDO and ENSO indices. Anyway, Marty’s response was:

Hi Joe,

Take a look at the monthly images:
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html?channel=tlt

Click Anomaly.

In Jan 09, it looks like the U.S. west was as hot as the east was cold, maybe hotter.

Marty

You can follow the link above, but I have also placed the image here:
rssjananom

Posted in RSS, Temperature Maps | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

A Strange Thing Happened on the Way to Global Cooling… (February 2009 Update on Global Temperature – RSS)

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on February 5, 2009

One of the things that got me interested in looking at the trends and doing analysis on the actual temperature numbers was because the story I saw painted by looking at the data was not at all the story I heard painted on the evening news. One thing that has upset me about this whole ordeal is the willingness of AGW proponents to be openly hypocritical. For example, when there is a drought or wildfire in some region, they have no problem pointing to Carbon Dioxide as the culprit, as if these things only first started happening in the 20th Century. But, if it snows in Dubai, it’s brushed aside as an interesting anecdote. Or, worse yet, we are told that it is perfectly consistent with some theory or another on global warming and/or climate change. We are told that only long-term trends mean anything, and short-term trends are just noise.

I am, admittedly, a skeptic. There are many reasons why I am skeptical about the anthropogenic contribution to the warming climate. There are many reasons why I am skeptical about the veracity of the data itself. I am not, however, skeptical about the fact that there has been a warming trend over the last century+. The data is clear. But it is not a catastrophic warming, and I see no particular reason to believe it’s due in its entirety to man-made causes. That is my position. I understand that we do not all agree. I also happen to believe that we are headed for a cooling period over the next two, 3, or 4 decades. This is based on historical observation of different things that I’ve presented here.

But what I do not want to do is start making lame excuses for my position. I prefer to let the data play out. I’m either right or I’m wrong.

And so, the last thing I do is run away from new data that doesn’t fit in conveniently with my position.

The fact is, the latest RSS temperature anomaly is a somewhat surprisingly warm one. I say “somewhat surprisingly” in the context of the data trends and in the context of things like La Nina, cooler PDO, and a non-increasing AMO, on top of a quiet sun for an extended time period. However, for those of us who kept an eye on the different temperature maps, the result was not necessarily surprising. There were a number of warm anomalies around the globe during the month, so the result was not a surprising one in that respect. But had you asked me before the month began if I could foresee that jump, I would have said “no.”

But it is what it is. I could talk about how one month doesn’t make a trend and isn’t in and of itself indicative of anything. And I’d be correct. But this is the same argument AGW proponents use whenever there’s a cold month. Instead, I just prefer to add the data point and see what the trends say.

There are a couple points I’d like to add, though: The first is a point that I saw made on the Watts thread regarding the RSS anomaly. It’s right on the mark, in my opinion. (I’m paraphrasing. I’d link to it, but I’m getting an error at the moment trying to head over to Watts). Basically, the point is that we skeptics are in a somewhat unusual psyche. Most of us actually want warmer weather because we believe the warming is a natural cycle, and is overall very beneficial to us – less disease, longer growing seasons, etc. And yet, we somewhat perversely find ourselves rooting for cooler weather simply to try and quiet the AGW crowd. Our concern is that they are going to do stupid things like implement horrible and costly policy in the name of combating global warming, and that this risks higher taxes, limitations on freedoms, more regulation, and deficit spending all for a non-existent problem. So, it’s a conundrum to us that we at once want warmer weather and colder weather. We can’t win.

On a personal note, I can’t tell you how much this latest anomaly sucks. I happen to be in a region where we have experienced one of the coldest Januaries on record. I am not exaggerating the brutality of the cold. We had a number of -10 to -20 F days, with dangerous wind chill. If we’ve had any above-normal days, they were sparse and short-lived. My heating bill is through the roof. I hate cold weather. So, this anomaly is the worst of both worlds for me. Not only do I not get the skepticist benefit of a cold anomaly, but I did not get the personal benefit of the warm anomaly. My region is purple on the map, and has been all January. This, while I flip around the rest of the globe to see mostly pink or red. Frankly, I’m a little P.O.’d by the unfairness of it all! Wisconsin has been below normal now for a year and a half. I freakin’ want some of these warm anomalies to come my way.

Well, anyway, let’s get to the data…

Data
The RSS data can be found here.

Data Point
The January anomaly was 0.322. It is the highest anomaly since August 2007.

The current anomaly is 0.388 degrees Celsius warmer than January 2008, and is 0.150 higher than December 2008.

Streak
This is the third consecutive year-over-year increase. It is the seventh consecutive anomaly over a value of 0.14, following eight consecutive anomalies under that value.

Average
The 12-month average is 12.4, which has increased back up to the level for the period ending June 2008. The average increased from 9.2 a month ago.

Trends
Overall:
The overall trend is now a little over 30 years long for the RSS satellite data. The current slope in terms of 0.01 degrees Celsius per month is 0.13045. This equates to a rate of 0.1565 degrees Celsius per decade.

rssoverall0901

Current flat/cooling trend
The furthest back we can go to see an essentially flat line with a slightly negative slope (non-warming trend line) is April 1997. The period length for this measure stayed the same this month. Due to the higher anomaly, the front month moved forward one month, while we added January 2009 at the end. So, we’re still at a length of time 2 months shy of 12 years.

rsscooling0901

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Earth, Global Warming, RSS, Science, Temperature Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

Congratulations, RSS!!! 30 Years of Data (aka: January 2008 Update on Global Temperature – RSS)

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on January 7, 2009

RSS Anomaly released for the month of December has been released. As you can see by the title, this is a milestone for the RSS readings. We seem to like that magical 30 year measure for temperature. Well, now we can add RSS to the sets of temperature measures that give us a 30 year trend. Woo hoo!

Data
The RSS data can be located here.

December’s Data Point in context:

  • The anomaly for December was 0.174 (in terms of degrees Celsius).
  • This reading was 0.078 degrees warmer than December 2007
  • It was 0.047 degrees cooler than November 2008
  • The anomaly ranks as the 117th warmest anomaly of the 360 data points
  • It ranks as the 10th warmest December of the 30 Decembers on record

Streaks

  • The anomaly reading shows a second consecutive year-over-year warmer anomaly reading, following a stretch of 14 consecutive cooler readings.

Average

  • The 12-month average anomaly is 0.092, which is up a bit from last month’s average, and the recent low point of 0.079 two months ago.

Slopes and Charts

The overall RSS trend over the full 30 years shows overall warming. Let's hear it for 30 years of satellite readings!

The furthest back we can extend a non-warming line is to March 1997 (11 years, 10 months.) With the new data point, we actually extended the front end another month from the previous trend line. So, along with the new endpoint, we added two months to the trend line this time around. , it stayed the same while we added one month to the end. So, could we reach 12 years of no warming next time around? Well, it is possible, but it would require an anomaly of 0.083 or lower. That hasn't happened in 6 months, but prior to that we had six months in a row of anomalies beneath that level. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Climate Change, Cycles, Earth, Global Warming, RSS, Science, Temperature Analysis | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

December 2008 Update on Global Temperature – RSS

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 8, 2008

RSS Anomaly released for the month of November has been released. This allows me to once again engage in my graphoholic tendencies…

Data
The RSS data can be located here.

November’s Data Point in context:

  • The anomaly for November was 0.216 (in terms of degrees Celsius).
  • This reading was 0.085 degrees warmer than November 2007
  • It was 0.035 degrees warmer than Octber 2008
  • The anomaly ranks as the 94th warmest anomaly of the 359 data points
  • It ranks as the 8th warmest November of the 30 Novembers on record

Streaks

  • The anomaly reading broke a streak of 14 consecutive year-over-year cooler anomaly readings, which is tied for the second-longest such streak in the data set.

Average

  • The 12-month average anomaly is 0.086, which is up a bit from last month’s recent low point of 0.079.

Slopes and Charts

The overall RSS trend is 0.13109, which is the equivalent of 1.57 degrees warming per Century. We're one month short of a full 30 years, so starting next month we can start to evaluate the 30-year slope values.

The furthest back we can extend a non-warming line is to April 1997 (11 years, 8 months.) While the front end has not extended back since last month, it stayed the same while we added one month to the end.

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Quick Note on RSS November Anomaly

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 4, 2008

I just happened to notice that the RSS anomaly was published (the data source is under my RESOURCES area to the right, or click here). The anomaly actually came in slightly higher than October’s, at 0.216. This is also higher than the November 2007 anomaly.

I’ll work on the charts later.

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November 2008 Update on Arctic Temperature – RSS

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on December 1, 2008

Arctic Region:

October Anomaly

  • Anomaly value = 0.452, in degrees Celsius
  • Of 358 total anomalies in the data, it ranks 120th
  • Of 30 October anomalies, it ranks 10th.
  • October’s anomaly is 0.45 degrees cooler than October 2007 and 0.155 degrees cooler than September 2008

Averages and trends

  • 12-month average anomaly is 0.514, which – other than the 51.3 average at the end of August 2008 – is the lowest average since the period ending January 2005.
  • The slope since inception (January 1979) is 0.27989 degrees Celsius per month, which corresponds to a warming rate per Century of 3.36 degrees. The most horrific global warming figures are extrapolated from the observed warming in the Arctic over the last few decades. And it surely has warmed fairly significantly. However, this is a regional phenomenon. The Antarctic has actually cooled slightly in the last 30 years and nobody seems to really care all that much about that. It is very obvious from the RSS data differentiation by latitude that global temperature changes are a little more complicated than the simplistic “global” notion we so often hear about.
  • We can fit a negative trend line going as far back as March 2002. So, while the anomalies are still warm, they have stopped increasing in the last 6 and a half years.
  • There is no significant recent streaks of consecutive cooling or warming stretches over previous year.
  • Last 60-month slope = -0.0053. While negative, and while recent anomalies haven’t been real high, the trend line has increased because there is a dropping off of some very high anomalies on the front end of the trend line. Given the short line and the widely fluctuating anomalies in this region, the 60-month trend whips around quite a bit. In two months, I expect it to actually swing positive, but then it should flip back to a negative trend line.
  • Last 120-month slope = 0.4589. This is a significant 10-year trend line. Since the last 5-years show a negative trend line, this still provides insight into the fact that the recent anomalies have still hovered higher than they were a decade ago. This helps explain the continued decline of ice mass through summer of 2007. Even though the Arctic was starting to cool down from its peak, it was still warm enough to continue increasing the melt. But we can now see, based on the 12-month average being the lowest in a while, that the overall anomalies have come down over the last 3 years, and we saw a higher ice mass at minimim in 2008 than 2007, and we saw a more rapid recovery into the winter. I have included a snapshot of the ice extent as of the end of November, from the IJIS site, below. You may view a current snapshot by clicking the IJIS link under “Resources” on the right of this page.
  • Arctic Ice Extent since 2002. The 2008 value is as of November 30, 2008.

  • Last 180-month slope = 0.4222, the lowest such slope since the period ending February 2003.
  • Last 240-month slope = 0.4725, – the value of this trend line has been relatively stable since December 2005.
  • Last 300-month slope = 0.3895, – the value of this trend line has been relatively stable since December 2006.

Overall trend since 1979 for the Arctic shows significant warming. This level of warming has been unique to the Arctic, and has finally subsided, at least for now, over the last 6 years.

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Posted in Arctic, Climate Change, Earth, Global Warming, RSS, Science, Temperature Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »