Digital Diatribes

A presentation of data on climate and other stuff

Temperature Trends for the last 60 months – HadCrut

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 15, 2012

While no conclusions regarding long-term trends can or should be suggested based on short-term trends, we can at the very least look at them to get insight on the current direction of temperature. It is a footnote of interest, but I’ll present it just the same.

The Data
Most pertinent points I wanted to make on the data were presented in the previous post, so please refer to that for the details.

What is presented here is the trend over the last 60 months, which had been an upward slope that was brought back down thanks to the cooler anomalies (on a year over year basis) of the last 16 months. For all practical and measurable purposes, it shows pure flatness over the five year period, meaning no significant indicated trend in the temperatures over that period one way or the other.

Chart below:

5 year Trend - HadCrut

Trend Line over Last 60 months – HadCrut

The next chart is simply a point of comparison. The highest slope value in recent years occurred with the 5-year period ending April 2004. The five year slope does wobble a lot thansk to it’s shortness. Every data point has higher influence than in longer curves, so to see the change from 2004 is not necessarily a surprise, but it is worth noting that we have not seen a trend line reach those levels in 8 years.

Recent Peak trend line

Peak 60 Month Trend Line

Finally, I just wanted to graphically show what has transpired with the slopes over the last number of months in response to the lower anomalies. A longer view chart would have gone back to the 2004 peak to show the continual decline in slope measurements.

Trend in recent 60-month slopes

Trend in recent 60-month slopes

Posted in Data, Global Warming, HadCrut, Information, Science, Temperature Analysis, Updates | 1 Comment »

Overall HadCrut trends as of March month-end 2012

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 14, 2012

Time for an update on the HadCrut data set.

I plan on submitting separate posts over the next few days taking a look at the different time horizons on the charts.

Today’s submission is just the overall total trend, and the current longest period length of time backwards from current that demonstrates a flat or cooling trend in the data.

The Data
As can be expected, the overall chart from inception does not change much over the course of a year, but it is presented for completeness. However, I’ll speak to a few of the numbers as they’ve transpired since my last series of posts last year.

From December 2010 through December 2011 we had 13 consecutive months where the anomaly was lower than the previous year. As such, the trend lines have predictably declined in magnitude over that period of time. The January anomaly of 21.7 was slightly above the 2011 January value of 19.4, otherwise we’d be at a stretch of 16 consecutive cooler months on a year over year basis.

From inception (January 1850) through March 2012 the slope values are as follows:
Per month (degrees Celsius): +0.0003757
Per year: +0.0045085
Per Decade: +0.0450854
Per Century: +0.4508542

As demonstrated in the past, the temperature has not increased in anything resembling a straight line, but instead has seemed to follow a cyclical pattern that I have fitted relatively closely to a dual sine wave. However, the wave fits along the increasing line, so there does seem to be an upward trend in temperature that follows the straight line fairly well over that period. But it is less than a half-degree per Century rate.

The current anomaly of 30.50 is the lowest March anomaly since 1999.

Chart below:

Global Temps - HadCrut

Overall Trend in Global Temps – HadCrut

The other chart I’ve updated and am presenting here is the latest period of flat or cooling temperature anomalies. This is just using the latest month as an endpoint and seeing how far back we can draw a line where we can demonstrate straight from the data that temperature has not increased during that period. By implication, we must understand that drawing the line back to any prior point will show that there is a positive slope to average temperature. So, this is not attempting to demonstrate that temperatures have not increased at all over time, just that there has not been warming for some period of time. The period we can go back to under this measure is January 1997. In other words, we can draw a line back more than fifteen years such that the best fit trend line shows no warming in the global temperature anomalies.

Looking at the chart, At the time of my update last year there had been an increasing trend in the anomalies, elevating the trend line a bit. Since then, it’s been continually lower, and you can see the impact of the lower temps on the graph. Chart below:

Current Flat Trend Period - HadCrut

Current Flat Trend Period – HadCrut

I’ll be updating the 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 year trend lines over the next couple weeks. I am also planning on doing a 60-year line, since that seems to be about the period of time that a full cycle takes place.

Posted in Data, Global Warming, HadCrut, Information, Science, Temperature Analysis, Updates | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 04/30/2012]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 11, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 03/31/2012 settled by End of Day 04/30/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
01/03/2012 SELL 0.01 audcad 1.04437 04/03/2012 1.02747 +5.44
01/25/2012 BUY 0.01 usdmxn 13.0258 04/16/2012 13.2301 +3.15
02/14/2012 SELL 0.02 audjpy 83.803 04/10/2012 82.711 +10.21
03/06/2012 SELL usdcnh 6.31330 04/16/2012 6.30305 +1.63
03/14/2012 SELL 0.01 usdhkd 7.76142 04/16/2012 +0.43
03/26/2012 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.20423 04/16/2012 +1.46
03/28/2012 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.7769 04/03/2012 +3.09
03/29/2012 SELL 0.01 audjpy 84.769 04/06/2012 84.095 +7.06
03/30/2012 SELL 0.02 audnzd 1.26125 04/09/2012 1.25440 +10.11

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 03/31/2012, settled by end of day 04/30/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
04/02/2012 BUY 0.02 nzdusd 0.82293 04/13/2012 0.82762 +10.40
04/04/2012 SELL 0.02 eurgbp 0.82847 04/05/2012 0.82508 +10.74
04/05/2012 SELL 0.01 eurtry 2.34555 04/25/2012 2.33861 +5.60
04/09/2012 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 106.420 04/10/2012 105.959 +5.67
04/13/2012 SELL 0.02 usdsgd 1.25048 04/25/2012 1.24414 +10.01
04/16/2012 SELL 0.01 chfjpy 87.766 04/16/2012 87.326 +5.47
04/17/2012 SELL 0.02 usdcad 0.98839 04/25/2012 0.98300 +11.04
04/20/2012 BUY 0.02 audusd 1.03847 04/27/2012 1.04439 +13.31
04/25/2012 SELL 0.01 usdtry 1.7683 04/27/2012 1.7594 +5.09
04/27/2012 BUY 0.02 gbpusd 1.62275 04/30/2012 1.62785 +10.20
04/30/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 130.065 04/30/2012 129.661 +5.06

New Orders Since end of day 03/31/2012, still outstanding as of end of day 04/30/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
04/10/2012 SELL 0.01 cadjpy 80.476
04/23/2012 SELL 0.02 eurgbp 0.81558
04/25/2012 SELL 0.02 eurcad 1.30131
04/25/2012 SELL 0.02 eurchf 1.20110
04/27/2012 SELL 0.02 euraud 1.27019
04/27/2012 SELL 0.02 usdchf 0.90502
04/30/2012 SELL 0.02 usdjpy 79.846

Carried Orders Since before end of day 03/31/2012, still outstanding as of end of day 04/30/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.85187
12/20/2011 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.29814
01/03/2012 BUY 0.01 usdcnh 6.31580
01/05/2012 BUY 0.01 usdhkd 7.76620
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 audnzd 1.30351
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 usdtry 1.8710
01/09/2012 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.21285
01/20/2012 SELL 0.01 audjpy 80.768
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 chfjpy 84.072
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 121.973
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 102.192
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 cadjpy 77.562
02/14/2012 SELL 0.01 usdjpy 77.798
03/13/2012 SELL 0.02 eurcad 1.29446
03/14/2012 BUY 0.01 eurchf 1.21465
03/23/2012 BUY 0.01 usdcad 1.00245

Equity Balance @ 04/30/2012: $4,280.28
Current Month Return: 9.423%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +81.332%
Annualized Return: +26.896%
Average monthly return: +2.004%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 11/30/2011: +27.34%
12/1/2011 – 12/31/2011: -5.06%
01/1/2012 – 01/31/2012: +8.15%
02/1/2012 – 02/29/2012: -5.749%
03/01/2012 – 04/30/2012: +10.503%

Journal Notes:

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 03/31/2012]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 11, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 02/29/2012 settled by End of Day 03/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103 03/09/2012 12.6310 +5.96
01/04/2012 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.24819 03/21/2012 1.26557 +3.36
02/01/2012 SELL 0.02 audcad 1.06727 03/06/2012 1.05808 +10.29
02/01/2012 SELL 0.01 audusd 1.06953 03/06/2012 1.05957 +5.25
02/22/2012 BUY 0.01 gbpchf 1.43701 03/01/2012 1.44374 +7.44

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 02/29/2012, settled by end of day 03/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
03/01/2012 BUY 0.01 audnzd 1.28846 03/02/2012 1.29454 +5.08
03/01/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpchf 1.44543 03/08/2012 1.43750 +8.44
03/05/2012 BUY 0.01 eurusd 1.31717 03/08/2012 1.32430 +7.07
03/06/2012 BUY 0.01 nzdusd 0.81535 03/08/2012 0.82582 +10.61
03/06/2012 SELL 0.01 usdtry 1.7838 03/08/2012 1.7750 +5.27
03/06/2012 BUY gbpusd 1.57199 03/08/2012 1.57964 +7.65
03/07/2012 SELL 0.01 audnzd 1.28841 03/13/2012 1.28111 +5.54
03/09/2012 SELL 0.01 audcad 1.05068 03/12/2012 1.04559 +5.01
03/12/2012 SELL 0.01 usdsgd 1.26243 03/19/2012 1.25544 +5.57
03/13/2012 BUY 0.02 audjpy 87.349 03/15/2012 87.775 +11.03
03/14/2012 BUY 0.02 chfjpy 90.222 03/16/2012 90.79 +13.34
03/21/2012 SELL 0.01 audusd 1.04216 03/22/2012 1.03641 +5.34
03/22/2012 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.27437 03/28/2012 +6.96
03/26/2012 BUY 0.02 gbpusd 1.59646 03/30/2012 1.60216 +11.4

New Orders Since end of day 02/29/2012, still outstanding as of end of day 03/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
03/06/2012 SELL usdcnh 6.31330
03/13/2012 SELL 0.02 eurcad 1.29446
03/14/2012 SELL 0.01 usdhkd 7.76142
03/14/2012 BUY 0.01 eurchf 1.21465
03/23/2012 BUY usdcad 1.00245
03/26/2012 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.20423
03/28/2012 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.7769
03/29/2012 SELL 0.01 audjpy 84.769
03/30/2012 SELL 0.02 audnzd 1.26125

Carried Orders Since before end of day 02/29/2012, still outstanding as of end of day 03/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.85187
12/20/2011 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.29814
01/03/2012 BUY 0.01 usdcnh 6.31580
01/03/2012 SELL 0.01 audcad 1.04437
01/05/2012 BUY 0.01 usdhkd 7.76620
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 audnzd 1.30351
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 usdtry 1.8710
01/09/2012 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.21285
01/20/2012 SELL 0.01 audjpy 80.768
01/25/2012 BUY 0.01 usdmxn 13.0258
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 chfjpy 84.072
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 121.973
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 102.192
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 cadjpy 77.562
02/14/2012 SELL 0.01 usdjpy 77.798
02/14/2012 SELL 0.02 audjpy 83.803

Equity Balance @ 03/31/2012: $3,911.68
Current Month Return: 1.010%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +65.758%
Annualized Return: +23.261%
Average monthly return: +1.758%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 11/30/2011: +27.34%
12/1/2011 – 12/31/2011: -5.06%
01/1/2012 – 01/31/2012: +8.15%
02/1/2012 – 02/29/2012: -5.749%
03/01/2012 – 03/31/2012: +1.010

Journal Notes:
Possibly too overloaded on shorting the yen at one point. I’ll be fine, though, because the positions are small (my modus operandi) so while it looks like potential overleverage on JPY, it would really have to jettison into the stratosphere to hurt overall portfolio performance. Been a bit of relief lately on the shorts.

I am always reviewing the situations where I end up with a concentration of exposure to potential overtrading, and this is one of those situations. So I am reviewing how that all set up and have started to scale in a couple changes that I think will limit risk without appreciably affecting results. Time will tell if my perception is correct on that.

Overall I continue to be satisfied with overall performance. It’s certainly human nature to look at individual carried trades that are in a sizeable loss position at the moment, or have been in a consistent loss position since entry and lose sight of the actual overall portfolio results. While those individual problem trades are worth learning from, I also need to accept that to date they have been well offset by all the positive trades that have grown my account to the current point that it has. I don’t want to make corrections that impede those successful trades, even if it means an occasional situation where there are a few bumps in the road. Always an interesting exercise to find a way to strike that balance.

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 02/29/2012]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 8, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 01/31/2012 settled by End of Day 02/29/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99709 02/03/2012 0.99342 +5.43
12/13/2011 BUY 0.01 eurjpy 101.742 02/09/2012 102.651 +9.33
12/23/2011 BUY 0.01 eurcad 1.33078 02/24/2012 1.33881 +5.25
12/27/2011 BUY 0.01 usdjpy 77.859 02/14/2012 78.382 +6.67
01/26/2012 BUY 0.01 usdsgd 1.25483 02/14/2012 1.26744 +9.41
01/30/2012 BUY 0.01 usdjpy 76.310 02/07/2012 76.779 +6.11

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 01/31/2012, settled by end of day 02/29/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
02/01/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpusd 1.58290 02/03/2012 1.57774 +5.10
02/01/2012 BUY 0.01 usdchf 0.91234 02/02/2012 0.91897 +7.18
02/02/2012 BUY 0.02 euraud 1.22658 02/10/2012 1.23521 +15.74
02/03/2012 BUY 0.01 eurcad 1.30512 02/07/2012 1.31267 +7.50
02/03/2012 SELL 0.01 nzdusd 0.83692 02/06/2012 0.83041 +6.44
02/06/2012 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.82745 02/07/2012 0.83245 +7.91
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 eurusd 1.32360 02/10/2012 1.31628 +7.32
02/15/2012 BUY 0.02 euraud 1.22002 02/17/2012 1.22552 +10.44
02/16/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.92569 02/16/2012 0.92090 +5.20
02/17/2012 BUY 0.01 usdcad 0.99509 02/22/2012 1.00073 +5.55
02/21/2012 BUY 0.01 audnzd 1.27757 02/23/2012 1.28347 +5.04
02/24/2012 SELL 0.01 eurcad 1.34338 02/27/2012 1.33837 +5.04
02/24/2012 SELL 0.01 eurtry 2.31720 02/27/2012 2.36833 +5.09

New Orders Since end of day 01/31/2012, still outstanding as of end of day 02/29/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
02/01/2012 SELL 0.02 audcad 1.06727
02/01/2012 SELL 0.01 audusd 1.06953
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 chfjpy 84.072
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 121.973
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 102.192
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 cadjpy 77.562
02/14/2012 SELL 0.01 usdjpy 77.798
02/14/2012 SELL 0.02 audjpy 83.803
02/22/2012 BUY 0.01 gbpchf 1.43701

Carried Orders Since before end of day 01/31/2012, still outstanding as of end of day 02/29/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.85187
12/20/2011 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.29814
01/03/2012 BUY 0.01 usdcnh 6.31580
01/03/2012 SELL 0.01 audcad 1.04437
01/04/2012 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.24819
01/05/2012 BUY 0.01 usdhkd 7.76620
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 audnzd 1.30351
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 usdtry 1.8710
01/09/2012 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.21285
01/20/2012 SELL 0.01 audjpy 80.768
01/25/2012 BUY 0.01 usdmxn 13.0258
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 chfjpy 84.072
02/07/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 121.973
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 102.192
02/08/2012 SELL 0.01 cadjpy 77.562
02/14/2012 SELL 0.01 usdjpy 77.798

Equity Balance @ 02/29/2012: $3,872.57
Current Month Return: -5.749%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +64.06%
Annualized Return: +23.66%
Average monthly return: +1.784%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 11/30/2011: +27.34%
12/1/2011 – 12/31/2011: -5.06%
01/1/2012 – 01/31/2012: +8.15%
02/1/2012 – 02/29/2012: -5.749%

Journal Notes:

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 01/31/2012]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 7, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 12/31/2011 settled by End of Day 01/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
09/16/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.0215 01/26/2012 12.9050 +14.14
12/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.92497 01/26/2012 0.91821 +6.15
12/13/2011 SELL 0.01 usdtry 1.8803 01/03/2012 1.8744 +6.38
12/27/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.9129 01/03/2012 13.7275 +13.72
12/28/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 120.411 01/24/2012 121.145 +9.43

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 12/31/2011, settled by end of day 01/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
01/03/2012 BUY 0.01 usdcad 1.01376 01/05/2012 1.02150 +7.50
01/04/2012 SELL 0.01 gbpchf 1.47333 01/10/2012 1.46539 +8.07
01/05/2012 BUY 0.01 chfjpy 81.262 01/19/2012 82.097 +10.43
01/06/2012 BUY 0.01 eurcad 1.30013 01/09/2012 1.30740 +7.04
01/06/2012 BUY 0.01 gbpusd 1.54129 01/10/2012 1.54658 +5.29
01/06/2012 BUY 0.01 eurjpy 98.192 01/19/2012 99.198 +12.26
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.82374 01/10/2012 0.82818 +6.85
01/11/2012 BUY 0.01 eurusd 1.26837 01/12/2012 1.27498 +6.61
01/12/2012 BUY 0.01 gbpusd 1.52938 01/12/2012 1.53465 +5.27
01/12/2012 SELL 0.01 audusd 1.03699 01/12/2012 1.03193 +5.06
01/13/2012 BUY 0.01 gbpjpy 117.351 01/17/2012 118.046 +9.05
01/16/2012 BUY 0.01 eurcad 1.29028 01/18/2012 1.29834 +7.85
01/23/2012 SELL 0.01 audcad 1.06557 01/24/2012 1.05769 +7.56
01/23/2012 SELL 0.01 nzdusd 0.81046 01/25/2012 0.80499 +5.33
01/26/2012 SELL 0.02 audcad 1.06596 01/30/2012 1.06048 +10.04
01/27/2012 SELL 0.01 eurgbp 0.83984 01/30/2012 0.83599 +6.04

New Orders Since end of day 12/31/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 01/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
01/03/2012 SELL 0.01 audcad 1.04437
01/03/2012 BUY 0.01 usdcnh 6.31580
01/04/2012 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.24819
01/05/2012 BUY 0.01 usdhkd 7.76620
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 audnzd 1.30351
01/09/2012 BUY 0.01 usdtry 1.8710
01/09/2012 SELL 0.01 audjpy
01/20/2012 SELL 0.01 audjpy 80.768
01/25/2012 BUY 0.01 usdmxn 13.0258
01/26/2012 BUY 0.01 usdsgd 1.25483
01/30/2012 BUY 0.01 usdjpy 76.310

Carried Orders Since before end of day 12/31/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 1/31/2012
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99709
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.85187
12/13/2011 BUY 0.01 eurjpy 101.742
12/20/2011 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.29814
12/23/2011 BUY 0.01 eurcad 1.33078
12/27/2011 BUY 0.01 usdjpy 77.859

Equity Balance @ 01/31/2011: $4,108.80
Current Month Return: +8.152%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +74.07%
Annualized Return: +27.91%
Average monthly return: +2.074%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 11/30/2011: +27.34%
12/1/2011 – 12/31/2011: -5.06%
01/1/2012 – 01/31/2012: +8.15%

Journal Notes:
Forex is like the commodities markets. Everything’s basically settled as marked to market at the end of the trading day, so there is no such thing as an unrealized gain or loss. On my taxes, for example, I need to report the balance. This is also why there can be margin calls or automatic closing of your positions if you’re not careful.

So, even though I have carried orders that can be thought of in a sense as “unrealized,” the monetary gains or losses on a given day are considered real.

So, my MTD reflects not only closed positions settled at a profit (or loss, if I ever do that), but also the net change on carried orders from prior month-end.

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 12/31/2011]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 4, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 11/30/2011 settled by End of Day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
11/07/2011 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.22875 12/16/2011 1.22191 +5.38
11/30/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 122.416 12/01/2011 121.949 +5.85

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 11/30/2011, settled by end of day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
12/02/2011 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 105.574 12/02/2011 105.051 +6.72
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurusd 1.33584 12/08/2011 1.34206 +6.22
12/12/2011 BUY 0.01 gbpusd 1.55600 12/12/2011 1.56250 +6.50
12/13/2011 BUY 0.01 chfjpy 82.413 12/15/2011 82.887 +6.05
12/13/2011 SELL 0.02 usdjpy 77.989 12/30/2011 77.309 +16.64
12/14/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 1.04049 12/15/2011 1.03390 +6.40
12/15/2011 BUY 0.02 audusd 0.98813 12/15/2011 0.99356 +10.86
12/21/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpusd 1.57331 12/21/2011 1.56687 +6.44
12/22/2011 SELL 0.02 cadjpy 76.219 12/30/2011 75.747 +11.34

New Orders Since end of day 11/30/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
12/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.92497
12/07/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.85187
12/13/2011 BUY 0.01 eurjpy 101.742
12/13/2011 SELL 0.01 usdtry 1.8803
12/20/2011 BUY 0.01 euraud 1.29814
12/23/2011 BUY 0.01 eurcad 1.33078
12/27/2011 BUY 0.01 usdjpy 77.859
12/27/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.9129
12/28/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 120.411

Carried Orders Since before end of day 11/30/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 12/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103
09/16/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.0215
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99709

Equity Balance @ 12/31/2011: $3,799.09
Current Month Return: -5.06%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +60.95%
Annualized Return: +24.56%
Average monthly return: +1.85%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 11/30/2011: +27.34%
12/1/2011 – 12/31/2011: -5.06%

Overall 2011 Return: +15.47%

Journal Notes:
I will always have losing positions, and I will continue to hold and wait for a change in direction, or maybe at some point decide enough’s enough and I’ll close them. And while I’d love all my positions to make money within a day, week, or month I will evaluate success on cumulative account total, and I simply don’t get too concerned with certain positions that temporarily go the other way, or a month here or there that doesn’t work out.

Could the results just be a random drift with the expectation of an eventual correction? I don’t believe so for a few reasons: (1) my assumption is that retraces that get me into a position are not a 50/50 bet (ultimately) into eventually getting to a winning position; (2) these bets are not equal with respect to time, which means I can take profit as soon as I’m in profit, whereas I do not need to take profit in a losing position at all if I don’t want to. Thus, not all “bets” are equal in nature; (3) practically speaking, losses in these markets will never be infinite. Theoretically, a short could be, but realistically it will not. A long position cannot be. Third, I do reserve the right to ultimately dump a losing trade if I have reason to believe it’s a permanent loser. So, even if (1) and (2) were of no consequence, these limiting factors to the downside immediately render your expected value to be positive.

On the flip side, I do not have infinite capital, so there is the potential for a positive expected value that still results in elimination of my limited capital. I’ve never ignored that possibility. I make no guarantees that this really works at all.

The longer I sustain positive results, the more I do believe in it, but also realize that it takes a long time of consistency to actually prove anything. And some people will never get past the theoretical reasons why they think it won’t/can’t work out. Which is fine. I don’t suggest anybody trade in any way they don’t feel comfortable trading.

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 11/30/2011]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 4, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 10/31/2011 settled by End of Day 11/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
10/26/2011 BUY 0.01 usdtry 1.7557 11/01/2011 1.7857 +14.64
10/31/2011 SELL 0.01 usdjpy 77.189 11/18/2011 76.620 +6.89
10/31/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.86157 11/22/2011 0.86540 +5.92

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 10/31/2011, settled by end of day 11/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
11/01/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpchf 1.41966 11/02/2011 1.41255 +7.93
11/01/2011 BUY 0.01 eurusd 1.36521 11/02/2011 1.37767 +12.46
11/01/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.89501 11/02/2011 0.88341 +13.07
11/01/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.7486 11/01/2011 13.5950 +11.30
11/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 1.02211 11/11/2011 1.01348 +8.60
11/07/2011 SELL 0.02 gbpchf 1.44243 11/21/2011 1.43480 +14.97
11/15/2011 SELL 0.02 usdchf 0.91496 11/30/2011 0.90998 +10.18
11/16/2011 BUY 0.01 audusd 1.01114 11/16/2011 1.01625 +5.11
11/16/2011 BUY 0.01 gbpusd 1.57850 11/18/2011 1.58407 +5.57
11/16/2011 BUY 0.01 audcad 1.03449 11/30/2011 1.04354 +9.97
11/17/2011 BUY 0.02 eurusd 1.34279 11/17/2011 1.35112 +16.66
11/17/2011 SELL 0.02 usdmxn 13.7290 11/18/2011 +13.6425 +12.72
11/17/2011 SELL 0.01 euraud 1.34825 11/29/2011 1.33338 +16.29
11/23/2011 SELL 0.02 usdmxn 14.0945 11/29/2011 13.9595 +19.76
11/23/2011 SELL 0.02 usdcad 1.04595 11/28/2011 1.03276 +26.68
11/25/2011 BUY 0.02 eurusd 1.32475 11/28/2011 1.33431 +19.12
11/29/2011 SELL 0.02 usdjpy 78.230 11/29/2011 77.799 +11.08

New Orders Since end of day 10/31/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 11/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
11/07/2011 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.22875
11/30/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 122.416

Carried Orders Since before end of day 10/31/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 11/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103
09/16/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.0215
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99709

Equity Balance @ 11/30/2011: $4,002.51
Current Month Return: +1.89%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +69.56%
Annualized Return: +28.87%
Average monthly return: +2.13%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 11/30/2011:+27.34%

Journal Notes:

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 10/31/2011]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 4, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 09/30/2011 settled by End of Day 10/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
09/02/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.87695 10/27/2011 0.88034 +5.44
09/09/2011 BUY 0.02 eurusd 1.38658 10/24/2011 1.39348 +14.06
09/09/2011 BUY 0.01 audusd 1.04806 10/27/2011 1.06241 +19.98
09/12/2011 BUY 0.02 audcad 1.02912 10/12/2011 1.03376 +14.33
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.89256 10/21/2011 0.88409 +8.38
09/21/2011 BUY 0.01 audusd 1.01684 10/14/2011 1.02404 +10.17
09/23/2011 BUY 0.01 xauusd 1676.42 10/11/2011 1680.93 +4.38

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 09/30/2011, settled by end of day 10/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
10/12/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpjpy 120.825 10/18/2011 120.225 +7.50
10/12/2011 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 106.969 10/13/2011 105.569 +18.07
10/14/2011 SELL 0.01 eurchf 1.23859 10/20/2011 1.23021 +8.95
10/14/2011 SELL 0.01 eurjpy 106.935 10/17/2011 106.540 +5.06
10/20/2011 SELL 0.01 gbpchf 1.42603 10/20/2011 1.40925 +18.76
10/20/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.6283 10/24/2011 13.4643 +12.40
10/31/2011 SELL 0.01 cadjpy 78.813 10/31/2011 78.280 +6.84

New Orders Since end of day 09/30/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 10/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
10/26/2011 BUY 0.01 usdtry 1.7557
10/31/2011 SELL 0.01 usdjpy 77.189
10/31/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.86157

Carried Orders Since before end of day 09/30/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 10/31/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103
09/16/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.0215
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99709

Equity Balance @ 10/31/2011: $3,928.31
Current Month Return: +24.98%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +66.42%
Annualized Return: +29.00%
Average monthly return: +2.14%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%
10/1/2011 – 10/31/2011: +24.98%

Journal Notes:
Well, I confirmed it. I actually had received an e-mail (I get account balance e-mails every day, so I probably just missed that it was something else).

Dear Trader,

As a result of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, new regulations will be coming into effect on July 16, 2011. All U.S. based retail forex dealers such as FXDD will be prohibited from offering leveraged trading in precious metals to retail clients after Friday, July 15, 2011. As a U.S. based trader, FXDD will no longer be able to offer you leverage based trading of Gold and Silver as of 4 P.M. EDT July 15, 2011.

It is FXDD’s current plan to continue to offer our U.S. based traders the opportunity to trade Gold and Silver, however, on a 1:1 non-leveraged basis, which will require substantially more margin. If you do not have sufficient margin to cover your open metal positions on a 1:1 basis, you will need to reduce your exposure before 4 P.M. on July 15, or risk all remaining open positions in Gold or Silver being closed out automatically and the remaining balances deposited back into your trading account.

The new regulations will not affect other Forex pairs and as always, FXDD remains committed to bringing new and innovative products to our clients.

We appreciate your understanding and loyalty. We look forward to your continued business now and into the future.
Sincerely,

FXDD

So, looks like that’s what happened. Damn, now I’ve got a bunch of money tied up in a non-leveraged asset currently at a loss. I’ll wait it out a bit and see what happens over the next week or two, but this is clearly not the best use of my money.

Well, thank God the government is protecting me from myself. Wouldn’t want to go bankrupt by leveraging a bunch of gold.

My fault, though. Missed the message they sent on it.

Oh, well. So much for that whole thing.

OK, I’m back to my strategy. Looked at the charts and my spreadsheets and now have a number of pending orders at target entry points. Will continue to watch the total number of positions I’m in but now that the margin’s freed up I can get back to things as planned.

I was asked the question as to the average capital tied up on each trade. At 50:1 leverage, my average capital tied up per microlot is a bit light of $35. So, when I target a $5 profit per microlot it is a 14-15% return on actual utilized captial. However, I never have all my capital tied up in margin, so actual returns on total account is far less.

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Forex Account Update as of 4/30/2012 [Through 09/30/2011]

Posted by The Diatribe Guy on May 4, 2012

Continuing my account updating:

OUTSTANDING ORDERS as of End of Day 08/31/2011 settled by End of Day 09/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
08/24/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.4326 09/01/2011 12.3730 +5.60

*Net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees (these can be negative or positive)

New Orders since End of Day 08/31/2011, settled by end of day 09/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of Entry / Lot size / Currency Pair / Entry Price / Date of Settlement / Exit Price / Net Profit
09/02/2011 BUY 0.01 eurusd 1.42110 09/02/2011 1.42752 +6.42
09/05/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.5700 09/07/2011 12.4400 +10.61
09/05/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99248 09/07/2011 0.98629 +6.30
09/06/2011 SELL 0.02 usdjpy 77.479 09/12/2011 77.068 +10.36
09/06/2011 BUY 0.02 eurusd 1.40018 09/07/2011 1.40661 +12.87
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99634 09/13/2011 0.99098 +5.43
09/12/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.85950 09/12/2011 0.86287 +5.34
09/12/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.8792 09/13/2011 12.8007 +6.21
09/13/2011 BUY 0.01 audnzd 1.25341 09/23/2011 1.25895 +4.85
09/14/2011 BUY 0.01 audusd 1.02539 09/15/2011 1.03112 +6.10
09/14/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.9929 09/15/2011 12.8712 +9.69
09/19/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.88542 09/20/2011 0.88076 +5.25
09/19/2011 BUY 0.01 audusd 1.01758 09/20/2011 1.02734 +9.88
09/19/2011 Swap Revision +0.40
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.4487 09/27/2011 13.3390 +8.67
09/21/2011 BUY 0.02 eurusd 1.35926 09/27/2011 +6.57
09/22/2011 BUY 0.01 chfjpy 84.768 09/23/2011 84.845 +0.96
09/22/2011 SELL 0.01 euraud 1.36828 09/27/2011 1.36804 +0.68
09/22/2011 BUY 0.01 audcad 1.00790 09/27/2011 1.01418 +6.44

New Orders Since end of day 08/31/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 09/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
09/02/2011 BUY 0.01 eurgbp 0.87695
09/06/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.82308
09/08/2012 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.86223
09/09/2011 BUY 0.02 eurusd 1.38658
09/09/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.6103
09/09/2011 BUY 0.01 audusd 1.04806
09/12/2011 BUY 0.02 audcad 1.02912
09/16/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 13.0215
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdchf 0.89256
09/21/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.99709
09/21/2011 BUY 0.01 audusd 1.01684
09/23/2011 BUY 0.01 xauusd 1676.42

Carried Orders Since before end of day 08/31/2011, still outstanding as of end of day 09/30/2011
Date of entry / Type of entry / Currency Pair / Lot size / Entry price
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdcad 0.96454
08/04/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 11.8786
08/08/2011 SELL 0.01 usdmxn 12.1198

Equity Balance @ 09/30/2011: $3,143.11
Current Month Return: -20.68%
Initial 10/31/2009 balance: $2,360.46
Current Yield since inception: +33.16%
Annualized Return: +16.91%
Average monthly return: +1.25%

11/1/2009 – 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 – 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 – 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 – 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 – 8/31/2011: +29.80%
9/1/2011 – 9/30/2011: -20.68%

Journal Notes:
Interesting market right now. Apparently, people believe the Fed actions will make the dollar stronger, and not just relative to other currencies, but to other metals. My read on this is it’s a short-term perspective. Since I am trading small lot sizes with a longer-term view that the trends will ultimately continue, I continue to trade according to that mindset. I haven’t budged on that. Unfortunatley what that means at the moment is that I am getting FRIGGIN’ HAMMERED on an unrealized basis. If I’m wrong and this is a long-term new trend, then I will have a difficult time recovering. If I’m right, then the positions I am loading up on will yield a lot of upside potential that will manifest itself at some point in the future.

Getting a lot of exposure on carried trades (all at a current loss). Due to the various position sizes, I’d like to actually trim that back a bit, so I’ll probably take quicker profits than normal on a couple positions, when available.

I have also deleted all pending orders, so I will just be letting these trades ride for the moment.

I’d need quite a swing yet to threaten capital reserves, but I don’t want to be overly stupid here and get into that situation by continuing to trade. If the market stabilizes, then I can reassess when to enter new limit orders.

While I hate seeing negative dollars on my carried trades, these are the weeks that make the market fun. It’s volatile and somewhat random. In my case, I look at it in a “need to spend money to make money” sort of way. I’m buying/selling retraces, and ultimately expect the prevailing long-term trends to continue. Whenever that happens, the account jump will more than offset the decline.

Of course, I could be completely wrong…

In my backtesting before doing this, I did see similar swings occur. This is a stay-the-course strategy that does, of course, carry the risk that it doesn’t bounce back. It is what it is. If and when price bounces back to execution levels, I will recoup the entire 20% I’m down and make additional profit as well. If it doesn’t, I won’t. So don’t be overly surprised if there are very high returns in a month or two at some point, or higher than average returns over a number of months. I guess, by the same token, I shouldn’t be shocked if current trends continue and I lose even more.

I believe the reason I ran into margin issues is that you can no longer buy gold on margin. A few months ago it was posted that Gold would no longer be available for trading via Forex. I was ticked off, and then the date passed, and Gold was still available on my account. So I didn’t really look into it, figuring that the article was overblown or inaccurate or something. In the meantime price shot up and I waited all this time for it to fall. I finally had gold meet my target price and I bought and it executed, so I didn’t think much about it.

When I tried to buy a second position it didn’t let me, which seemed odd. Then I saw my margin, and realized that the difference between equity and margin must have been less than avialable margin requirements allowed. Only later did I start doing the math to realzie that the margin was really, really high. I think what happened is that Gold can now be purchased, but only at full price. So now, for every ounce of gold I buy, it’s tying up $1600-$1700 in margin.

So now I’ve needed to limit my positions so as to not get a margin call, but I’ve pretty much decided that if I need to, I’ll just close my gold position at a loss rather than add additional capital, and then I’m done with trading the metals on Forex, which pretty much sucks. But, I can still trade the currencies at the 50:1 leverage and my required margin will be much lower and allow more flexibility.

I think what happened here is that as part of the Dodd-Frank bill (you know, the one that solves all our financial problems) the ability to trade gold on the Forex market was “eliminated.” I’m guessing that has to do with the leverage, so it appears that my broker still allows trading of the metal, but it’s essentially at full value. Without having done additional research, I’m surmising that this gets around Dodd-Frank, but also pretty much means that it removes a lot of the incentive to trade Gold.

For someone just wanting to trade in and out of gold without carrying the asset, it’s a low-cost way of doing it. But without the leverage, you really need a lot of capital to carry any sizeable positions and you can probably just do better playing the currencies.

Posted in Currency Trading, Forex, Gold, Investing, Trading Strategies | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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