August 2009 Update on Global Temperature – RSS
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on August 21, 2009
Don’t look now, but I’m actually posting a temperature update!
We’re looking at the July anomaly release for Global RSS Data.
Data Point
The July anomaly was 0.392 (or 39.2 in terms of 0.01 C, which is what I’ll use). This is an increase of 23.4 units over last year’s anomaly, and an increase of 31.1 units over June’s anomaly. Perhaps that El Nino that everyone started talking about a while back has had an impact?
Rank
This is the 3rd highest July anomaly in the RSS data, of 31 observations. (90th percentile)
It is the 26th highest anomaly overall in the data set, of 367 observations. (92nd percentile).
It is the 1st most aggravating anomaly for me to observe. July was miserably cold, with record low highs in Wisconsin. I’m simply not catching a friggin’ break with the warmer anomalies. Dear God: If we’re going to be warm, that’s OK. Please afflict Wisconsin with some of it. Thanks!
Average
The 12-month average anomaly ending July 2009 was 20.3. This is now the highest 12-month average since February 2008.
Streaks
After hitting a low with negative anomalies last year, we are now experiencing a streak of 8 consecutive months where the year-over-year anomaly is higher than previous year.
Trends
Overall Trend since inception of RSS data
Recent Non-Warming Trend - over 12 years
The current flat/cooling trend line extends back to February 1998, now making it a twelve and a half year best-fit trend line.
I don’t have a chart for the trend during this decade (January 2001 – current) but the slope of that trend line is currently -0.1303. That equates to a cooling trend of 1.56 degrees Celsius per Century since the start of this Decade, Century, and Millennium.
Other Trend Lines:
60-month: The current slope value of -0.3578 is the lowest value since October 2008, despite the higher year-over-year anomalies. In fact, this is expected to continue to decrease to a level of around -0.42 by year-end, using average anomaly values. The charts presented here show the current trend against the raw data, compared to the peak 60-month trend line from a few years back.
60-month Current Trend Line
60-month Peak Trend
120-month: The current slope value of +0.0360 is the lowest since March 2008. The expectation is that by year-end, this will be negative. The peak sloipe chart is shown, as well as how the slopes have cycled over time.
120-month Peak Trend
120-month Slope Cycles
180-month: The current slope of +0.0721 is a slight uptick from previous month. However, that month was the lowest slope reading since the period ending September 1995. This slope should also continue to fall through the end of the year. I’m projecting a slope value of +0.055 or so. The chart below shows the current trend line.
180-month Current Trend
240-month: The current slope value of +0.1475 is equivalent to previous month. That month had been the lowest value since the period ending April 2001. To provide comparison to how this has fallen, the below chart shows the most recent peak 240-month trend line.
240-month Peak Trend
300-month: The current slope value of +0.1613 is fairly sizeable, equating to 1.94 degrees Celsius per Century. However, it is the lowest slope value since the period ending July 2005. So the rate of warming indicated here has been declining. Below is shown the peak slope as a reference point, and also the cycle of the 300-month slopes over the last few years.
300-month Peak Trend
300-month Slope Cycles
360-month: The current slope value of 0.1263 is slightly up from last month, which had been the lowest of the few points in the data. Shown below are the current trend, the peak value, and the trend of slopes. There is less than a year’s worth of 30-year data points.
360-month Current Trend
360-month Peak Trend
360-month Slope Trend
Have a great weekend!
Digital Diatribes 
jeroen said
have you allready checked out the anomaly map. The antartic is causing the upward trend.
Ben said
Australia is feeling some pretty strong warming at the moment, check this out:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/temp_maps.cgi?variable=maxanom&area=nat&period=week&time=latest
I think El Nino is coming for a visit
John said
Chicago, where I live, also experienced record low high temps. The cold spell ruined several days of planned outdoor swimming, but we had no/low heat related deaths in July.
Mike said
El Nino slowed
I was looking at the near surface termperatures to see whether as I expected, the August “high” was about to come back to normal (although to be honest it looks more like “normal” in past years is rising to meet August’s temperature.
When I suddenly realised that there had been a notable absence of any twitter about El Nino from the global warming hysterics. I thought we were in for a warm winter (but then again the Met Office told us in the UK we would have a BBQ summer – but instead, the only reason you’d light a BBQ is to keep warm!)
And yet again the weather soothsayers seem to be getting it wrong:
http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINSYU00709620090825
The Diatribe Guy said
I hadn’t been keeping track. This is disappointing news. Our summer has been non-existent. My garden proves it – yield is way down and the length of time it is taking to ripen our tomatoes is worrisome. We had a couple days in the 90s in April, and then we went through a May-Jun-July stretch with unbelievably cold temps. We have broken multiple records of “lowest high temperature.” When August hit, we actually were average for about 2 weeks, and it was glorious. That was short-lived. We are now back to 10-15 degrees below average. The projected high temperature for this coming Saturday – August 29 – is 58 degrees! They are actually warning us about the potential for frost. It’s crazy.
So, I was hoping this was all a lag effect from the previous persistent La Nina and that the more recent uptick in SOI indicated that we’d at least get a little relief with a mild winter.
I know this is all regional, and not necessarily an indication of global temps, but our temps in this region have now been persistently below average for two years now. Last summer was nice from mid-June forward, so despite the cold weather to that point, our produce was salvaged. Not so, this year. It’s disappointing, because we freeze and can – or try to – a good portion of our food.
Mike said
It doesn’t rain but it pours – at least for the UK Met Office. Now their much heralded (and apparently useless computer from the BBQ summer is wasn’t … and the 50% of forecasts which they get wrong fro Scotland – my estimate!)
… yes that glorious box that has the ability to … predict that if the temperatuer went up, best guess it will continue going up … that wonderful box of rubbish … is a massive emitter of CO2!!!!!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6812355.ece
The Diatribe Guy said
Mike, that is a hilarious article.
It will be interesting to see who’s more right about the future temperature: me with a $700 laptop and a few spreadsheets, or them.
Bob H said
With the 60 month trend headed down, it doesn’t seem to portend good news. Snow has been early in Wyoming; South America has been cold early and often; Australia has had its share of cold, and then this summer…oh my. With NOAA forcasting a “barbeque winter” and Accuweather forcasting cold and miserable, I would bet on Accuweather since NOAA (and Gavin) have a stake in forcasting warm weather, especially with Copenhagen coming up. It wouldn’t do them any good to show a cold winter for North America. They would probably be burned at the stake by Big AL (CO2 pollution notwithstanding). It would be better for them to have a wrong forcast and claim they were surprised by the weather and that their models allow for such variance.
Well, enough of my ranting. I hope it doesn’t freeze before you get enough of your garden to make it worthwhile.
Mike said
I wouldn’t worry too much about Copenhagen, its going to be a flop:
http://www.cphpost.dk/news/national/88-national/46609-climate-summit-flop-feared.html
Apparently they have “cancelled 20,000 overnight hotel reservations meant for people attending the United Nations Climate Change Conference in December.”
… but then again, all the global warming forecasts seem to be wrong, so guess that means it will be inundated.
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