August 2009 Update on Global Temperature – RSS
Posted by The Diatribe Guy on August 21, 2009
Don’t look now, but I’m actually posting a temperature update!
We’re looking at the July anomaly release for Global RSS Data.
The July anomaly was 0.392 (or 39.2 in terms of 0.01 C, which is what I’ll use). This is an increase of 23.4 units over last year’s anomaly, and an increase of 31.1 units over June’s anomaly. Perhaps that El Nino that everyone started talking about a while back has had an impact?
This is the 3rd highest July anomaly in the RSS data, of 31 observations. (90th percentile)
It is the 26th highest anomaly overall in the data set, of 367 observations. (92nd percentile).
It is the 1st most aggravating anomaly for me to observe. July was miserably cold, with record low highs in Wisconsin. I’m simply not catching a friggin’ break with the warmer anomalies. Dear God: If we’re going to be warm, that’s OK. Please afflict Wisconsin with some of it. Thanks!
The 12-month average anomaly ending July 2009 was 20.3. This is now the highest 12-month average since February 2008.
After hitting a low with negative anomalies last year, we are now experiencing a streak of 8 consecutive months where the year-over-year anomaly is higher than previous year.
The current flat/cooling trend line extends back to February 1998, now making it a twelve and a half year best-fit trend line.
I don’t have a chart for the trend during this decade (January 2001 – current) but the slope of that trend line is currently -0.1303. That equates to a cooling trend of 1.56 degrees Celsius per Century since the start of this Decade, Century, and Millennium.
Other Trend Lines:
60-month: The current slope value of -0.3578 is the lowest value since October 2008, despite the higher year-over-year anomalies. In fact, this is expected to continue to decrease to a level of around -0.42 by year-end, using average anomaly values. The charts presented here show the current trend against the raw data, compared to the peak 60-month trend line from a few years back.
120-month: The current slope value of +0.0360 is the lowest since March 2008. The expectation is that by year-end, this will be negative. The peak sloipe chart is shown, as well as how the slopes have cycled over time.
180-month: The current slope of +0.0721 is a slight uptick from previous month. However, that month was the lowest slope reading since the period ending September 1995. This slope should also continue to fall through the end of the year. I’m projecting a slope value of +0.055 or so. The chart below shows the current trend line.
240-month: The current slope value of +0.1475 is equivalent to previous month. That month had been the lowest value since the period ending April 2001. To provide comparison to how this has fallen, the below chart shows the most recent peak 240-month trend line.
300-month: The current slope value of +0.1613 is fairly sizeable, equating to 1.94 degrees Celsius per Century. However, it is the lowest slope value since the period ending July 2005. So the rate of warming indicated here has been declining. Below is shown the peak slope as a reference point, and also the cycle of the 300-month slopes over the last few years.
360-month: The current slope value of 0.1263 is slightly up from last month, which had been the lowest of the few points in the data. Shown below are the current trend, the peak value, and the trend of slopes. There is less than a year’s worth of 30-year data points.
Have a great weekend!